Cheltenham Betting
The Queen Mother Champion Chase is one of the finest and most prestigious races to be staged during the Cheltenham Festival. Two mile steeple-chasing on the Cotswold’s undulations is a real test of the equine – twelve fences must be jumped with precision at a scorching gallop meaning there is no room for error.
He was a little before my time, but the great Badsworth Boy is the only horse to win the Queen Mother three times. Master Minded was cruelly denied this feat in 2010, by the Gods, when Cheltenham’s racing turf was deemed too quick for the dual winner and he finished out of the frame. Quick is certainly an appropriate adjective to use with other past winners – racing greats like Flyingbolt, Viking Flagship, One Man and Moscow Flyer are all household names in the National Hunt circuit. A special mention must also go to an old favourite of mine, Well Chief, who never won this race, but was strongly part of a golden era for two mile chasers. Sadly he never fulfilled his potential due to an injury which first plagued him at six.
In terms of age, there seems to be no boundary in finding the winner. Over the past decade, winners have varied from five to eleven. Age should not be a barrier to finding the winner and in general class really tells.
Like this year’s World Hurdle, the Queen Mother doesn’t look the most appetizing race from an ante-post perspective. Those to the fore in the market seem to be priced up accordingly and if anything, probably a touch on the short side.
Sizing Europe - currently 2/1 for back to back Queen Mother victories!
A horse who’s quite short, but is a deserving favourite is the Irish trained Sizing Europe. Henry De Bromhead’s charge has been a model of consistency throughout his career and really is a credit to connections. Thirteen career wins for the son of Pistolet Bleu, five at the highest level, go some way to showing you his class. These wins have been gained from sixteen to twenty furlongs, going left-handed, right-handed and on a whole host of varying grounds – he’s a top class horse. The funny thing though, he may have been even better. A persistent itch for connections to turn him in to a Gold Cup horse, means his legacy has suffered. In the two mile division he’s as good as we’ve seen since Moscow Flyer. His class, versatility, slick safe jumping along with his pace makes him the perfect mould for a two mile chaser. The fact that he is very much a spring horse also bodes well for a repeat success for the 2011 winner. Spring ground around Prestbury Park will improve him further on what he’s done this year. After a slow start on unfavorable soft ground at Gowran Park, he somewhat bounced back when finishing a gutsy second to the decent Quito De La Roque over a taxing three miles. The drop back to the minimum trip saw him return to winning ways as he dismantled what could only be described as an average two mile field. However, he’s done it very easily and with the spring nearing he can only improve. The massively underrated Andrew Lynch will take the ride providing he’s fit and available and this is another big plus. Sizing is the one to beat, but offers no value in terms of an ante-post bet.
Ireland has a very strong hand in this year’s Champion Chase. Along with Sizing Europe, Big Zeb is another to take heed of. The 2010 Queen Mother winner had to settle for second best last year behind his Irish counterpart, Sizing Europe. Colm Murphy’s stable star still ran a cracker, but just couldn’t live with Sizing Europe up the hill. Retribution quickly followed though when the pair clashed at the Punchestown Festival. A six-length deficit was turned into a three-quarter-of-a-length beating as he notched up another top flight win. He’s another horse that Ireland must be proud of. Six wins in Grade One company, all over fences, mean this is a horse to strongly consider. This so, even at the age of eleven. The son of Oscar is entering the veteran stage in his career, but his form this season has been of a high standard. Twice he has beaten last year’s Cheltenham Jewson Novice’s Chase winner, Noble Prince, in good style. Connections report him to still be in love with his racing and ‘as good as ever’. The horse who once had jumping difficulties is now a more accomplished leaper although he can throw in the odd howler. This is still a slight worry for me, but his class and neat turn of foot should still see him into a place at minimum. His advancing years are a slight concern and getting up that hill may prove a little bit tougher at eleven. He has a huge chance, but I’d fancy Sizing Europe to confirm last year’s Queen Mother placings.
The young pretenders will have to improve massively to trouble the aforementioned pair, but it’s not beyond the realms of possibility. Heading the line is Finian’s Rainbow and Wishful Thinking – both runners-up in their respective races at last year’s festival. The two are also nine-year-olds which is quite deep-rooted for second season chasers. The pair are both lightly raced, however, so they should still be improving.
