Cheltenham Betting
Cheltenham World Hurdle Preview
For my World Hurdle ante-post piece I very nearly wrote four words, “Big Bucks, no contest”. It was tempting, but I don’t think my employers would have cough up the big bucks for my piece so, here I am.
There is no doubt this race revolves around the participation of the Andy Stewart owned horse, but we’ll have to find something at a price to finish second to him. If I’m being honest I really don’t want to find anything to beat him – I’d have an enormous amount of satisfaction just seeing him win his fourth World Hurdle in as many years and put another nail in the coffin of his doubters.
Odds-on Ante Post favourite - Big Bucks could stroll this one
I just don’t know why some people continually put the boot into the now nine-year-old. Is it because he wasn’t successful over fences? Is it because he keeps winning the World Hurdle, a race with little or no prestige in many peoples eyes? I just don’t get it! Fourteen wins on the bounce the son of Cadoudal has now notched up, eight of those being at the highest level. He’s unbeaten over hurdles in England and on route has taken the scalps of some very good horses. I’ll be the first to admit he hasn’t beaten top class opposition in all his races, but names like Grands Crus and Punchestowns are hardly average and both felt the wrath of Big Bucks on more than one occasion. I don’t think we’ll ever fully know the ability of this horse as he does everything so easily. And then, when done, he has the intelligence to do no more and go through with what can only be described as sufficient effort – he’s the national hunt’s Sea The Stars if you will.
The raw natural ability he possesses is nothing short of amazing. In my short life I think he’s the best national hunt horse I have set my eyes on. His size and looks are that of an Adonis, but he has the engine to match. Sheer brute staying power is accompanied by freakish speed, for a staying horse. His unique style of jumping is surprisingly slick; he flows over most obstacles, in giant like fashion – really dwarfing them. Supplement this with his fantastic temperament and you now have a horse with a massive arsenal. The presence of a world class trainer is simply the icing on the cake for the equine I like to call, ‘the beast’ and/or ‘the aeroplane’. Some planes do crash, however usually due to aging and maintenance or human error, but at the age of nine I can’t see it being this year bar a fall, ironically. If this were to happen, I’d obviously be blaming Ruby Walsh, too. So the quest starts, who can we find to finish second to the mighty Big Bucks?
There are currently two horses to the fore in the betting that look genuine dangers to multiple Grade One scorer, Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars. The pair finished third and fourth, respectably, behind Hurricane Fly in last year’s Champion Hurdle, but now are potential challengers in the staying division. Oscar Whisky managed to finish two lengths in front of Thousand Stars in the 2011 opening day highlight, but it must be noted that the Willie Mullins trained animal had a terrible trip round compared to that of the Seven Barrow’s runner. This two length deficit was cut to a rapidly diminishing neck when the pair clashed again on Merseyside for the Aintree Hurdle – the extra half mile seemingly suiting both horses, but the grey, Thousand Stars, more so. Both are high class animals, but the brace have another engagement, in the Champion Hurdle. If they both turn-up they’ll give Big Buck’s plenty to think about, but at this time cannot be considered for an ante-post wager.
Take out the aforementioned three and this race is wide open and dominated by Irish trained entrants and more specifically from the Willie Mullins yard. As well as Thousand Stars the Carlow handler has entered Zaidpour, Mourad, So Young, Mikael D’Haguenet and the mare, Quevega. Zaidpour was a decent winner today beating a good mare, Voler La Vedette, who is consequently also entered, nicely. He is an unlikely runner due to forecast quicker than ideal conditions, however. Quevega certainly looks like she’ll go for the David Nicholson Mare’s race, but the remaining three may all turn up given they obtained different owners. Mikael D’Haguenet’s owner is a very sporting man and I’m sure he’ll be sending his charge over, now reverted to hurdles. The 2009 winner of the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle has struggled since being sent over larger obstacles failing to complete on a number of occasions while the rest of his runs were littered with mistakes. The switch back to timber has slowly seen his confidence return – his trainer even reporting his old ‘swagger’ to be back. This French bred was once the apple of Ruby Walsh’s eye, but fences stunted his progress. His master trainer is slowly building him up and it may well prove that we see a massive run at a track that clearly holds no fears for him.
Mourad is another that goes well around Cheltenham. His two runs around Prestbury Park have yielded two placed efforts in Grade One races, a third in the 2009 Triumph and again, filling the same berth in last year’s World Hurdle. After being held-up off the pace in the 2011 renewal he did well to finish within five lengths of Big Bucks in what was a very steadily run race. This season has been a little disappointing, but he has been beaten by a reformed mare in races not run to suit. Better ground and a faster pace will show him in a better light come March, if he takes his chance.
On another Mullins runner, he is as his name says, So Young, and he is indeed a baby compared to some of his rivals. Still only a six-year-old, Willie Mullins’ French import has been on a good roll this season after a highly encouraging 2011 campaign. Like Mikael D’Haguenet he has recorded three wins on the trot and like his stable companion, all have been done in facile fashion. He hasn’t beaten much truth be told, but we know he is a class animal. Last year’s Neptune run, when finishing a close up third, was a promising effort. First Lieutenant, Rock On Ruby, who finished ahead of him, have hardly let the form down and the same must be said for Oscars Well who was just in behind. It’s also worth nothing that a bad blunder at the last cost him any chance of winning, but he stuck on well thereafter.
Others prominent in the market include Bobs Worth who looks RSA Chase bound and Dynaste. The latter is obviously a nice type, but good ground will not suit the Pipe runner. Carlito Brigante was a very impressive winner of last year’s Coral Cup, but still has to proof his ability to tackle three miles and furthermore, has had a shocking season thus far. The rest of the notable entrants are all progressive handicappers – the likes of Poungach, Featherbed Lady, Our Father and Smad Place. All are very promising types and I really hope none are asked to contest this event with their best years still ahead of them, especially Smad Place who will go on to bigger and better things in time. I can’t wait to see him over a fence next year!
In summing up I can’t see anything beating Big Bucks. Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars will both prove to be big challenges if lining up here, and preference is for the grey, but both may not even run. The progressive handicappers mentioned have to improve hugely to trouble the market leaders and may be best served by staying down the handicap route. They are ones to keep an eye on in the coming months and seasons in more suitable affairs, however. This now leaves us with the remaining Mullins entourage. Zaidpour and Mikael D’Haguenet are both owned by Rich Ricci and it’s unlikely he’ll run both. Zaidpour prefers plenty of cut which he will unlikely get come March and so, Mikael D’Haguenet will probably represent his owner. The son of Lavirco is on the comeback trail to rescale the heights he reached as a novice hurdler. His trainer is slowly but surely working him back, but he may have to play second fiddle to his stablemate, Mourad. He looks the solid option of the Mullins horses and is also the biggest price. So Young was tentatively passed over in favour of the son of Sinndar. His two previous runs at the festival have been good and at the age of seven he may still be improving. He is slipping under the radar due to his two below par efforts in Ireland this season, but conditions should suit him better come March and I can see him running a big race without seriously threatening Big Buck’s.
Advice:
1.5pts each-way Mourad @ 8-1 (Betting without Big Buck’s market)
