It’s the 17th Heineken Cup Final this weekend and it’s an all Irish affair as Leinster face Ulster. You’d have got long odds on this match-up before the tournament began, with Ulster ranked as 66/1 outsiders to lift the trophy back in November.
Leinster are in their third final in four years and are favourites to become the first team to retain the Cup since the Leicester Tigers in 2002. However, could Ulster upset the odds at Twickenham on Saturday?

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The first all Irish Heineken Cup final promises to be a great match

Leinster were 5/1 second favourites for the Cup before a ball was kicked last November and are clear favourites to win Saturday’s showpiece at Twickenham. Joe Schmidt’s side have never lost a Heineken Cup final and are bidding for their third victory in just four years.

And, it could be a double triumph for Leinster as they also have a chance of winning the RaboDirect Pro12 league when they take on the Ospreys on 27 May.

The reigning champions have injury concerns over five key players ahead of this Saturday’s final. Wing Luke Fitzgerald is already out of the final and could be joined on the sidelines by Brian O’Driscoll, Rob Kearney, Eoin O’Malley, Gordon D’Arcy and Cian Healy.
Schmidt said: “Eoin doesn’t look too good to be honest. He has had a pretty rough knock on the knee, so he is going off to get scanned hopefully this evening or maybe tomorrow morning.”

It’s been a superb run to the final for Ulster with the Irish side available at a cool 66/1 last November. In Brian McLaughlin the club have an astute coach and it remains perplexing as to why boss David Humphreys intends to stand him down at the season’s close.
As the Scotsman reported: “The Ulster chief executive would be left red faced if McLaughlin’s last act as head coach was to hand him the Heineken Cup with a suggestion as to where he puts it.”
The coach is relaxed that his opponents are favourites for Saturday’s final. He said: “We will be going in as underdogs, but that will not bother us. There is one thing for sure and that is we will give it a real lash, it will be not be for the want of trying.”

Ulster boast the understated Ruan Pienaar at scrum-half and, fired by the volcanic presence of Stephen Ferris from the back row, will provide formidable opposition for their Irish rivals.

Verdict

Let’s not underestimate the challenge facing Ulster this Saturday. Leinster have lost just three matches all season and two of them came in the opening three weeks. They are also unbeaten in a record-breaking 14 straight Heineken matches and, should they win on Saturday, they will become the first team to win every Heineken Cup match in a season since Brive managed it way back in 1997 (playing two fewer games along the way).

Ulster have shown that, on their day, they are a match for anyone but it’s hard to look past the reigning champions for this one. With a core of superb players with big match experience, a win for Leinster would catapult them into the history books as arguably the greatest club side of the Heineken Cup era.

Back Leinster to overcome the 8 point handicap at 10/11.

Leinster v Ulster

Rugby Union Betting

Manchester United did win an FA Cup tie in January, but Manchester City average almost three goals a game at home in the Premier League and have been excellent since losing to a late goal at Arsenal at the beginning of last month, winning five on the spin and only conceding once in the process. Neither Sir Alex Ferguson’s team nor Newcastle have had much more than a sight of goal in their last two games and it’s flying in the face of logic to suggest lowly QPR will fare any better.

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The visitors have lost six away games in a row, including at relegation rivals Bolton and Blackburn, and have only amassed 11 points on their travels so City’s movement in midfield and across the front line will surely prove too much for Mark Hughes’ team and, despite the bluster, Rangers’ fans will probably just be praying that Bolton don’t manager to win at Stoke and pull off a miraculous escape because City are worthy 1/7 favourites to take maximum points and wrap up the title. They may also be worth a bet at 10/11 to win to nil.

Man City v QPR

Manchester United fans will have pocket radios and mobile phones pressed closely to ears at the Stadium Of Light, hopefully awaiting news of a miracle at the Etihad. Management and players will have to concentrate on matters in hand, however, for how sickening would it be to discover QPR had got an unlikely result against Manchester City if United failed to beat Sunderland.

If they concentrate, Sir Alex Ferguson’s team should be capable of fulfilling their side of the bargain on Wearside at 4/9. They’ve won on four of their last six visits to the Stadium Of Light and 12 times on the road this season, more than anyone else, but their last two away games have ended in defeat which looks as though it is ultimately going to cost them the title. Sunderland are no mugs at home and will be backed by a full house in their last outing of the campaign, but their season has rather subsided over the last few weeks. They are now without a win in eight and there are certain to be changes made to the playing staff over the summer by Martin O’Neill. United are 6/4 to win to nil this weekend and the visitors can be backed at 11/10 to be winning at half time and full time.

