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Betting Review
Once again, our ‘long shots’ did enough, but not quite enough, for us to profit on their success. Pablo Martin shot eleven under par at the Madrid Masters to belie the 100/1 odds but not do quite enough for us to profit. We also tipped London Irish to win in Leinster but by a greater margin that the Guinness Premiership side managed to muster.
Portugal finally discovered some World Cup form and we picked the wrong group to be voted off X-Factor. Close but no cigar, you might say…
1 pt on Wigan Athletic to beat Manchester City at 4/1
There was a feeling at the start of the season that Manchester City’s progress would be steady rather than sharp as Mark Hughes tried to combine a quarter of a billion pounds worth of new signings into a coherent, title-challenging side. However, the English Galacticos have made a great start to the campaign and continue their title challenge with a trip to the DW Stadium on Sunday to face Wigan Athletic.
With City having won away against similar quality teams such as Portsmouth and Blackburn you’d have thought this was a nailed on away victory. Their misfiring Manchester rivals put five past Wigan earlier this season but whilst you can’t rule out a City victory, the odds on Wigan to beat their North West rivals are just simply too long.
To say Wigan have blown hot and cold this season would be an understatement. Superb performances such as their 2-0 opening day win at Villa Park and their fine 3-1 home win over Chelsea have been punctuated with poor efforts at home to Wolves and away at Hull City. Still, Roberto Martinez’s side showed in the first half against Manchester United and the victory over Chelsea that they are a talented side with the capability to compete at this level.
With home advantage, the benefit of the international break and assuming the Wigan we saw against Chelsea turn up on the day, you cannot rule out a home win and at 4/1 it looks like superb value.
Premier League Betting
0.5 pt each way on Allez Wonder to win the Caulfield Cup at 12/1
One of Australia’s richest races, the Caulfield Cup is hosted by the Melbourne Racing Club for the 133rd time this Saturday. This mile and a half handicap is one of the world’s great handicap races and attracts some of the very best horses.
The best form guides for the Caulfield Cup are the Yalumba Stakes, Toorak Handicap and Herbert Power Stakes, all held a week earlier at Caulfield. These three races have produced 28 winners between them since 1950 and the winner of the Yalumba Stakes last weekend - Whobegotyou - is the clear favourite for the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley later this month.
Allez Wonder gave legendary trainer Bart Cummings his 254th Group One success and jockey Michelle Payne her first when she stormed home to claim the Toorak Handicap on Saturday. The mare was midfield for the duration before coming with a blistering late run to beat Gold Salute and Rock Kingdom. Cummings said after the race, “She’s got a big heart and deserves her place in the [Caulfield Cup] field.”
Allez Wonder is 12/1 to triumph at Caulfield and despite a 0.5kg handicap penalty following the recent win she can still bring home the Cup at a good price.
Horse Racing Betting
0.5pt each way on Andrea Dovisioso to win the Australian MotoGP at 33/1
The MotoGP season lands in Australia this weekend with three rounds remaining and the destination of the title still undecided. Jorge Lorenzo’s terrific win in Portugal last time out has closed the gap on five times champion Valentino Rossi to just eighteen points with a possible seventy five points still up for grabs.
With Casey Stoner returning from a three race absence to finish second in Estoril it promises to be a great race in Melbourne.
Whilst the focus may be on these three rivals, Andrea Dovizioso has been quietly going about his business for the Honda team this season. The Italian has been remarkably consistent in 2009 with nine top Ten finishes including six fourth places. He has proved himself to be consistently the ‘next best’ rider outside the top three and showed that he is also capable of winning a race with his triumph at Donington Park in round Ten.
With Stoner returning from injury and Rossi and Lorenzo more concerned with each other in the pursuit for the title it could be open for Dovizioso to further reinforce his position as the man most likely to break the ‘big three’ stranglehold. It will be a very tall order but with each way odds paying for a podium finish he can be backed at 33/1.
Moto GP Betting
1pt Scott Piercy to win the Justin Timberlake for Children Open at 80/1
With one of the most random names ever seen for a golf tournament, this Las Vegas based competition has also thrown up some random winners in recent years. Winners over the last few years include Phil Tataurangi, Andre Stolz, Wes Short Jr. and Marc Turnesa - men who aren’t even particularly famous in their own homes.
We went with a golfer in his home event last week and whilst Pablo Martin’s eleven under par in Madrid was good, it wasn’t good enough for us to profit. Still, we’re going to stick with our philosophy of picking a ‘native’ and so Scott Piercy is our tip to triumph at the Justin Timberlake Open in his home city of Las Vegas.
Piercy has triumphed in his back yard before, winning the 2007 Ultimate Game at the Wynn Las Vegas after shooting a five-under par back nine of 31 and overhauling a three-shot deficit to win a cool two million dollars. The Nevadan has been in the frame twice on the PGA tour this year without quite doing enough to win but at 80/1 we pick him to triumph in front of his home town fans.
Golf Betting - Justin Timberlake for Children Open Betting
Performance to date: -7 pts
