European Football
Champions League Betting
The Champions League has reached the knockout stages, and, with the notable absences of Juventus and Liverpool (and possibly Atletico Madrid) it’s pretty much as expected. The draw is dominated once again by the major European leagues with three representatives from England, Spain and Italy, two from Germany and France and one each from Russia, Greece and Portugal.
Reigning champions Barcelona are the 3/1 favourites and have been drawn against struggling Stuttgart. The German side sit 15th at the half way stage of the Bundesliga season and recently parted company with manager Markus Babbel, installing former Tottenham manager Christian Gross as their new head coach.
Barcelona, meanwhile, have started the 2009/10 season where they left off – top of La Liga and with the World Club Championship completing an unprecedented clean sweep of trophies. Unbeaten in the league, the only blot on the Barca copybook was their unexpected 2-1 home defeat to Russian champions Rubin Kazan in the group stages. Pep Guardiola has done a fantastic job at Barcelona and at 3/1 they are the team to beat.
So, where is the challenge to the Catalan giants likely to come from?
Surprisingly, considering their recent Champions League form, the main challengers to Barca could well be their fierce La Liga rivals. Real Madrid’s £250million spending spree helped stock their training ground with world class talent but they have played well this season and look as if they might finally challenge Barca both domestically and in Europe.
The Galacticos are 9/2 third favourites. They face Lyon in the first knockout round who, whilst perennial Champions League stalwarts, aren’t the same talented side of three or four seasons ago. I expect Manual Pelligrini’s side to overcome the French runners-up after which they should be good enough to challenge any of the remaining sides. They also have the advantage of a ‘home’ tie should they reach the final in May.
Of the British challengers, Chelsea look the best equipped to finally capture the Champions League trophy after their narrow failures in recent seasons. An injury time goal in last year’s semi-final and a John Terry penalty miss have cost the London side the chance of the trophy in the last two years and under the experienced guidance of Carlo Ancelotti this could finally be their year. They face Inter in the last sixteen and whilst Jose Mourinho would love to get one over on his old team, I don’t think the Italian champions will be good enough.
Chelsea are 9/2 to lift the trophy in Madrid.
Manchester United are 8/1 to regain the trophy they won in 2008 and Alex Ferguson’s side are looking to reach an unprecedented third consecutive final. They face a tricky looking tie against AC Milan in the last sixteen and with question marks over their defence and a weak-looking strike force it would arguably be Ferguson’s greatest achievement if they were to reach the Madrid showpiece.
Arsenal are 7/1 to triumph in May and Arsene Wenger’s side could well be dark horses. Their injury to leading striker Robin van Persie is a blow, but Arsenal look better equipped this season than in previous years to make an impact. They should be too good for Porto in the last sixteen after which a mouth watering clash against one of Europe’s leading sides beckons.
A good each way bet for the trophy are Bordeaux at 22/1. Laurent Blanc has performed miracles at the French champions, guiding them to the Ligue 1 title and then successfully negotiating a Champions League group including both Juventus and Bayern Munich. Bordeaux remained unbeaten to win Group 1 conceding just two goals and they face Olympiakos in the knockout stages. I expect Blanc’s side to beat the Greeks and with terrific home form they could well be a match for anyone.
In the remaining fixtures, an improving Bayern Munich side face Fiorentina. Louis van Gaal has guided Bayern into third place in the Bundesliga despite some criticism of his teams style and performances although they confirmed their qualification with a 4-1 rout of Juventus in Turin. It might be the year that Bayern finally rejoin Europe’s elite and at 14/1 they are not bad each way value.
CSKA Moscow qualified at the expense of German champions Wolfsburg and face Sevilla in the final clash. I like Sevilla – they play some entertaining, attacking football and in Luis Fabiano they have one of Europe’s most sought after strikers. They can be vulnerable defensively but no team will relish the prospect of travelling to the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, that’s for sure. Sevilla are 14/1 to win the Champions League on home soil in May.
