He was a little before my time, but the great Badsworth Boy is the only horse to win the Queen Mother three times. Master Minded was cruelly denied this feat in 2010, by the Gods, when Cheltenham’s racing turf was deemed too quick for the dual winner and he finished out of the frame. Quick is certainly an appropriate adjective to use with other past winners – racing greats like Flyingbolt, Viking Flagship, One Man and Moscow Flyer are all household names in the National Hunt circuit. A special mention must also go to an old favourite of mine, Well Chief, who never won this race, but was strongly part of a golden era for two mile chasers. Sadly he never fulfilled his potential due to an injury which first plagued him at six.

In terms of age, there seems to be no boundary in finding the winner. Over the past decade, winners have varied from five to eleven. Age should not be a barrier to finding the winner and in general class really tells.

Like this year’s World Hurdle, the Queen Mother doesn’t look the most appetizing race from an ante-post perspective. Those to the fore in the market seem to be priced up accordingly and if anything, probably a touch on the short side.

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A horse who’s quite short, but is a deserving favourite is the Irish trained Sizing Europe. Henry De Bromhead’s charge has been a model of consistency throughout his career and really is a credit to connections. Thirteen career wins for the son of Pistolet Bleu, five at the highest level, go some way to showing you his class. These wins have been gained from sixteen to twenty furlongs, going left-handed, right-handed and on a whole host of varying grounds – he’s a top class horse. The funny thing though, he may have been even better. A persistent itch for connections to turn him in to a Gold Cup horse, means his legacy has suffered. In the two mile division he’s as good as we’ve seen since Moscow Flyer. His class, versatility, slick safe jumping along with his pace makes him the perfect mould for a two mile chaser. The fact that he is very much a spring horse also bodes well for a repeat success for the 2011 winner. Spring ground around Prestbury Park will improve him further on what he’s done this year. After a slow start on unfavorable soft ground at Gowran Park, he somewhat bounced back when finishing a gutsy second to the decent Quito De La Roque over a taxing three miles. The drop back to the minimum trip saw him return to winning ways as he dismantled what could only be described as an average two mile field. However, he’s done it very easily and with the spring nearing he can only improve. The massively underrated Andrew Lynch will take the ride providing he’s fit and available and this is another big plus. Sizing is the one to beat, but offers no value in terms of an ante-post bet.

Ireland has a very strong hand in this year’s Champion Chase. Along with Sizing Europe, Big Zeb is another to take heed of. The 2010 Queen Mother winner had to settle for second best last year behind his Irish counterpart, Sizing Europe. Colm Murphy’s stable star still ran a cracker, but just couldn’t live with Sizing Europe up the hill. Retribution quickly followed though when the pair clashed at the Punchestown Festival. A six-length deficit was turned into a three-quarter-of-a-length beating as he notched up another top flight win. He’s another horse that Ireland must be proud of. Six wins in Grade One company, all over fences, mean this is a horse to strongly consider. This so, even at the age of eleven. The son of Oscar is entering the veteran stage in his career, but his form this season has been of a high standard. Twice he has beaten last year’s Cheltenham Jewson Novice’s Chase winner, Noble Prince, in good style. Connections report him to still be in love with his racing and ‘as good as ever’. The horse who once had jumping difficulties is now a more accomplished leaper although he can throw in the odd howler. This is still a slight worry for me, but his class and neat turn of foot should still see him into a place at minimum. His advancing years are a slight concern and getting up that hill may prove a little bit tougher at eleven. He has a huge chance, but I’d fancy Sizing Europe to confirm last year’s Queen Mother placings.

The young pretenders will have to improve massively to trouble the aforementioned pair, but it’s not beyond the realms of possibility. Heading the line is Finian’s Rainbow and Wishful Thinking – both runners-up in their respective races at last year’s festival. The two are also nine-year-olds which is quite deep-rooted for second season chasers. The pair are both lightly raced, however, so they should still be improving.