Sunderland v Man United

The battle for third place is equally intriguing but Arsenal are in pole position, a point ahead of Tottenham Hotspur and two ahead of Newcastle United. Three points against West Bromwich Albion at the Hawthorns would make the efforts of the Gunners’ two rivals academic but that is no foregone conclusion at 4/6 as the home side will want to give new England manager Roy Hodgson a rousing farewell. It would be no surprise if this game ended all-square at 3/1 and that could open the door for Spurs, who have an apparently more straightforward task at home to former manager Martin Jol’s Fulham and should take maximum points at 2/5. Newcastle are reliant on snookers if they are to secure the final automatic Champions League spot but they they’ve already enjoyed a terrific season, whatever the final day’s outcome. However, a trip to Goodison Park is a very tough finish and may be a game too far for Alan Pardew’s men, who looked leg-weary when beaten by Manchester City last weekend. Everton can finish off the Magpies’ faint hopes of dining at the top table next term at 5/4.

Premier League Matches

Djibril Cisse’s last-gasp winner against Stoke last Sunday coupled with West Bromwich Albion’s late equaliser at Bolton means that the west London side need juts a point from their final game of the season to ensure their immediate Premier League future and send Owen Coyle’s team down into the Championship.

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It’s a simple enough equation but, unfortunately, Rangers’ last match of the campaign happens to be at leaders Manchester City, who will win their first Premier League title with a victory. Cisse believes a result at the Etihad will be ‘ sweet revenge’ for QPR boss Mark Hughes, who was sacked by City in 2009 after 18 months at the helm. Many think the Welshman was shabbily treated by Sheikh Mansour and the City board and Hughes, of course, is also a former Old Trafford favourite who would probably like nothing more than to his old team a favour. But, let’s be honest, the stats are stacked against Rangers. Even though ex-City stars Nedum Onuoha, Shaun Wright-Phillips and Joey Barton could all start in Manchester, their team’s away record suggests they aren’t about to become only the second side to take points away from the Etihad. In 18 matches, only Sunderland have managed so much as a draw on City’s home turf.

Rangers are 7/1 to hold on for a draw and 14/1 to gain an unlikely win against Roberto Mancini’s team.

Man City v QPR

Bolton Wanderers will take to the field against Stoke City at the Britannia Stadium knowing nothing less than three points will give them any chance of avoiding the drop. They are 7/4 to achieve that feat but their cause hasn’t been helped by an injury to centre-back David Wheater. The former Middlesbrough defender’s height would have been a big help against City’s towering forward line at set pieces and it’s going to be an uncomfortable afternoon for Wanderers’ fans.

Stoke haven’t been as dominant at the Britannia this season but have still only lost four times. It’s been a busy campaign for Tony Pulis’ men, however, and they’ll be looking forward to their summer holidays more than most. City are without a win in five, which offers some hope for Bolton, but they do usually manage a goal at home and it’s not difficult to see them finding enough to deny Bolton that vital win. The draw, which would relegate Owen Coyle’s men, is 12/5.

Stoke v Bolton

Don’t forget, if a goal is scored in the last fine minutes of any Premier League match this Sunday, we will refund all losing correct score, scorecast and first/last goalscorer singles on that match.

Premier League Matches

Often called the ‘fifth Major’, the world’s leading golfers head to the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass this weekend for the Players’ Championship. It’s the 39th year of a tournament which offers the highest prize fund of any competition.
Only two Europeans have won the tournament in the last quarter of a century although an American hasn’t won at Sawgrass since Phil Mickelson in 2007.

Experience key at Sawgrass
Experience is often a key factor at TPC Sawgrass. Since 2005, the average number of starts for a winner at the Players’ has been 9.57 and 2010 was the first time in 14 years that the scoring average for the tournament broke par.

Luke Donald was T4 at this tournament last year and was runner up at Sawgrass in 2005. It’s not been the best start to 2012 for the former world number one, but Donald makes his tenth start at the course this weekend and could go well at 16/1.

Lee Westwood is another man in good form and whose game suits this course. Third in the Masters, a win in Indonesia and tied for fifth at Quail Hollow last week, Westwood said: “I played well this week aside from some putts, and next week is a golf course I love playing. It suits my game.
“I’ve been in with a chance two or three times around there, so yeah, I’m looking forward to next week.” Westwood tied for fourth at his last appearance in this tournament in 2010 and can be backed at 14/1.

