European Football
Now that the Champions League failures have been parachuted into the Europa League knockouts the dust is settling on one of the largest and most complicated club football tournaments in the world.
We’re down to the last 32 in the Europa League and it is the Champions League third place teams that dominate the outright betting. Liverpool, Juventus, Marseille and Atletico Madrid have joined the competition at this stage and if you add the likes of Valencia, Roma, Benfica and three strong Bundesliga sides to the mix, the Europe League boasts a very strong field.
Liverpool have had a disappointing season so far and Rafa Benitez will be looking to rescue something from this campaign with a good run in the Europa League. Liverpool have excellent European pedigree and with an easy looking couple of ties against Unirea Urziceni and then either Lille or Fenerbahce the 6/1 against them looks good value.
The European heavyweights of Valencia, Juventus and Roma are also strong contenders for the 2010 Europa League. Valencia’s likely success in the competition will depend on whether they can hang on to their star players in the light of their mounting debt problems and so until those issues are resolved I’d prefer to swerve them. They also face a potentially tricky last sixteen clash against either FC Twente or Werder Bremen.
Juventus have slipped nine points behind Inter in the Serie A title race after an indifferent run of form and face fellow European giants Ajax in the tie of the round. Martin Jol has much work to do at Ajax after several years of mismanagement and may well lose Uruguayan playmaker Luis Suarez in the transfer window. Juve should overcome the Dutch former winners and with a last sixteen match against Fulham or Shakhtar Donetsk Ciro Ferrara’s team will hope to reach at least the quarter finals. Juventus are a good value 11/1 to lift the Europa League in Hamburg in May.
Of the remaining competitors, where does the value lie?
I like the chances of Russian champions Rubin Kazan at 20/1. Having beaten Barcelona in one of the Champions League’s most unexpected results for some years, they were unlucky to face both the Spanish giants and Inter in Group F. Whilst they might not be the most recognisable name in Russian football, Rubin retained the Russian league title in 2010 and so are the best team in UEFA’s sixth strongest league.
Teams from Eastern Europe also have an excellent recent record in this competition with CSKA Moscow, Zenit St Petersburg and Shakhtar Donetsk all winning the UEFA Cup/Europa League since 2005. Rubin face Hapoel Tel-Aviv before a tie against either Villareal or Wolfsburg and so I fancy them to continue the Russian success story in this tournament.
The Europa League and UEFA Cup has also been kind to Spanish teams over recent seasons with Valencia, Sevilla and Espanyol all reaching the final since 2004. I’ve already considered Valencia’s chances above, but Spain are also represented in the knockout stages by Atletico Madrid, Villareal and Athletic Bilbao.
Bilbao look a terrific price at 50/1. Joaquin Caparros’ team sit a comfortable eighth in La Liga and with winnable ties against Anderlecht and then PSV or Hamburg to come, the Basque side could well be dark horses. No-one will relish a trip to the San Mames and the Lions will be looking to go one better than their 1977 UEFA Cup final defeat to Juventus.
Villareal have a more tricky draw with German champions Wolfsburg in the last 32 and the Yellow Submarines’ form has been inconsistent this season. Atletico Madrid sit just four points off the relegation zone in La Liga after a dreadful opening half of the season and could lose Argentinean prodigy Sergio Aguero in the transfer window. However, their form will clearly improve in the second half of the season and with ties against 2000 winners Galatasaray and then Everton or Sporting Lisbon they can’t be discounted at 20/1.
Of the remaining English sides, both Fulham and Everton face difficult ties. Roy Hodgson has done a fantastic job in steering Fulham to the knockout stages but a tie against reigning Europa League holders Shakhtar Donetsk looks a tall order. After being humbled by Portuguese opposition already this season Everton face Sporting Lisbon before a potential tie with either Atletico Madrid or Galatasaray and so even at 22/1, I can’t make much of a case for David Moyes’ men.