The Nicky Henderson trained runner is half the price of Wishful Thinking so we’ll start with him. The nine-year-old son of Tiraaz was a gallant second in last season’s Arkle Chase behind the classy Captain Chris. Previous prominent Arkle runners have a terrific record in the Queen Mother when taking in this race the following year. The big question is can he step up to the likes of Sizing Europe and Big Zeb? This horse has plenty of the attributes needed to go very close – he jumps well, stays strongly, has a touch of class, handles the course, but does he possess the raw ability of the big two in the market? These are all serious questions which may not be answered till March. His comeback run in the Desert Orchid Chase was nothing short of remarkable. After jumping soundly throughout he made a bone crunching blunder four-out and upon touching down, stumbled on landing, too. He then had four lengths to make-up on the leaders between the last two, but a good jump at the last saw him get back in contention. Then, he showed a very smart turn of foot to sail by Wishful Thinking to score snuggly. Among other things he is obviously quite tough. Another variable that will boost his followers confidence is that of where he is housed, Seven Barrows. Nicky Henderson is a trainer I have huge admiration for - there aren’t many better than him and he has a superb record at Cheltenham. If he can improve this lightly-raced type further, of which there is a distinct possibility, Finian’s Rainbow should be able to challenge the ‘big two’.

Wishful Thinking is another who will need to improve to challenge the pair at the head of the market. Philip Hobbs’ inmate is becoming a bit of an enigma for me now. He finished last season’s top novice on official ratings after three super displays at the big national hunt racing festivals. A second at Cheltenham was followed by two outstanding wins at Aintree and Punchestown. This year, however has been abysmal by his 2011 form. He was well beaten in the Paddy Power, hammered in the Tingle Creek, but then returned to form when running Finian’s Rainbow close at Kempton. In a bizarre race, he made a serious mistake at the same fence as the Henderson horse – heavily breasting it in ploy like fashion. He somehow recovered, like the winner, to run a big race, but was just touched off close to home. It was very much a step in the right direction and if he can rediscover the Wishful Thinking of last year, a tough, consistent, exuberant jumper, he can be in the shake-up. His seasonal form is off putting, though and I’d strongly fancy Finian’s to uphold the Kempton run come Cheltenham. He was the value in the race at 20-1 before Pricewise put him up and if he had stayed that price, I would have certainly plumped for son of Alflora. The value has now evaporated for me.

Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross are both entered here as well as the Arkle. Given their novice status I’ll be putting a line straight them through them as ante-post options. Even if they were to run I’d still fancy Sizing Europe to show them who’s boss.

Of the rest I really can’t see a whole pile getting into it. Two at the prices I think could run big races are Ghizao at 33-1 and Forpaddydeplasterer at 40-1. Both have multiple engagements at the festival which doesn’t really entice one to put up an ante-post bet. Of the two I really like Ghizao. This is a horse that simply has not fulfilled his potential yet. One thing that has let him down time and again is his jumping. If Paul Nicholls ironed out these problems and sent him here I’d certainly be in at the price. It’s far too big for what he’s achieved on the track. People forget he destroyed Captain Chris twice last season before disappointing in the Arkle. Both came on softish ground which may well be the key to him. After his customary blunder at Aintree, Finain’s Rainbow still had to fight like a dog to see Ghizao off. Two lengths separated the pair at the line, but yet, the Nicholls horse is six times the price. The Manor Farm trainer has suggested he may run in a handicap, but if rerouted to here he would be of massive interest at that price.

In summing up I’m really struggling to find anything of worth. Ghizao is the undoubted value for me, but is far from certain to run here. I really like Sizing Europe and they all have to beat him. Big Zeb is his biggest danger currently, and may just offer a touch of value at the prices. Finian’s Rainbow may prevail as the biggest danger to Sizing’s crown, but in comparisons to Big Zeb, in terms of price, he offers no value for a horse that still has to prove his worth. On last year’s form Wishful Thinking is a big price, but he has struggled this year with his form and also, reportedly, with his breathing. He may well improve as the season goes on, but presently is a risky proposition. The rest have a long way to go, but I advise a watching brief on Ghizao at his prize.

Weighing-up the race I’ve come to an obvious conclusion in terms of my pick, Big Zeb. At the prices he’s the only one who will run (hopefully – just one entry), that offers a touch of value. He’s a previous winner of this race and at the age of eleven shows no signs of spiraling on a downward curve. He may well go off shorter on the day and for me is a solid each-way bet to nothing – I can’t see him out of the first three. In a very tough ante-post race to assess Big Zeb gets the each-way call.

Advice:
2.5pts each-way Big Zeb @ 9-2

Queen Mother Champion Chase Betting

Cheltenham Betting

For my World Hurdle ante-post piece I very nearly wrote four words, “Big Bucks, no contest”. It was tempting, but I don’t think my employers would have cough up the big bucks for my piece so, here I am.