The Nicky Henderson trained runner is half the price of Wishful Thinking so we’ll start with him. The nine-year-old son of Tiraaz was a gallant second in last season’s Arkle Chase behind the classy Captain Chris. Previous prominent Arkle runners have a terrific record in the Queen Mother when taking in this race the following year. The big question is can he step up to the likes of Sizing Europe and Big Zeb? This horse has plenty of the attributes needed to go very close – he jumps well, stays strongly, has a touch of class, handles the course, but does he possess the raw ability of the big two in the market? These are all serious questions which may not be answered till March. His comeback run in the Desert Orchid Chase was nothing short of remarkable. After jumping soundly throughout he made a bone crunching blunder four-out and upon touching down, stumbled on landing, too. He then had four lengths to make-up on the leaders between the last two, but a good jump at the last saw him get back in contention. Then, he showed a very smart turn of foot to sail by Wishful Thinking to score snuggly. Among other things he is obviously quite tough. Another variable that will boost his followers confidence is that of where he is housed, Seven Barrows. Nicky Henderson is a trainer I have huge admiration for - there aren’t many better than him and he has a superb record at Cheltenham. If he can improve this lightly-raced type further, of which there is a distinct possibility, Finian’s Rainbow should be able to challenge the ‘big two’.
Wishful Thinking is another who will need to improve to challenge the pair at the head of the market. Philip Hobbs’ inmate is becoming a bit of an enigma for me now. He finished last season’s top novice on official ratings after three super displays at the big national hunt racing festivals. A second at Cheltenham was followed by two outstanding wins at Aintree and Punchestown. This year, however has been abysmal by his 2011 form. He was well beaten in the Paddy Power, hammered in the Tingle Creek, but then returned to form when running Finian’s Rainbow close at Kempton. In a bizarre race, he made a serious mistake at the same fence as the Henderson horse – heavily breasting it in ploy like fashion. He somehow recovered, like the winner, to run a big race, but was just touched off close to home. It was very much a step in the right direction and if he can rediscover the Wishful Thinking of last year, a tough, consistent, exuberant jumper, he can be in the shake-up. His seasonal form is off putting, though and I’d strongly fancy Finian’s to uphold the Kempton run come Cheltenham. He was the value in the race at 20-1 before Pricewise put him up and if he had stayed that price, I would have certainly plumped for son of Alflora. The value has now evaporated for me.
Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross are both entered here as well as the Arkle. Given their novice status I’ll be putting a line straight them through them as ante-post options. Even if they were to run I’d still fancy Sizing Europe to show them who’s boss.
Of the rest I really can’t see a whole pile getting into it. Two at the prices I think could run big races are Ghizao at 33-1 and Forpaddydeplasterer at 40-1. Both have multiple engagements at the festival which doesn’t really entice one to put up an ante-post bet. Of the two I really like Ghizao. This is a horse that simply has not fulfilled his potential yet. One thing that has let him down time and again is his jumping. If Paul Nicholls ironed out these problems and sent him here I’d certainly be in at the price. It’s far too big for what he’s achieved on the track. People forget he destroyed Captain Chris twice last season before disappointing in the Arkle. Both came on softish ground which may well be the key to him. After his customary blunder at Aintree, Finain’s Rainbow still had to fight like a dog to see Ghizao off. Two lengths separated the pair at the line, but yet, the Nicholls horse is six times the price. The Manor Farm trainer has suggested he may run in a handicap, but if rerouted to here he would be of massive interest at that price.
In summing up I’m really struggling to find anything of worth. Ghizao is the undoubted value for me, but is far from certain to run here. I really like Sizing Europe and they all have to beat him. Big Zeb is his biggest danger currently, and may just offer a touch of value at the prices. Finian’s Rainbow may prevail as the biggest danger to Sizing’s crown, but in comparisons to Big Zeb, in terms of price, he offers no value for a horse that still has to prove his worth. On last year’s form Wishful Thinking is a big price, but he has struggled this year with his form and also, reportedly, with his breathing. He may well improve as the season goes on, but presently is a risky proposition. The rest have a long way to go, but I advise a watching brief on Ghizao at his prize.
Weighing-up the race I’ve come to an obvious conclusion in terms of my pick, Big Zeb. At the prices he’s the only one who will run (hopefully – just one entry), that offers a touch of value. He’s a previous winner of this race and at the age of eleven shows no signs of spiraling on a downward curve. He may well go off shorter on the day and for me is a solid each-way bet to nothing – I can’t see him out of the first three. In a very tough ante-post race to assess Big Zeb gets the each-way call.
Advice:
2.5pts each-way Big Zeb @ 9-2
