World Hurdle Betting Preview
Cheltenham Betting
The World Hurdle, formerly known as the Stayers Hurdle, is said to be the ultimate test for a staying hurdler. Run over three miles at Prestbury Park, stars of the game have won this race. These include the ill fated Inglis Drever, the only three time winner of the event. French super star, Baracouda, won the Thursday showpiece twice before being denied three in a row by Iris’ Gift in 2004. Other winners in the last ten runnings include Bacchanal, who beat our own Limestone Lad in 2000 and My Way De Solzen in 2006.
This year’s event seems to be lacking in competiveness, due to the presence of Big Bucks. And to be honest, it’s hard to get away from Paul Nicholls’ charge; he is a superstar and could easily go down as one of the best stayers ever, if he manages to stay injury free. He’s looking for back to back victories in the race and I don’t think many will bet against him but at 4-7 he is no value. I think he will win though; he won the Long Walk easily from his chief Cheltenham rival, Karabak. I can’t see Karabak turning that form round, unless something goes a rye with Big Bucks.
Big Bucks is the best stayer in the race but there is a slight chink in his armour; he is an out an out stayer. He tends to hit flat spots in his races and if his presence scares off the majority of competitors, I would be worried about a suitable pace in the race.
Those vying to dethrone Big Bucks include Karabak. He is second favourite at 6-1 and deserves to be at the top of the World Hurdle market. Alan King’s son of Kayhasi was second to Mikael D’haguenet in last years Ballymore Properties Novice Hurdle and has continued his good run of form into the New Year. His season pipe opener came at Ascot, where he ran second to Champion Hurdle contender Zaynar. This was an encouraging run over an inadequate trip. His second run came at Newbury, where he bumped into Big Bucks. Again he ran well but truth be told, Big Bucks always had his measure, holding Tony McCoy’s mount by three and a half lengths. However, things could change at Cheltenham. Alan King’s stable were under a cloud when the Long Walk was run and are now coming back to life again. Taking the above into account with a more positive ride, I could see Karabak getting closer to the favourite.
Third favourite is Howard Johnson’s Tidal Bay. He must enter calculations, for a number of reasons. Firstly, his trainer Howard Johnson knows how to win this race; he won it three times with Inglis Drever. Secondly, Tidal Bay has run eight times at Cheltenham, winning four of those. His four other runs on the track read 2 2 3 and 4. He certainly enjoys Cheltenham and more importantly peaks for the festival.
He seemed to have lost his way but looks to have been rejuvenated by the return to hurdling, winning at Cheltenham two weeks ago. The field he beat wasn’t the best but he did it nicely, even though he did appear to carry his head high, which is not an encouraging sign. The former Arkle winner ticks a lot of the right boxes and the faster they go the better for the son of Flemesfirth. A live each-way chance especially in softer conditions.
Another horse who cannot be ruled out due to his Cheltenham form is Katchit. From nine runs, Alan King’s second string has notched up four wins, with the remaining runs giving him form figures of 2 2 3 and 6. His last run was at Cheltenham and was some what of an experimental one. It was the son of Kalanisi’s first try at an extreme trip and he stayed very well, running on to be third behind Tidal Bay. It’s hard to believe the former champion hurdler is only seven. He is as genuine as the day is long and at 33-1 is a massive price with his previous Cheltenham form.
The horse I fancy to give Big Bucks a run for his money is Sentry Duty. Trained by Nicky Henderson, this eight year old has slipped under the radar in my opinion. He’s only had the one run this year, beating a good yard stick in Katchit by 3 lengths. He is bound to come on a tonne for that run, which was also on unfavourable soft ground. The step up in trip could potentially bring out some improvement. He stayed one mile six on the flat so three miles could be within his range over hurdles. He was rated 101 on the flat which is quite a decent mark. On good ground, he should run a big race. Beware though, Nicky Henderson hasn’t stated him a definite runner, saying “It’s a hard one. Does this prove he stays? He’s just done them for toe and Barry actually wants to come back to two miles. He doesn’t want to go over further, but you would be tempted by the World Hurdle route”.
Another horse to quickly mention is Mourad. Willie Mullins’ five year old is superbly bred, being a half brother to Mourilyan and Mourayan. He was third in last years Triumph Hurdle, staying on nicely at the end. The better ground is sure to bring out the best in him but he won’t have the services of Ruby Walsh. He is grossly over priced at 25-1, with the extra yardage expected to bring out some more improvement.
To conclude, I still think Big Bucks will win but at 4-7, he’s not worth backing. I think Karabak will be second but is no real value at 6-1. Tidal Bay’s attitude didn’t impress me the last day but he undoubtedly has talent. Sentry Duty is potentially a big improver over the trip but at 12-1 isn’t great value either, especially when he is not a certain runner. The two grossly over priced horses are Katchit and Mourad. For those fairytale believers, I’d advise a small bet each-way on Katchit (maybe War Of Attrition too) without the favourite. At 25-1 Mourad is a massive price. If you could get 14-1/16-1 without Big Bucks, I think that’s a great value bet.