Rory McIlroy is the 9/1 favourite after losing the Quail Hollow play-off last weekend to 40/1 shot Rickie Fowler.

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Sawgrass specialists Crane and Garcia are two to watch

If you want to back a player with a superb recent record on the tough Stadium Course then look no further than the American Ben Crane. Crane finished T6 in 2008, T5 in 2009 and T4 in 2010 and despite a disappointing T45 in 2011 he shot three of his four rounds under par. The 66/1 looks excellent each way value.

Sergio Garcia is first in all-time earnings at TPC Sawgrass with a win in 2008, a solo second in 2007, a T4 in 2002 and last year’s T12. The Spaniard was 12th at the Masters and could give you a good run at 40/1.

Former world number one Tiger Woods is 20/1 to win the Players’ this weekend, although Woods hasn’t the greatest record on this course. His only win in this competition was back in 2001 and so I’d be reluctant to back the erratic Woods at this particular event. Florida resident Ian Poulter has shown glimpses of goof dorm in 2012 and can be backed at 66/1 while last year’s winner KJ Choi is available at 80/1.

Australia’s Jason Day shot 9 under par last year and can be backed at 40/1 while Phil Mickelson was the last American to win the tournament and the 2007 winner can be backed at 16/1.

TPC Sawgrass Betting

Golf Betting

Football

It promises to be a great final day of the Premier League season this weekend with the title, European places and relegation still to be decided.

A win for Manchester City at 1/7 will see them win their first league title since 1968. Roberto Mancini’s side have coped terrifically with the end of season pressure and a home win may also relegate QPR depending on results elsewhere. If you fancy Mark Hughes’ side to pull off a shock result, you can back them at 14/1. There may well be a few optimistic United fans doing just that.

Man City v QPR

If City do slip up, Manchester United can snatch a 20th league title if they win at Sunderland. Martin O’Neill’s side have stuttered of late and United are 4/9 to win and potentially lose the league on goal difference.

Sunderland v Man United

Arsenal remain in pole position to finish third and they’ll do so if they can win at West Brom. Any slip up could let in Spurs if they beat Fulham at White Hart Lane while Newcastle can also sneak a top four finish if they win at Everton at 2/1.

Only a win at Stoke City will be good enough for Bolton to remain in the Premier League – and that’s if QPR can manage to secure a draw at Manchester City. Bolton are 7/4 to win at the Britannia Stadium.

Premier League Matches

Football Betting

Golf

The cream of world golf is in Florida this weekend for The Player’s Championship. Often called the ‘fifth major’, Rory McIlroy is the 9/1 favourite after his play-off defeat at Quail Hollow last weekend.

Phil Mickelson was the last American to win the tournament and the 2007 champion can be backed at 16/1. Luke Donald has two top four finishes at Sawgrass and is available at 14/1 while I also like the chances of the in-form Lee Westwood at 14/1.

Picking a winner of the Madeira Islands Open is a tough call with the field available at 25/1 or better. Bradley Dredge won by eight shots at Santo da Serra Golf back in 2003 and the Welshman is 25/1 here.

Golf Betting

Cricket

The Clydesdale Bank 40 continues this weekend with some intriguing fixtures. Netherlands top their group after two wins out of two and they welcome Middlesex to the Sportpark Duivesteijn on Monday. Sunday’s matches include Warwickshire v Derbyshire, Gloucestershire v Leicestershire and Durham v Somerset.

The IPL also continues this weekend with matches at Chennai Super Kings, the Kolkata Knight Riders, the Rajasthan Royals and Kings Xi Punjab.

Cricket Betting

Tennis

Both the ATP and WTA tours are in Spain this week for the Madrid Open – to be played on unusual blue clay. Novak Djokovic says that he played the best clay court match of his life in last year’s final to end Rafael Nadal’s 37 match unbeaten run on clay and the two are the favourites again this week. Roger Federer plays his first clay court tournament of the season.

The world’s top eight women are also in Madrid with Victoria Azarenka the favourite for the title. Maria Sharapova, Petra Kvitova and Agnieska Radwanska also feature, as does Serena Williams who continues her return from injury.

Tennis Betting

Rugby League

The Carnegie Challenge Cup reaches the quarter final stage this weekend.

There’s a potential giant killing on Friday evening as little Leigh take on Superleague champions Leeds Rhinos. Saturday sees two big rivals go head to head as Wigan welcome St Helens and I fancy the home side to win this one.