There is no doubt this race revolves around the participation of the Andy Stewart owned horse, but we’ll have to find something at a price to finish second to him. If I’m being honest I really don’t want to find anything to beat him – I’d have an enormous amount of satisfaction just seeing him win his fourth World Hurdle in as many years and put another nail in the coffin of his doubters.

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I just don’t know why some people continually put the boot into the now nine-year-old. Is it because he wasn’t successful over fences? Is it because he keeps winning the World Hurdle, a race with little or no prestige in many peoples eyes? I just don’t get it! Fourteen wins on the bounce the son of Cadoudal has now notched up, eight of those being at the highest level. He’s unbeaten over hurdles in England and on route has taken the scalps of some very good horses. I’ll be the first to admit he hasn’t beaten top class opposition in all his races, but names like Grands Crus and Punchestowns are hardly average and both felt the wrath of Big Bucks on more than one occasion. I don’t think we’ll ever fully know the ability of this horse as he does everything so easily. And then, when done, he has the intelligence to do no more and go through with what can only be described as sufficient effort – he’s the national hunt’s Sea The Stars if you will.

The raw natural ability he possesses is nothing short of amazing. In my short life I think he’s the best national hunt horse I have set my eyes on. His size and looks are that of an Adonis, but he has the engine to match. Sheer brute staying power is accompanied by freakish speed, for a staying horse. His unique style of jumping is surprisingly slick; he flows over most obstacles, in giant like fashion – really dwarfing them. Supplement this with his fantastic temperament and you now have a horse with a massive arsenal. The presence of a world class trainer is simply the icing on the cake for the equine I like to call, ‘the beast’ and/or ‘the aeroplane’. Some planes do crash, however usually due to aging and maintenance or human error, but at the age of nine I can’t see it being this year bar a fall, ironically. If this were to happen, I’d obviously be blaming Ruby Walsh, too. So the quest starts, who can we find to finish second to the mighty Big Bucks?

There are currently two horses to the fore in the betting that look genuine dangers to multiple Grade One scorer, Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars. The pair finished third and fourth, respectably, behind Hurricane Fly in last year’s Champion Hurdle, but now are potential challengers in the staying division. Oscar Whisky managed to finish two lengths in front of Thousand Stars in the 2011 opening day highlight, but it must be noted that the Willie Mullins trained animal had a terrible trip round compared to that of the Seven Barrow’s runner. This two length deficit was cut to a rapidly diminishing neck when the pair clashed again on Merseyside for the Aintree Hurdle – the extra half mile seemingly suiting both horses, but the grey, Thousand Stars, more so. Both are high class animals, but the brace have another engagement, in the Champion Hurdle. If they both turn-up they’ll give Big Buck’s plenty to think about, but at this time cannot be considered for an ante-post wager.

Take out the aforementioned three and this race is wide open and dominated by Irish trained entrants and more specifically from the Willie Mullins yard. As well as Thousand Stars the Carlow handler has entered Zaidpour, Mourad, So Young, Mikael D’Haguenet and the mare, Quevega. Zaidpour was a decent winner today beating a good mare, Voler La Vedette, who is consequently also entered, nicely. He is an unlikely runner due to forecast quicker than ideal conditions, however. Quevega certainly looks like she’ll go for the David Nicholson Mare’s race, but the remaining three may all turn up given they obtained different owners. Mikael D’Haguenet’s owner is a very sporting man and I’m sure he’ll be sending his charge over, now reverted to hurdles. The 2009 winner of the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle has struggled since being sent over larger obstacles failing to complete on a number of occasions while the rest of his runs were littered with mistakes. The switch back to timber has slowly seen his confidence return – his trainer even reporting his old ‘swagger’ to be back. This French bred was once the apple of Ruby Walsh’s eye, but fences stunted his progress. His master trainer is slowly building him up and it may well prove that we see a massive run at a track that clearly holds no fears for him.

Mourad is another that goes well around Cheltenham. His two runs around Prestbury Park have yielded two placed efforts in Grade One races, a third in the 2009 Triumph and again, filling the same berth in last year’s World Hurdle. After being held-up off the pace in the 2011 renewal he did well to finish within five lengths of Big Bucks in what was a very steadily run race. This season has been a little disappointing, but he has been beaten by a reformed mare in races not run to suit. Better ground and a faster pace will show him in a better light come March, if he takes his chance.

