Aston Villa v Manchester United - Carling Cup Final
The first major piece of domestic silverware will be handed out this Sunday as Aston Villa take on Manchester United in the Carling Cup Final at Wembley.
After using the Carling Cup to blood youth team and fringe squad players for years, Sir Alex Ferguson has taken the League Cup more seriously in recent years. Indeed, since United went down 2-0 to Ian Dowie’s Coventry City side in September 2008, they haven’t lost a tie in the competition (other than the first leg defeat to Manchester City in this season’s semi-final). The United side has been much stronger in the Carling Cup this time around and with Ferguson resting several key players in the 3-0 win over West Ham in midweek, it’s clear he expects to put a strong team out at Wembley on Sunday.
With injuries to both Anderson and Ryan Giggs and Nani suspended, Ji-Sung Park is likely to play on the left side of midfield, with Jonny Evans and Wes Brown competing to partner Nemanja Vidic in defence in the absence of Rio Ferdinand.
Villa have beaten three Premier League clubs on the way to their first major showpiece event since the FA Cup final in 2000. As well as Cardiff City, Sunderland, Portsmouth and Blackburn Rovers have all been eliminated by Martin O’Neill’s side who are looking to regain the Cup they last won in 1996.
Villa are unbeaten in 2010 and came close to defeating Manchester United just a fortnight ago. With a much greater strength in depth than in previous campaigns, O’Neill has been able to bring in quality replacements where necessary and in Agbonlahor, Carew and Heskey, Villa have three talented frontmen. With promising English talent including Stewart Downing, James Milner, Fabian Delph and Ashley Young, the future looks bright for Villa and these prodigious talents can cause United some problems on Sunday.
This match reminds me very much of the two sides’ Wembley meeting in 1994 when Ron Atkinson’s promising Villa side met Ferguson’s dominant United. Villa won 3-1 that day, denying United a domestic treble, and it is 45/1 that Villa repeat the scoreline from that day.
Cup Finals tend to be cagey affairs, and there have only been more than three goals in the League Cup final twice in the last fifteen years. However, with two attacking sides I think it could be different this time and I like the ‘evens’ on there being more than 2.5 goals in this match. I can’t see it being a 0-0 borefest like the 2009 Final, and with both teams featuring stronger attacking line-ups (United are likely to pair Rooney and Berbatov this time compared to Welbeck and Tevez in 2009) there could well be goals.
I also like the ‘evens’ on the match being a draw at half time. United tend to up their game in the second half of matches and the game between the two sides a fortnight ago was also even (1-1) at the half time interval.
Chasing the game in the second half might also give Michael Owen another opportunity to come off the bench to nick a goal for United, just as he did in midweek against the Hammers. It is 6/1 that Owen is the ‘last goalscorer’ in the match, and whilst the diminutive striker admitted this week that he doesn’t expect to be part of Fabio Capello’s World Cup plans, another goal on a big stage could yet sway the Italian. Bear in mind, though, that the ‘last goalscorer’ market is based on 90 minutes. If, as last year, the game goes to extra time, any Owen goal won’t count for profit purposes.
Verdict
Much will depend on the XI that Sir Alex Ferguson selects on Sunday. If he picks his strongest side, it will be tough to look past a United win (it is 2/1 that United win the match to nil). However, if he does make one or two changes, and Villa are on the top of their game, there could be plenty of goalmouth action and the 7/2 on Martin O’Neill’s side might look very skinny at 5pm on Sunday afternoon.