There’s also a great looking tie on Sunday as fourth place Catalans Dragons host third place Warrington and this could be a tough match for the Cheshire side. The final tie sees Huddersfield take on London Broncos and the Yorkshire side should book their place in the semi-finals.

Rugby League Betting

Rugby Union

It is play-off time in both the Magners League and the Aviva Premiership this weekend after the final semi-final berths were decided last week.

Even though they topped the regular season table, Harlequins face an awkward tie on Saturday as they host Northampton Saints. Quins are the favourites to progress to the final but Jim Mallinder’s side are in good form right now and can be backed at 10/11 with a three point start.

The other semi-final sees Leicester the favourites to overcome Saracens.

Ospreys finished four points ahead of Munster in the regular season and the Irish side are the underdogs here. I fancy Munster to win this one at 10/11 with a four point start. Heineken Cup favourites Leinster host Glasgow in the other semi-final and the Irish side can be backed at 10/11 to win by more than thirteen points.

Rugby Union Betting

Horse Racing

Haydock Park hosts a mixture of flat and jumps racing this Saturday including the Swinton Hurdle. Ascot hosts the seven furlong spring the Victoria Cup where Emilio Largo, Firebeam and Primaeval are the 9/1 ante-post favourites.

Elsewhere, there is racing on Saturday from Nottingham, Warwick, Hexham, Lingfield Park and Thirsk.

Racing Betting

Liverpool fans probably feel a little aggrieved that their team didn’t take Chelsea to extra time at least in Saturday’s FA Cup Final at Wembley. Did Andy Carroll’s late header cross the line? Blues’ keeper Petr Cech was adamant it didn’t and the officials agreed. TV replays also appeared to back up their judgement however goal-line technology would have settled the issue immediately – let’s hope the bureaucratic wheels are already in motion at FIFA and the outcome of next season’s important games won’t be so dependant on the snap decision of a possibly unsighted individual.

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Only three days after their epic duel, it seems unfair that the teams have to do it all again at Anfield in the Premier League. There’s virtually nothing to play for now for Kenny Dalglish’s men, though if they were to win both remaining games they could still conceivably finish ahead of arch-rivals Everton in the table. Chelsea’s hopes of fourth spot all but disappeared with last week’s defeat by Newcastle and their attention will now be focused on the Champions League Final with one trophy safely in the cabinet so expect Roberto Di Matteo to name an unfamiliar line-up on Merseyside as he tries to wrap his key players in cotton wool between now and their date in Munich as their were some very weary legs climbing the steps to the royal box at Wembley on Saturday evening.

Former Anfield stars Raul Meireles and Fernando Torres are likely to feature at Anfield as both only made the substitutes bench in the FA Cup Final. There should also be rare starts for Florent Malouda and Ryan Bertrand, while Andy Carroll could start for the Reds after making a stunning impact at Wembley in the second half. Dirk Kuyt may well be on his way during the summer and could be making his farewell appearance in front of the Kop and Jamie Carragher will probably earn a recall in defence but expect a slightly subdued atmosphere at Anfield for a match that means very little in real terms.

It’s not in Chelsea’s make-up nowadays to roll over and their fringe players would probably walk into most teams in the Premier League so, even though Liverpool will want some revenge for Saturday, it’s not difficult to see the Londoners picking up a point as they’ve still only lost twice under Di Matteo - the draw is 12/5. Liverpool to score exactly one goal is 6/4 and it’s Evens that the second half will be the one that produces most goals.

Liverpool v Chelsea Betting

Premier League Matches

The domestic cup competitions have been very good to Liverpool this season, which as just as well as their Premier League form has swung from the sublime to the ridiculous.
Tuesday’s home defeat by Fulham was again accompanied by murmurings of discontent on the Kop, though Kenny Dalglish made nine changes that night from the team that had won impressively at Norwich just three days earlier and you wouldn’t have imagined any of the stand-ins did enough to force themselves into the manager’s thinking for Wembley against the Cottagers.

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Reds’ fans will be out in force again on Saturday evening to see if their team can record a third win under the Wembley arch this season and pick up a second piece of silverware from what has been a frustrating overall campaign. Liverpool, of course, have already won the Carling Cup, against Championship side Cardiff City on penalties. They may have been pretty woeful at Anfield lately (they haven’t won a game at home since the FA Cup quarter-final in March) but seem able to play with more freedom on the road. Indeed, they’ve already beaten Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, though that was long before Roberto Di Matteo transformed the Champions League finalists from a bunch of malcontents into heroes.