On another Mullins runner, he is as his name says, So Young, and he is indeed a baby compared to some of his rivals. Still only a six-year-old, Willie Mullins’ French import has been on a good roll this season after a highly encouraging 2011 campaign. Like Mikael D’Haguenet he has recorded three wins on the trot and like his stable companion, all have been done in facile fashion. He hasn’t beaten much truth be told, but we know he is a class animal. Last year’s Neptune run, when finishing a close up third, was a promising effort. First Lieutenant, Rock On Ruby, who finished ahead of him, have hardly let the form down and the same must be said for Oscars Well who was just in behind. It’s also worth nothing that a bad blunder at the last cost him any chance of winning, but he stuck on well thereafter.

Others prominent in the market include Bobs Worth who looks RSA Chase bound and Dynaste. The latter is obviously a nice type, but good ground will not suit the Pipe runner. Carlito Brigante was a very impressive winner of last year’s Coral Cup, but still has to proof his ability to tackle three miles and furthermore, has had a shocking season thus far. The rest of the notable entrants are all progressive handicappers – the likes of Poungach, Featherbed Lady, Our Father and Smad Place. All are very promising types and I really hope none are asked to contest this event with their best years still ahead of them, especially Smad Place who will go on to bigger and better things in time. I can’t wait to see him over a fence next year!

In summing up I can’t see anything beating Big Bucks. Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars will both prove to be big challenges if lining up here, and preference is for the grey, but both may not even run. The progressive handicappers mentioned have to improve hugely to trouble the market leaders and may be best served by staying down the handicap route. They are ones to keep an eye on in the coming months and seasons in more suitable affairs, however. This now leaves us with the remaining Mullins entourage. Zaidpour and Mikael D’Haguenet are both owned by Rich Ricci and it’s unlikely he’ll run both. Zaidpour prefers plenty of cut which he will unlikely get come March and so, Mikael D’Haguenet will probably represent his owner. The son of Lavirco is on the comeback trail to rescale the heights he reached as a novice hurdler. His trainer is slowly but surely working him back, but he may have to play second fiddle to his stablemate, Mourad. He looks the solid option of the Mullins horses and is also the biggest price. So Young was tentatively passed over in favour of the son of Sinndar. His two previous runs at the festival have been good and at the age of seven he may still be improving. He is slipping under the radar due to his two below par efforts in Ireland this season, but conditions should suit him better come March and I can see him running a big race without seriously threatening Big Buck’s.

Advice:
1.5pts each-way Mourad @ 8-1 (Betting without Big Buck’s market)

World Hurdle Betting

Football

It’s FA Cup fourth round weekend and the main match features two of football’s oldest rivals as Liverpool welcome Manchester United to Anfield on Saturday lunchtime. The home side are unbeaten this season in the Premier League but have drawn seven of their eleven games. United seem capable of grinding out results and are 7/4 to make the fifth round. A draw at 11/5 might be the best call.

Liverpool v Man United

Spurs’ priority remains Champions League qualification and so there could be some value in Watford beating Harry Redknapp’s side on Friday evening at 6/1. Fulham are good value at 14/5 to win at struggling Everton while last season’s finalists Stoke should be too good for Derby at 6/5.

Newcastle came a cropper away from home in the FA Cup last season and there will be many tempted by the 3/1 available on Brighton in Saturday’s late kick-off. Sunderland are 4/6 to beat local rivals Middlesbrough on Sunday while Arsenal should beat Aston Villa at 4/7.

FA Cup Matches

Football Betting

Golf

After a few weeks in Africa, the European Tour meets up with the cricketers this week as it arrives in Abu Dhabi for the HSBC Golf Championship.

Some of the world’s top golfers are back in action this weekend after their winter break and it promises to be a great event. Rory McIlroy is the 13/2 joint favourite having finished eleventh, fifth, third and second in the last four years. Martin Kaymer is also available at 13/2 having won this tournament in three of the last four years.

According to McIlroy, Tiger Woods is back to 100% fitness and is available at 8/1 while the English pair of Luke Donald and Lee Westwood can both be backed at 12/1.

Phil Mickelson is a three time winner of the Farmer’s Insurance Open and is the 14/1 joint favourite this weekend. Reigning champion Bubba Watson can be backed at 25/1.

