Cheltenham Betting
Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle
• All of the last ten winners were aged five or six
• Nine out of the last ten winners have started in the first six in the betting.
• Nine out of the last ten winners had finished first or second last time out
• Nine out of the last ten winners had already won over at least 2m 4f over hurdles
• 10 of the last 11 Irish winners had previously won at Leopardstown
For this race it is usually worth pointing out that the last 12 Challow hurdle winners who have run here have lost therefore will discount Reve De Sivola just like I discounted Diamond Harry last year.
The Irish have a very strong hand in this race and I would be surprised if they did not put up a bold show to win this race.
I like the trend for Irish Leopardstown winners this would be positive for the likes of Quel Esprit and Rite of Passage here.
I also like to take ex bumper horses for this race as they outperform the ex flat horses 8 to 2 in the last 11 years (Last year we had an exceptional horse called Mikael D’haquenet who started off his career in French hurdle)
Quel Esprit for Willie Mullins has won 2 of his 3 hurdle races, just beaten last time out behind Coole River who I rate very highly.
He is an ex bumper horse who won at Leopardstown over 2m4f (won by 13 lengths).
He was 4th in last year’s Champion bumper so has a previous run at the festival and should know what to expect from it.
Quel Esprit stays further (won a decent stayers novice hurdle at Cork in December over 3 miles) so will not lack in stamina.
Willie Mullins has won the race the last 2 years and I predict he will win it again this year.
Rite Of Passage is a danger and to some people, the one to beat.
This horse was 2nd in last year’s Champion bumper and is very good indeed.He has won his last 2 hurdle races in good style and is clearly an exciting horse.
He has winning form at Leopardstown and is the favorite for this race.
Good, good to soft going won’t hinder either horse as both will go just fine.
Others who may have a say in the result would be Finian’s Rainbow who won’t have a problem stepping up in trip, and has good winning form at Ascot coming into this race.
Fionnegas is useful just found out on the last 2 occasions on Class 1 hurdle form but has the experience now and has been running in decent races. He can make the frame here (also entered in the Albert Bartlett race on Friday and would be very interesting stepped up in trip).
Peddler’s Cross is entered in this race and the Supreme, and whatever race he does turn up in he is worth backing each-way.
I am sure he will be seen to better effect on better ground and if trained by Mullins or Nicholls this would be half the price it is now.
He has won a grade 2 novice hurdle by 16 lengths and is very useful, jumps very swiftly and is unbeaten.
Quel Espirit can make a bold bid to win this race but Peddler’s Cross could be the one to trouble him.
Recommended Bets:
Quel Espirit 2 pts win @ 13/2
Peddler’s Cross 1 pt each-way @ 8/1
Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle Betting