Chelsea’s hopes of a top four finish were effectively ended by Wednesday’s defeat by Newcastle but the Blues can probably be forgiven that result considering what they’ve achieved over the last couple of weeks. The likes of Ashley Cole, Frank Lampard and Juan Mata will almost certainly be recalled to the Blues’ starting line-up at Wembley and Fernando Torres and Raul Meireles will be anxious to put up a good show against their former employers. Chelsea may have conceded twice against Newcastle but, in general, their defence has been superb over the last few weeks despite injuries to David Luiz and Gary Cahill. It’s unlikely either of the latter will be fit enough to start at Wembley and Di Matteo must decide whether to play Jose Bosingwa or Branislav Ivanovic at the heart of his defence alongside John Terry.

With Terry and Ivanovic suspended for the Champions League Final, as well as Mereiles and fellow midfielder Ramires, this is their last chance to play on the big stage this season and they’ll be more fired up than most to make it an evening to remember. Chelsea were more impressive in their semi-final against Spurs than Liverpool were in their narrow defeat of Everton and recent form and the league table suggests that the Londoners will come out on top. Chelsea are 7/5 to win in 90 minutes and may just be worth a bet at 7/2 on the handicap giving away a one-goal start as the Liverpool defence can leak like a sieve once breached. Both teams to score is 8/11 and we’ll refund all losing correct score, scorecast and first/last goalscorer singles should Luis Suarez score at anytime. The controversial Uruguayan is 16/5 to score first for his team.

Chelsea v Liverpool Betting

Football Betting

]]> http://www.paddypower.com/betting/football/fa-cup/chelsea-v-liverpool-2012-fa-cup-final-betting-tips-may-5th.html/feed/ http://www.paddypower.com/betting/football/premier-league/newcastle-v-man-city-betting-tips-may-6th.html http://www.paddypower.com/betting/football/premier-league/newcastle-v-man-city-betting-tips-may-6th.html#comments Thu, 03 May 2012 11:06:45 +0000 Vinay http://www.paddypower.com/betting/?p=28281 Premier League – Newcastle United v Manchester City Preview

Newcastle’s victory at Chelsea on Wednesday has certainly put the cat among the proverbial pigeons.

Having built up the Manchester derby on Monday as the Premier League title decider, the media is having to backtrack as the realisation has dawned that City are far from certain to pick up three points at the Sports Direct Arena this weekend. We do have Roberto Mancini’s men at 8/13 but it’s going to be a very nervous 90 minutes on Tyneside for Sky Blues’ fans if the Magpies show the same heart for a battle as they did at Stamford Bridge.

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Two goals of stunning quality from United’s new number nine, Papiss Cisse, were reminiscent of a Jackie Milburn, Malcolm Macdonald or Alan Shearer in their pomp. The second is a genuine contender for goal of the season. Newcastle still have their sights set on a top four finish and will need to gain maximum points from their last two games if they are to achieve that remarkable feat and give themselves a chance of qualifying for the Champions League for the first time in 10 years. They certainly won’t want to end their home campaign on a losing note so expect them to come out with all guns blazing against the Premier League leaders, who have had a couple of extra day’s rest but will have been mentally drained by their encounter with Manchester United and probably a little apprehensive of another tense game against a top six rival in which a lot rests.

City, however, have won their last four games and only conceded one goal in the process. It’s no coincidence that their resurgence has coincided with Carlos Tevez’ return to the fold and the little Argentinian, though still regaining fitness, will be a key player again at the Sports Direct Arena. The key battle, however, may be that between Cisse and Vincent Kompany. The City skipper has been a rock at the heart of his team’s defence this season and even popped up to score the winner against their title rivals on Monday. If he can keep Cisse fairly quiet, David Silva, Gareth Barry and Yaya Toure can control the midfield and give Tevez and Sergio Aguero enough opportunities to win the game.

From being merely hopefuls, there is now a genuine belief that Newcastle can gatecrash the top four but that brings with it new pressures and City are probably more accustomed to high expectations. The visitors can get the win they need but it may be tight and a 0-1 correct score is suggested at 6/1.

Newcastle v Man City Betting

Premier League Matches

Guineas weekend beckons! Three-year-old colts and fillies, the Classic generation, will hope to get their respective seasons off to a flyer at English flat racing H.Q, Newmarket. The boys will bid to emulate the likes of Rock Of Gibraltar, George Washington, Henrythenavigator, Sea The Stars and last year’s breath-taking victor, Frankel. The girls will hope to follow in the hoof prints of Kazzia, Russian Rhythm, Attraction and Blue Blunting. Hopefully this terrible weather eases to facilitate a wonderful weekend’s racing.

