World Cup Betting
World Cup Betting
There have been seven all-European World Cup Finals since the inception of the competition in 1930. With seven of the in leading contenders in South Africa from the continent there is a good chance of there being an all-European final in Johannesburg on 11th July. It is 4/11 that the winner comes from UEFA.
Spain are the tournament favourites and 2/1 to reach the World Cup Final. The draw was kind to the European Champions as, unless they or Brazil fail to win their group, they can’t meet until the final itself. Group H also looks the most straightforward of the pools with Spain facing Switzerland, Chile and Honduras.
However, as I have said before I just don’t think Spain will win in South Africa. Only one European Champion has ever gone on to win the World Cup two years later - West Germany in 1972 and 1974 - and in the last six World Cups the reigning European champion has reached no further than the quarter finals. Spain have also arrived at World Cups with talented squads in the past before underperforming when it matters, failing to beat the likes of Nigeria, Belgium and South Korea in recent tournaments.
With a potential last sixteen clash against the Ivory Coast or Portugal, I’d look elsewhere for value.
The European team with the best chance of reaching the final is Germany and they are available at 11/2. After a winnable group and a likely last sixteen match against the USA the 1990 champions are likely to meet hosts South Africa, Mexico or Argentina in the quarter finals. I don’t see anything to be frightened of there, and so a semi-final against the likes of Spain or Italy will be their main challenge. I think they have enough experience, flair and goals to go far in South Africa and the 11/2 on them reaching the final is good value.
Many believe the time is right for England to finally reach the latter stages of a World Cup, and a favourable draw will help. France or Argentina look to be the strongest potential quarter final opponents although, if all goes as predicted, Brazil await in the semi-finals. Watching England played off the park in their recent friendly with the five times champions gave me little confidence that the Three Lions would be able to overcome Brazil in South Africa. Fabio Capello’s side’s best hope is that Brazil start slowly and fail to win Group G and then an open half of the draw may see them face the likes of Portugal or Holland in the semis. They are 11/4 to reach the final.
Italy are another dark horse for the 2010 World Cup. Marcello Lippi’s side have a good chance to play themselves into some form with group matches against Slovakia, Paraguay and New Zealand although they may face Spain in the quarter-finals. With the quality in their squad I really don’t think the Azzuri should be wary of their rivals and I actually think they are a good bet at 5/1 to reach the final in July.
If you then consider the potential of Holland, Portugal, France, Denmark and even outsiders like Serbia and Slovenia, there is a good case to be made for all all European final on 11th July. Germany v Spain at 22/1 or England v Spain at 14/1 represent the most likely all-UEFA final and it is 28/1 that we will see a repeat of the 1966 final with England taking on Germany.
Brazil are likely to be the team that has most to say about that, however, and are 5/2 to reach the final and prevent an all European affair.