Golf Betting

Cricket

After their heavy defeat in the opening Test, England will be looking to bounce back with a win over Pakistan in the Second Test. The match reaches its climax this weekend (assuming, of course, that England put up a better fight than they did ten days ago).
There’s also a Test match in Napier which finishes on Sunday. New Zealand are 1/4 to beat visitors Zimbabwe.

Cricket Betting

Tennis

The 100th Australian Open reaches its climax this weekend with some intriguing clashes in prospect.

The top four seeds have, as expected, reached the semi-finals in Melbourne although my each way tip for the title, Andy Murray, faces a difficult challenge in overcoming tournament favourite Novak Djokovic.

Roger Federer has been in imperious form and the 30 year old could well win his 17th Grand Slam title if he can beat old rival Rafael Nadal in the last four.

Before the tournament I tipped Maria Sharapova at 14/1 and the Russian is now into 10/3 for the title. Reigning champion Kim Clijsters is also available at 10/3 in her last Australian Open while Wimbledon champion and potential world number one Petra Kvitova is the 13/8 favourite.

Tennis Betting

Rugby Union

After last week’s Heineken Cup action, there is more Cup rugby to look forward to this weekend with group stage matches in the LV Cup.

The pick of the weekend’s matches sees the leaders of Pools 1 and 4 go head to head at the Recreation Ground as Bath take on Northampton. Pool 3 leaders Scarlets can consolidate their position with a win over Pool 2 leaders London Irish while Leicester face a tough match at Harlequins.

Gloucester need a win to keep up their excellent recent record in the competition and play the Cardiff Blues on Saturday.

Rugby Union Betting

Horse Racing

The Argento Chase at Cheltenham is a trial for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and is one of several good races at Saturday’s Festival Trials Day. Previous winners include Exotic Dancer and Neptune Collonges and Grand Crus is the 2/1 favourite from Captain Chris and Diamond Harry.

Sunday sees the BHP Irish Champion Hurdle from Leopardstown with Cheltenham Champion Hurdle winner Hurricane Fly the 4/7 favourite.

Elsewhere, there is racing on Saturday from Doncaster, Lingfield Park and Uttoxeter.

Racing Betting

Weekly Betting Tips

Football

There are a couple of belting matches to look forward to this weekend as four of this season’s ‘big five’ meet on Sunday.

First up, Manchester City provide the biggest test of Spurs’ Premier League title credentials so far as the two sides meet at Eastlands. It’s arguably the perfect time to be playing City considering they are missing several key players through injury, suspension and international call-ups. Spurs can take a giant stride towards their first league title in decades with a win at 3/1, but I fancy the home side to prevail at 10/11.

Man City v Spurs

The second big match on Sunday sees Arsenal welcome Manchester United. There’s less rivalry between these two sides than there was in the infamous Battle of the Buffet days and United have held the upper hand in recent meetings. Sir Alex Ferguson’s side are 13/8 to win at the Emirates.

Arsenal v Man United

Norwich are excellent value at 9/2 to beat struggling Chelsea at Carrow Road on Saturday while Stoke should be backed at 10/11 to see off West Brom. Wolves are 7/5 to record a vital win over Aston Villa.

Premier League Matches

The African Cup of Nations begins this weekend with the Ivory Coast the clear 6/4 favourites for the title. I fancy Senegal at 11/2 and the Lions are 4/7 to beat Zambia on Saturday.

Football Betting

Golf

There’s a strong local contingent at Fancourt this weekend for the Volvo Golf Champions tournament.

Recent Africa Open winner Louis Oosthuizen is the 5/1 favourite from compatriots Charl Schwartzl, Retief Goosen and Ernie Els. Padraig Harrington had a poor 2011 and can be backed at 20/1 while the young Italian Matteo Manassero could be worth backing at 33/1.

The renamed Humana Challenge is the PGA tour event this week with the tournament having been reduced from 90 holes to a traditional 72 hole competition this year. Phil Mickelson and Matt Kuchar are the joint 16/1 favourites with Bill Haas available at 20/1. Haas has a good record in this event having won in 2010 and narrowly failing to retain his title in a playoff in 2011.

Golf Betting

Cricket

It was an inauspicious opening day for England as they began their 2012 Test campaign against Pakistan in Dubai. Assuming that the Test runs its course it will run to this weekend with the ‘home’ team looking to take a 1-0 win in the series.

