Cheltenham Betting
Ryanair Chase Preview
The introduction of the Ryanair Chase has been a welcome addition to the festival. The race is only five years old but we have seen some decent horses win the Thursday race. Thisthatandtother was the premier winner in 2005, while Our Vic won the 2008 running. Cheltenham Gold Cup contender Imperial Commander won last years renewal beating Schindlers Hunt, who entered again. Dessie Hughes’ horse will do well to finish in the frame this year though, the 2010 running looks quite competitive. The Irish have yet to win this race but could break their duck with current second favourite Tranquil Sea. Other notable Irish runners include Schindlers Hunt and JY Vole.
Paul Nicholls has won two of the last five runnings of the Ryanair and again holds a strong hand with the favourite Poquelin and live outsider Chapoturgeon. Poquelin is obviously Nicholls’ best chance and will take some stopping on form. The form of his Boylesports Gold Cup victory was given a huge boost at the weekend when Razor Royale won the Racing Post Chase. The big question is can he turn around the Paddy Power form with Tranquil Sea? He ran the oddest of races in the Paddy Power, being virtually tailed off before three out and then staying on from no where to finish second. He seems to have improved since the Paddy Power run, especially in the jumping department. A live chance, representing a top team.
This years second favourite is the Edward O’Grady trained Tranquil Sea at 5-1. The son of Sea Raven has been steadily improving all year, racking up three wins in the process and a second in a grade one event. In total he finds himself seventeen pounds higher in the handicap and head of the market for a major festival race. In November, he won the Paddy Power with any amount in hand, beating his chief market rival Poquelin by four and a half lengths. Last Sunday he put up another impressive performance, winning the Newlands Chase with a hands and heels ride. He wasn’t given a tough race and that should leave him spot on for the Ryanair. A huge chance and great value at 5-1.
Nicky Henderson’s Barber Shop has been campaigned at the highest level for the past year, falling short behind the likes of Kauto Star and Denman but always seeming to run well over trips that test his stamina. The drop back to two miles and five furlongs is just what the son of Saddlers Hall needs. He has always travelled well in his races and is quite a keen goer. He jumps for fun and has certainly improved this year but I just get the feeling that something else will come up the hill better. I can see him cruising coming down the hill but what will he find when he meets it? He could be a better price than 6-1 too.
Of the rest, I think Voy Por Ustedes is massively over priced. He is an Arkle and Queen Mother winner, along with other victories in the Melling Chase and Betfair Chase. He is a very high class horse. It seems like he’s been around for years but he is still only a nine year old. Things haven’t gone according to plan this year, a number of things have been against him. Back over two miles five, on good ground, at Cheltenham should see him run well. A great each-way bet at 16-1.
Last years third, Schindlers Hunt is not as good this year and also runs in a more competitive race then the 2009 event, so rule him out.
Planet Of Sound is talented but his jumping problems will surface yet again in a true run race. No value whatsoever.
All in all, it’s going to be very close between the market leaders. I can’t split them after hours of mulling over video footage. Tranquil Sea won his last start very easy and has had the perfect prep race. He’s been improving all year too. Poquelin ran a strange race in the Paddy Power, becoming tailed off and then running on to run Tranquil Sea to four and a half lengths. It was amazing that he got that close to Tranquil Sea and is now two pounds better off. He then destroyed a high class handicap field at Cheltenham and that form has been boosted since. The forecast quicker conditions will also aid Paul Nicholls’ horse. It’s still very hard to split those two. Throw Barbers Shop into the mix and its even more of a puzzle. He has contested at the top level for the last year and won’t be facing a Denman or a Kauto Star here. Also, he’ll be running over a more suitable trip. Of those three, if you had to pin me down, I’d probably go with Poquelin, just because of the Nicholls/Ruby factor and the forecast good ground. But my selection is going to be Voy Por Ustedes. He is still rated ahead of these and his season hasn’t gone according to plan. Everything will be in his favour come the festival and he is more then double the market leader’s price. A great price and a superb value bet.