Six of the last 10 Guineas winners were trained in Ireland with four of those coming from Ballydoyle. John Oxx sent out the brilliant Sea The Stars in 2010 while Dermot Weld won this in 2003 with Refuse To Bend. It seems to be a boom or bust situation with the Irish in this, historically, saddling just three placed runners excluding their winners. All in all anything sent from the Emerald Isle should be monitored. French horses should also be respected as they have done well with what they have sent over the years – Makfi winning one of the better renewals in 2010. Aidan O’Brien is obviously a trainer to follow with what he sends from Ballydoyle, but a favourable mention must also go to Richard Hannon who has a good overall record in the race while John Oxx and Dermot Weld don’t tilt at windmills meaning their runners are worth checking over.

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This year’s race revolves around one horse, and one horse only, Camelot, according to the bookmakers. The son of the brilliant but ill-fated Montjeu has held favouritism for this race since his 2011 romp in the Racing Post Trophy. Aidan O’Brien’s mount set Town Moor alight this particular afternoon, toying with his field, going on to score in a hard-held victory. A fantastic ability to travel was accompanied by a blistering turn of foot this day and once young Joseph O’Brien let out an inch of rein the race was put to bed in a number of strides. It was a superb performance – of that there is no doubt, but at 6-4 he is not a workingman’s price especially considering there are a number of lingering doubts. The biggest stat, the one we are all aware of, is that Montjeu three-year-olds simply don’t win Group One races over a mile, period. Some pretty tough statistics back this up. Two, the ground, at writing, is currently soft at Newmarket – terrain which Camelot has never experienced before on a competitive race day. Both Aidan and Joseph O’Brien have stated that Camelot is a beautiful mover and would prefer quicker ground. So, this again must be a concern. Both these facts cannot be ignored especially given his short price. While the ground debate is not a massive worry for me – it may well help in slowing the speedier types down and allow Camelot’s stamina to tell -the Montjeu stat simply cannot be ignored and given his price we’ll be finding something to take him on with.

Take Camelot out of this race and we have quite an open 2000 Guineas. Camelot will race against a seventeen strong field one of which will be his stable companion, Power. Last season’s Coventry and National Stakes winner looks a biggish price at 12-1, all considering. The son of Oasis Dream was also an unlucky runner-up in the Dewhurst and a close second in the Phoenix Stakes. Given the prestige and class of race the Ballydoyle runner has been running in, he looks a decent price, but he may lack the class to take this on debut after his interrupted preparation. He’s a fine big son of a high class stallion and as a horse I like him, but I’d be surprised if two or three were not better.

One horse that has, reportedly, had the dream preparation is Born To Sea, the fantastically bred half-brother to Galileo and Sea The Stars. The son of Invincible Spirit is racing Royalty with his bloodline – you simply will not get better genes in the racing game. His dam, Urban Sea, was an Arc winner and has produced no less than four individual Group One winners. The family is quite remarkable and Born To Sea has a superb chance of joining some of his illustrious siblings in taking a Group One. His belated debut came quite late in his two-year-old career, at the Curragh. On his first race track appearance he managed to win a Listed Stakes race in comfortable fashion. After travelling well in the hands of Johnny Murtagh in rear the bay colt slowly crept into contention. Luck in running was needed, but when the doors opened he showed enough toe to sail through. It was a cracking performance in beating more experienced rivals, easily. He had the look of a class horse, but subsequently disappointed in his next and final start. This was not said to be his true running, however, connections sighting pulled muscles in his back for the lacklustre display. John Oxx still maintains faith in his ability although soft ground, turning the race into a slog, is a worry for the Curragh handler. His experience is also a worry, but I get the feeling from John Oxx that he is quietly confident. I’m looking forward to seeing how he runs.

Similar comments apply to Top Offer, Roger Charlton’s once-raced maiden winner. Some have crabbed his maiden form, but considering he won it in fine style, on debut, the form looks rock solid with natural progression. This natural progression must have taken place as his price continued to shorten throughout the winter and into the spring. At one stage he was clear second favourite, but is now only the fourth or fifth pick of the bookmakers. This has to be a worry and is probably because of the ground. With the ground against him and with little or no experience he is passed over, but is one to monitor later in the season.

