Football Betting
Welcome to our weekly column where we try and seek good value in some longer odds bets.
Review
A 5.5 point profit on our La Liga patent last week - if only Deportivo had managed to nick a home goal… Our long shot of West Brom winning at Liverpool never quite looked like coming off, whereas after losing two weeks in a row on a Newcastle result, I’ll probably steer clear of them for a while.
Let’s see what this week brings.
Walcott under pressure to continue his bright start to the season.
Top Tip - 3pts Lithuania to beat Scotland at 13/8
Scotland begin their attempt to reach a major international tournament for the first time in 1998 this Friday, although Craig Levein’s side face a tricky opening fixture in Lithuania.
Whilst they will find qualification tough, they could really do with getting off to a flying start in Kaunas. Levein has the luxury of the strongest Scotland squad in some time, with Blackpool’s in-form Charlie Adam likely to feature alongside the Wolves pair of Steven Fletcher and Christophe Berra. Graham Dorrans and Darren Fletcher provide a good combination in midfield, whilst Levein is blessed with a range of attacking options including Kenny Miller, Kris Boyd, James McFadden and Garry O’Connor.
Whilst Lithuania don’t boast many household names, they do have an experienced, talented squad. They beat both Bulgaria and Austria in World Cup qualifying, so Raimondas Žutautas’ team are not to be underestimated. Record goalscorer Tomas Danilevičius plies his trade for Livorno, whilst experienced defender Marius Stankevičius plays for Sampdoria in Serie A.
Whilst it is the sort of match Scotland need to win if they are going to qualify for their first European Championships in 16 years, I think the home side could prevail in this one. Lithuania beat Scotland in the corresponding fixture during Euro 2004 qualifying, and at 13/8 they are good value to do so again.
Euro 2012 patent - 0.5 pts Croatia (8/13), Norway (5/6), Slovenia (4/6)
The first round of Euro 2012 qualifying matches has actually thrown up a large number of potentially one-sided encounters. World Cup finalists Spain and Netherlands face Liechtenstein and San Marino respectively, whilst Russia play Andorra and Portugal play Cyprus. Finding value is therefore a little tricky….
Croatia have been regular participants at international tournaments of late and can get their campaign off to a winning start in Latvia. Whilst the Latvians can be competitive on their day, I fancy Croatia to qualify for Euro 2012 from a group where their main rivals are Greece, Israel and Georgia.
Norway are, based on the size of their country and number of professional players, the most successful international football team in the world. Whilst they haven’t reached a major international finals in a decade, they should be too good for Iceland in Reykjavik. Goals may be a problem for the Norwegians (33 year old Steffan Iversen is still getting an international game) but at 5/6 they can get their Group H campaign up and running with a win.
I tipped Slovenia to be a surprise World Cup quarter finalist this summer, and only a late USA goal prevented the nation reaching the knockout stages. For a tiny country, reaching two World Cups and a European Championship is a major achievement, and they can continue their good form with a win over Northern Ireland on Friday.
Whilst Northern Ireland have been improving over recent years, they lost this fixture 2-0 in 2010 World Cup qualifying, and I can’t see Nigel Worthington’s side improving on that result.
Slovenia v N Ireland Betting
Football Long Shot - 1pt Theo Walcott to score the first goal and England to beat Bulgaria 2-0 at 25/1
Harshly discarded from England’s 23 man squad for the 2010 World Cup, Theo Walcott was a man with a point to prove. And, over the first few weeks of the new Premier League season, prove it he has. Walcott has been in scintillating form for Arsenal and has forced his way back into Fabio Capello’s England side.
And now, with the Three Lions’ Euro 2010 campaign getting under way, Walcott looks to be a vital part of the side.
England should beat a Bulgaria side missing their inspirational striker Dimitar Berbatov, and anything other than a win will heap huge pressure on coach Fabio Capello. With talismanic striker Wayne Rooney still short of fitness and form, it may be the in-form Walcott that can spark England to life at Wembley. Back the youngster to net his fifth goal in three matches and for England to run out comfortable 2-0 winners.
Performance to date: -33.75 points
