World Cup Betting
World Cup Top Goalscorer Betting
Spain are likely arrive in South Africa as tournament favourites. They also have one of the most celebrated frontlines in world football, and two of their three star strikers feature prominently in the World Cup Top Goalscorer betting.
David Villa won the Golden Boots at Euro 2008 as his four goals helped Spain lift the trophy. Villa is 9/1 favourite to take the World Cup Golden Shoe in 2010. Fernando Torres has cemented his place as one of the planet’s leading strikers over recent seasons and is 11/1 to top score in South Africa.
So, why then won’t either of them pick up this award?
The Draw
In each of the last eleven World Cup Finals, the top goalscorer has come from a team that has reached at least the semi-finals. The exceptions are Oleg Salenko, who hit five in one match in 1994, and England’s own Gary Lineker, who scored six goals on the way to England’s quarter final elimination in 1986.
Spain should have no problems in escaping from Group H, but they will then face a tricky last sixteen tie against Portugal, the Ivory Coast or even Brazil. I actually think Vicente del Bosque’s side could come a cropper at this stage but even if they do go through they are likely to play Italy in the quarter finals. I just don’t think Spain will get far enough in the tournament for either Villa or Torres to score enough goals.
The Rivals
The World Cup brings together the world’s best hitmen and there are many great players who will have their sights on the Golden Shoe award.
My favourite is German striker Miroslav Klose. With five goals in both 2002 and 2006, Klose is a proven performer on the big stage. Germany should progress well in South Africa and at 25/1 he is a big price to repeat his recent World Cup exploits.
Brazil are a good tip to go all the way in the tournament and with a settled number 9 in the shape of Luis Fabiano, he could also become the sixth Brazilian in history to top score in a World Cup. Italy’s Alberto Gilardino is also good value at 33/1 considering he’ll have plenty of chances against New Zealand, Slovakia and Paraguay in Group F.
Add to that the likes of Wayne Rooney, Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi and you can’t say with any degree of certainty that the Spanish duo will outscore any of these other great players.
The Pressure
Only once has a European Champion ever won the World Cup two years later. In recent years, the quarter-final has been the best performance by a Euro winner. Spain have been in this position before; arriving at a World Cup with great expectations only to be eliminated early. Whilst Villa and Torres both have big game experience, I don’t think Spain can replicate their consistency and resolve that they showed in Austria and Switzerland in South Africa.
The weight of expectation has been Spain’s Achilles heel before – arriving as favourites adds a whole new level of pressure I am just not sure they can deal with.
The Injuries/The Formations
Fernando Torres has started just 15 matches for Liverpool this season and, amazingly, made only one appearance for the national side. Injuries have plagued the Liverpool striker over recent months and even if he is recovered by the time the World Cup come around (and it is a big ‘if’) he won’t have played many matches.
David Villa’s thigh injury kept him out of the Euro 2008 final. Interestingly, the promotion of Arsenal captain Cesc Fabregas to the starting line up gave Spain a better balance and employing a 4-5-1 formation with Torres as a lone frontman actually helped the eventual champions. Spain have used both 4-4-2 and 4-5-1 since, and so if del Bosque decides to strengthen his midfield in South Africa it is quite possible that either Torres or Villa won’t start all the matches. Without being on the pitch, it’s hard to see how they will score the goals needed to win the Golden Shoe.
Verdict
If Spain do manage to repeat their Euro 2008 triumph and win the World Cup, you can be sure that it will be the likes of Villa and Torres that will have fired them there. However, for all the reasons above I think there are better teams as well as strikers with better chances to take the prestigious Top Goalscorer award than the Spanish pair.