The French took this in 2010 with Makfi and again, send a strong challenge with two interesting colts set to run. Abtaal and French Fifteen will represent their home nation and the general vibes are, there isn’t a lot between them. The pair clashed twice and the score stands at one-one, but on an aggregate of winning distance the Hamdan Al Maktoum runner just shades it. In the Prix Thomas Bryon, last season, Abtaal was a facile three length winner, off level weights, over a mile on good to soft ground. In black and white one would think Abtaal is easily capable of up-holding the form, but the fact of the matter is he had an easy, uncontested lead and was allowed to dictate his own fractions. He looked like he was in great spirits this day too, continually pricking his ears while racing. It’s also much easier make all the running around a bend, on a flat sharp track and with French Fifteen continually refusing to settle Abtaal was handed the race. The Clement trained horse was also caught napping when eventually settling as Abtaal quickened away from him, but French Fifteen showed good battling quality’s to pick-up the second horse.

Their second and final meeting came in the Prix Djebel, a Group Three. This time, French Fifteen avenged his earlier defeat. On this occasion he came out on top by a quarter-of-a-length, snuggly. This was a truly run race and over a straight track so it’s probably a better guide of their form than the first run. That being said, French Fifteen was asked to work harder to win than the fairly treated Abtaal. Abtaal also travelled the better of the two, but was mowed down close home. Connections of the Hamdan horse feel their charge will come on a tonne for the run and the way he ran, you would have to agree. There won’t be a whole lot between them on the day.

As stated earlier Richard Hannon has a cracking record in the 2000 Guineas and is mob-handed this year with four runners. Trumpet Major looks the stables first string while Bronterre, Coup De Ville and Redact all look set to take their chances. The latter two look as if they have it all to do, but the first pair have sound chances especially Trumpet Major, the Craven winner. One could not be but impressed by his Craven win where he carried a penalty and went on to score by five lengths. The overall form of that race is questionable, and him hanging to his right in the closing stages is a slight worry, but the visual impression left its mark on me.

Bronterre and Trumpet Major clashed in last season’s Dewhurst where the former came out on top by a neck when finishing fourth. Both ran eye-catching races. Bronterre was very free to post and raced alone up the middle of the track. He stuck on in the end to finish a creditable fourth – not far behind the winner, this week’s late absentee, Parish Hall. He is a keen-going sort and is far from certain to see out this trip. He may be of interest in the Jersey later in the year and it would not be a surprise to see him dropped back to sprinting. Trumpet Major was another who produced an eye-catching effort. After jumping well he got squeezed back to last place and was about seven lengths adrift. It paid to race up with the pace this day and against the near side rail. Two-and-a-half out he was last and had to be switch out to the middle of the track to make his effort – not an ideal scenario for any two-year-old. Given the circumstances he ran well.

Fencing is another to keep an eye on this season and will enjoy getting his toe in, but is maybe more of a long term project.
In summing up, it’s a tough Guineas to get to grips with. Take Camelot out and it’s wide open. That being said, the Ballydoyle runner still has plenty to prove and that Montjeu stat is, well, massively against him – he has to be taken on at the prices. Of the Hannon four Trumpet Major is certainly the one to side with. I do like him, but has he the class to win a Guineas? The three-year-old colts don’t seem anything special this year so maybe he doesn’t need to be to win this. The French pair are hard to split, but given French Fifteen is a bigger price and has a better draw, in my opinion, I’d be confident he can uphold their recent form. Born To Sea is another I like, but I must admit his breeding has influenced me here. That being said, I loved his debut effort in the circumstances and his last effort is best forgotten. At his moment in time, however, others seem that bit more solid. These sentiments are echoed about the inexperienced, Top Offer.

The two I’m struggling to spilt are Trumpet Major and French Fifteen, but I’m going to take a small leap of faith and go with the French raider. This season’s three-year-olds don’t seem to be anything special and the ones with special potential still need to prove it. The selection is two points bigger than the Hannon horse – another factor I included when splitting them. Oliver Pesiler has had plenty success on these shores before and given his experience it’s interesting they send French Fifteen here although the owners might well have had the last say. The strong pace should suit and the ground will not inconvenience him. Granted luck in running hopefully he can go close.

Advice:
1pt each-way FRENCH FIFTEEN @ 10/1

2000 Guineas Betting
1000 Guineas Betting

Football

Hidden amongst the final League One and Two fixtures and Sunday’s Premier League action is the 131st FA Cup Final, scheduled for 5.15pm this Saturday.

