Cheltenham Betting
Royal and Sun Alliance Chase - Cheltenham Day Two
The Royal and Sun Alliance Chase is one of Wednesday’s big novice races. It’s quite a test for a novice as nineteen fences have to be jumped over the three mile trip. Good jumping is essential as there is nowhere to hide from the usual frenetic gallop. It’s a race in which the U.K trainers do well in, winning eight of the last ten runnings. The two Irish winners were both trained by Willie Mullins, Rule Supreme in 2004 and Cooldine in 2009. Other notable winners of the race include Florida Pearl and Albertas Run but the biggest winner has to be Denman, who took the prize in 2007. Nicky Henderson won the 2005 event with Trabolgan and is odds on to win the 2010 renewal. He has three horses entered including the first two in the market, Punchestowns and Long Run.
At the head of the market for the RSA Chase is Nicky Henderson’s Punchestowns. Last years World Hurdle second was a really classy hurdler, obtaining a mark of 173 when running Big Buck’s to a length and three quarters. Chasing looks to be his game though, as the big strapping son of Morespeed has really taken to fences. On his debut at Newbury, he put in a faultless round of jumping to beat a poor field by seven lengths, hard held. He didn’t beat much but he jumped quickly and with plenty of fluency. It actually surprised me how quick he jumped for a novice! His second run was at Sandown in the Challengers Novice Chase. Anyone in racing knows that the railway fences test even the best and most experienced jumpers and are quite a test for novices. Again, Punchestowns jumped beautifully but for one shuddering mistake at the seventh. It was a miracle Barry Geraghty stayed in the plate and even more of a miracle that Punchestowns went on to win with such ease, showing all his class. He steps up in trip for the RSA but that won’t be a concern, if anything it could help his already accurate jumping. A huge chance.
Second favourite at 5-1 is Nicky Henderson’s, Long Run. Robert Waley-Cohen bought the son of Cadoudal from France, where he has won grade one races over hurdles and fences. He’s only a five year old but is quite a big stamp of a horse with plenty maturing to do. He’s very raw but has a big engine; I really think you’ll see the very best of him in another year or two. Long Run has had plenty of experience in France but he is still very novicey at his fences. In both races he won this year, mistakes have been plentiful. On the other hand he has still won them quite easily, beating some decent horses. He obviously has plenty of gears and quite a bit of class but his jumping is a major worry. There’ll be no room for error in a high class field come the festival. If he jumps well, he could take some catching up the hill. No real value at 5-1.
Third favourite at 15-2 is Nick Williams’ stable star, Diamond Harry. He was a high class hurdler with a rating of 165 and was third in last years Ballymore Novice Hurdle. He seems to have taken to fences fine but there is no doubt in my mind that his best performance this year was over hurdles. He gave the classy Burton Point fourteen pounds when he beat Nicky Henderson’s horse very easily in the Betfair Racing Club Hurdle. If he can translate that form to fences he should run a big race. He jumps ok for a novice; he tends to take his time but is safe. He’ll have to jump as quickly as Punchestowns to trouble him though, as he is comfortably held on hurdles form. A classy horse but not for me.
The rest of the field is lead by Weapons Amnesty. Charles Byrnes’ seven year old son of Presenting won at the festival last year. He beat the classy Pride of Dulcotte by half a length as he stormed up the Cheltenham hill. He has taken his time to come to hand over fences but has been running well in less then ideal conditions. A stern test of stamina on good ground should see him in better light. He’s one that will certainly come up the hill.
Next in line is one of the least exposed horses in the line-up, Weird Al. Ian Williams’ charge has only raced five times in his short career, going unbeaten over fences in the process. Strictly on the formbook, he has a bit to find but I think he will improve again. He seems to have won all his races with something in hand and the form isn’t bad. Furthermore, he has won twice round Cheltenham and being a son of Accordion, the forecast good/soft ground will only aid the seven year olds chances.
To conclude, this years RSA is a fascinating race. It really is a mouth watering contest with many horses in with a chance. You could make a genuine case for six or seven of the field and give a squeak to another three or four. I can’t wait for 14:40 come the 17th of March.
The first one I’m going to rule out is Long Run. Nicky Henderson’s five year old is very young and doesn’t jump well enough for me. There’s also going to be plenty of pressure on his young jockey, Sam Waley-Cohen. Factor all this into his short price, he’s not for me. One for the future though.
I don’t think this will be Diamond Harry’s year either. On the formbook, he has a bit of ground to make up with Punchestowns and doesn’t jump nearly as well. No value at 15-2.
For me the winner is Punchestowns. He was high class over hurdles and has translated his form to the larger obstacles. I don’t usually go for favourites but he has really impressed me this year. Jumping slickly and winning cosily on each start, he has a huge chance. Nicky Henderson stated this week that Punchestowns and Long Run are the two best chasers he has ever trained, quite a statement considering the horses he has had over the years. So it’s Punchestowns for me.
An each-way bet is Weird Al.
