World Cup Betting - To Reach the Semi Finals
Reaching the World Cup Final has been the reserve of just eleven teams. Just seven previous winners (who all feature in South Africa), Sweden, Czechoslovakia, Holland and Hungary have ever reached the biggest match in world football.
Whilst picking the potential World Cup Finalists therefore generally involves looking no further than previous winners, picking teams to reach the semi-finals opens up many more possibilities.
In the last seven World Cup Finals, semi-final losers have come from far and wide. Belgium, Poland, South Korea, Croatia, Bulgaria, Sweden, Croatia, Turkey and Portugal have all reached the semi-finals before being eliminated by either a previous or future World Cup winner.
In fact, only in 1970 and 1990 have four previous World Cup winners contested the semi-finals. So, in 2010 it’s a case of looking at the draw, and at form, and working out which surprise contender can emerge.
For many, Spain are the team most likely. Other than a fourth place finish in 1950 Spain have underperformed at World Cups but they are 5/4 to reach the semi-finals in South Africa. To do that, they would need to win their group and hope Brazil win theirs otherwise the two teams would meet in Johannesburg or Cape Town in the last sixteen.
Spain’s first knockout match is also likely to be a tricky affair with Vincente del Bosque’s side likely to face either Portugal or the Ivory Coast on 29th June. They would then face another tough game against probably Italy, Denmark or Cameroon and so with ties as tough as that I’d rather look elsewhere for value.
England’s likely opponents in the semi-finals are Brazil. Whilst the 11/4 about the Three Lions reaching the final may therefore not appeal, the 5/4 on them reaching the semi-finals is a lot more tempting. To get there Fabio Capello’s men would have to beat the USA, Slovenia and Algeria in Group C, probably Serbia or Ghana in the last sixteen and France, Nigeria or Greece in the quarter finals. Even if England were to face the likes of Argentina or Mexico in the quarters, I still think they are good enough to prevail.
Emulating their 1990 semi-final appearance at 5/4 is therefore by no means beyond England.
I also like the chances of Germany at 11/2. Joachim Low’s side looked excellent in qualifying and I strongly fancy them to top Group D ahead of Australia, Serbia and Ghana. They then play the runners-up in England’s group before a likely meeting with an erratic Argentina side in the quarter finals. There don’t look to be too many obstacles in a run to the semi-finals there, and with Miroslav Klose excellent value at 25/1 to be tournament top scorer there could be some profit to make on the Germans.
The Outsiders
If you are looking for a long shot to defy all expectations then it could be worth looking no further than the host nation South Africa. Despite their lowly FIFA ranking, the Bafana Bafana performed admirably in 2009’s Confederations Cup, only losing to Brazil and Spain after very late goals. It is worth also reiterating the fact that no host nation has ever failed to get past the first round at a World Cup.
If they finish second behind France in Group A they would be scheduled to play Argentina in the last sixteen, but under Diego Maradona it’s by no means certain that the 1978 and 1986 winners will top Group B. They may therefore face the likes of South Korea or Greece in the first knockout round and in front of their home fans they could easily build momentum that would carry them further into the tournament. If you consider how South Korea performed as massive outsiders in 2002, at 40/1 to reach the semi-finals it may be worth a small interest in the host nation.
I also like the possibility of England’s Group C rivals Slovenia. Having eliminated Russia in the European play-offs I fancy Matjaž Kek’s side to overcome the USA and Algeria to finish second in Group C where they’d face Germany, Australia, Serbia or Ghana in the last sixteen. It’s a tall order but Slovenia are a talented, solid side and with some luck could overcome one of those sides to face Argentina, South Africa, Mexico or Uruguay in the quarter-finals. At 66/1 they may well be the surprise package of the 2010 World Cup.