South Africa play Sri Lanka in two further one day internationals; in Kimberley on Friday and in Johannesburg on Sunday.

Cricket Betting

Tennis

Reaching the second week of the Australian Open is the aim of the major seeds in the baking heat of Melbourne this weekend.
Novak Djokovic remains the 6/5 favourite to retain his title, although I like the 5/1 available on Andy Murray who has been beaten in the final in each of the last two years.

The women’s tournament is wide open with a dozen potential winners. My tip before the tournament was Maria Sharapova who is currently available at 14/1 while reigning champion Kim Clijsters can be backed at 8/1.

Tennis Betting

Rugby Union

The last eight for this season’s Heineken Cup will be decided this weekend as the final round of pool matches take place across Europe.

There’s a titanic battle for qualification from pool 2 with both Edinburgh and Cardiff Blues on 17 points. The Blues should beat Racing Metro while Edinburgh face the trickier of the games at home to unpredictable London Irish.

Leinster and Munster have already qualified and so can take things easy against Montpellier and Northampton respectively, although the Saints could still qualify as the best second place team with a good win.

Ulster thumped Leicester last weekend to stay on top of pool 4 although they face a tough trip to my tip for the Cup, Clermont Auvergne, on Saturday. With 19 points already, the Irish side may still qualify even if they lose this tie.

Saracens can book their place in the quarter finals by beating Treviso while Harlequins can join them if they win in Connacht on Friday night. Premiership rivals Gloucester would do the Quins a huge favour by beating their pool 6 challengers Toulouse.

Rugby Betting

Horse Racing

The big race on Saturday is the Victor Chandler Chase over 2 miles at Ascot, won by Master Minded in two of the last three years.
Finian’s Rainbow is the 7/4 favourite this year although is prone to errors which could prove costly in this company. Somersby at 6/1 may be the better bet having finished second to Master Minded in this race last year. Al Ferof is the second favourite at 11/4.

Weather permitting, the other racing this Saturday comes from Haydock Park, Lingfield Park and Wincanton.

Racing Betting

The 2012 Champion Hurdle will be run on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival on the Old Course, the less demanding of the two tracks. A Grade One event run over two miles one hundred and ten yards, its roll of honor is full of past greats. Hattons Grace, Sir Ken, Persian War, See You Then and Istabraq have all etched their names into this race’s history three times. Night Nurse, Monksfield, Sea Pigeon, Dawn Run and Hardy Eustace must also get favourable mentions.

Hardy Eustace was the last equine to win back-to-back renewals, a feat Hurricane Fly will bid to emulate this coming March. Willie Mullins’ inmate’s participation was strongly in doubt pre-Christmas after missing two intended engagements. Recent reports have been much more encouraging which will delight his staunch supporters. I’m sure Mullins will get the 2011 hero to Prestbury Park in good order for a race which essentially revolves around the now eight-year-old.

Eight-year-olds have won only two of the last ten runnings with four seven-year-olds, two six-year-olds and one five and nine-year-old each also tasting glory. Not an inspiring stat for eight-year-olds which include Binocular, Hurricane Fly, Overturn and Thousand Stars, but both previous winners, being eight, did run prominently the previous year which bodes well for the Irish trained pair. Five-year-olds and nine and above must be avoided with both having poor win records. Six five-year-olds and two-nine-year-old have been placed since 2002. We have to go back as far as 1987 for the last lady winner who was the exceptional, then six-year-old, Dawn Run.

The Champion Hurdle hasn’t done exactly what it says on the tin in recent years with a number of average renewals going to post. Apart from last year we have to go back as far as 2007 for an intriguing race. 2005 (Hardy Eustace) and 2006 (Brave Inca) were high-class Champion Hurdles and I feel 2012 will once again be a race to savour.