Chelsea face Liverpool in the Wembley showpiece and the Blues are the 7/5 favourites. There has been a marked change in fortune since the appointment of Roberto di Matteo and I fancy the former Cup Final goalscorer to lead his team to victory in this one. Liverpool’s form in 2012 has been largely woeful and they can be backed at 2/1.

Chelsea v Liverpool

The battle for the Premier League title continues this Sunday with two vital matches. Manchester City can all but seal the title with a win at Newcastle and I fancy Roberto Mancini’s side to prevail, even though they are only 4/7 to do so. Manchester United need to rattle a hatful of goals past Swansea and are 175/1 to secure the 8-0 win they need to catch up City’s goal difference.

There’s a relegation six pointer on Monday night as Blackburn host Wigan. Roberto Martinez’s team have been in sparkling form over recent weeks and can be backed at 15/8 to relegate Rovers.

Football Betting

Golf

It is 100 years since the first Reale Seguros Open de España, won by former Open Champion Arnaud Massy of France in 1912. There’s a strong Spanish contingent in the field this week including Alvaro Quiros who won the tournament when it last visited Real Club de Golf de Sevilla in 2010. Quiros can be backed at 22/1.

Francesco Molinari and Nicolas Colsaerts are the joint 16/1 favourites while I like the chances of Miguel Angel Jimenez at 22/1.

The PGA tour heads to Quail Hollow this week for the Wells Fargo Championships. Phil Mickelson has never missed the cut around this course and has six top ten finishes here. He can be backed at 10/1. Rory McIlroy is the 7/1 favourite from Tiger Woods at 8/1.

Jim Furyk is a previous winner of this tournament and the in-form 41 year old is available at 22/1.

Golf Betting

Cricket

The Clydesdale Bank 40 begins this weekend with some intriguing fixtures. There’s a repeat of last year’s final on Friday as Surrey welcome Somerset. Scotland face reigning champions Surrey on Sunday while Gloucestershire play the Netherlands.

The IPL also continues this weekend with matches at Kings XI Punjab, the Kolkata Knight Riders, the Mumbai Indians and the Royal Challengers Bangalore.

Cricket Betting

Tennis

There are three tournaments across Europe on the ATP Tour this week. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the 5/2 favourite for the BMW Open in Munich with Mikhail Youzhny and Marian Cilic also in the field. Juan Martin del Potro is the clear 8/11 favourite for the Estoril Open from Richard Gasquet and Stanislas Wawrinka while David Nalbandian is the 9/4 favourite to win the Serbia Open.

The WTA tour is also in Portugal for the Estoril Open this week. Maria Kirilenko is the 7/2 favourite from world number 18 Roberta Vinci at 9/2. Kaia Kanepi won the first WTA tournament of 2012 and is available at 5/1.

Italy’s Sara Errani is the 6/5 favourite to win the Budapest Grand Prix.

Tennis Betting

Rugby League

It’s the 13th round of fixtures in Superleague this weekend. League leaders Huddersfield face a tricky away trip at the Catalans Dragons on Saturday and could be leapfrogged by Wigan if they beat Hull KR.

Third place Warrington should win their home tie with Salford on Sunday while there’s an interesting looking Yorkshire derby on Saturday as Hull play Leeds.

Rugby League Betting

Rugby Union

It’s the last round of regular league fixtures this weekend with play-off places still up for grabs.

Northampton are the favourites to take the final play-off berth in the Aviva Premiership and can beat Worcester to secure fourth place. Exeter can still catch the Saints but they will need to win at Saracens. Leicester play Bath and league leaders Harlequins travel to Sale.
There’s also a massive match at the bottom of the table as the bottom two face each other in a relegation decider. Wasps need to avoid defeat to relegate Newcastle.

There are also play-off issues to be decided in the RaboDirect Pro12. Fifth place Scarlets can still make the play-offs but they need a good win against Cardiff Blues and to hope that fourth place Glasgow lose at home to Connacht.

Munster play Ulster and Leinster travel to the Newport Gwent Dragons.

Rugby Union Betting

Horse Racing

The highlight of Saturday’s racing comes from Newmarket with the 2,000 Guineas. Run over a mile, this is the first of Britain’s five classic races this year and Camelot is the clear 11/8 favourite. Top Offer is available at 7/1 with Born to Sea at 8/1.

The 1,000 Guineas follows on Sunday and also features a clear favourite. Maybe has been backed in to 13/8 from Discourse and Lyric of Light at 7/1.

Elsewhere, there is racing on Saturday from Doncaster, Goodwood, Hexham, Uttoxeter and Thirsk.

Racing Betting