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For 2012, no better place to start than the favourite, Hurricane Fly. Like many others I feel this year’s renewal revolves around the participation and form of the multiple graded successor. Last year’s impressive winner has been curtailed by injury problems in seasons gone by, but he put those worries behind him to take the scalp of the classy Peddlers Cross in 2011 - also leaving the likes of Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars six-and-a-quarter and eight-and-a-quarter lengths behind, respectively. That was the ninth success at the highest level for the son of Montjeu. His flat racing pedigree means he’s not overly big, scopey or burley, but like his sire he has class and speed in abundance. That being said, he is a horse that clearly stays well too – an easy win in the 2010 Hatton’s Grace Hurdle (2m 4f, soft) a testament to this. This particular day he had the likes of Solwhit, Voler La Vedette and Mourad behind further strengthening his already uppermost status. His recent injury problems are off-putting, but I have to take my hat off to Willie Mullins whom I think is handling the horse beautifully. Mullins is bidding his time and giving Hurricane Fly all the nurturing he needs – a ploy already used well by the Carlow handler in getting the eight-year-old back on the track. And that’s also the scary thing; Hurricane Fly is now only eight and physically, is at his peak. He may well improve again! With his master trainer being patient and Hurricane Fly’s class, speed, stamina and fluid hurdling, I still feel he’ll take plenty of beating. Recent reports about his well-being have been very positive and I have no doubt he’ll turn-up at Prestbury Park in great condition. His ability to handle soft and quick ground is also another massive plus and I take the view cut suits him best.

Nicky Henderson is currently joint top trainer in Champion Hurdle wins with five (See You Then (3), Punjabi and Binocular) and looks to have a very strong team going into this year’s race. Binocular, Grandouet and Sprit Son are all strongly to the fore in the current market - all three have sound chances and as a matter of respect, we’ll start with Binocular first.

The 2010 Champion Hurdle winner was denied the chance to defend his crown in bizarre circumstances last year after an allergy he suffered caused him to be withdrawn - the drugs he was treated with would have caused him to fail a sample test. From there it went from bad to worse as he was well beaten behind Oscar Whisky in the Aintree Hurdle. More disappointment followed for connections when again, he was well beaten behind Hurricane Fly in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle at Punchestown. The classy, quick, fluent hurdler we had known was in another lifetime it seemed. His 2010 win was done in stylish fashion, but with hindsight it probably wasn’t the greatest renewal and he will certainly face a tougher caliber of opposition come March. That being said, he is another who now, physically, should be at the peak of his powers and there’re signs that his ability still remains. After his usual opening race lackluster effort, he went to Kempton to claim back-to-back Christmas Hurdle’s. There he beat Rock On Ruby by a neck which is by no means top class form. Immediately after the race, Tony McCoy felt his mount wasn’t at his best which is encouraging for his supporters, but he’ll need to raise his game significantly to challenge the likes of Hurricane Fly.

Grandouet is another Henderson horse that warrants respect. The son of Al Namix is a young horse that I really like. He travels so strongly and has a nice turn of foot, but also a touch of class. At the age of five he can only improve and is very much one for the future. Even at his tender age I think he’ll run a massive race and has a great chance of turning last year’s Triumph form around with Zarkandar and Unaccompanied. This is possible for a number of reasons. One; he is a horse who has strengthened up and improved and two; the switch from the New Course to the Old will be a massive help as the Old track is less demanding and so, shall not blunt his speed. His current official rating of 166 puts him on a par with Binocular and given his age, improvement can be expected. However, he doesn’t offer any value at 7-1. I also think a flat track like Aintree would bring out the very best in him and I also have a slight problem with his ‘airy’ jumping. He spends a little time in the air when jumping, longer than ideal for a Championship race, but is a solid jumper none the less.

Similar comments apply to Spirit Son whose price of 7-1 is based on reputation rather than form. Nevertheless, I get the feeling this horse could be a little bit special; a thought Nicky Henderson feels himself. Having only seen the racetrack proper five times in his career, I’ll be astounded if there isn’t significant improvement from last season’s successful season. Yes connections will feel disappointed with his second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, but he ran a super race. He then went to Aintree for the John Smith’s Mersey Novices’ Hurdle and absolutely destroyed the field which included the likes of Cue Card and Rock On Ruby – both of whom have franked the form nicely this year. Quick accurate hurdling was a consistent theme throughout the year which helped supplement his already present natural talent. His raw ability guided him into second in the Supreme, but now that he has grown up he may leave his already classy form behind and flourish. Barry Geraghty reported his early season work to be ‘unbelievable’ before a slight set-back saw an easy routine for a few weeks. Henderson now reports his inmate to be ready to run very soon and the 7-1 on offer, although not great value, may be so come March. A horse I’m really looking forward to returning especially as connections say he has grown and developed nicely.

Others to the fore in the market worth mentioning include the very classy mare, Unaccompanied. Dermot Weld’s girl was a good second in last year’s Triumph Hurdle behind Zarkandar and in front of Grandouet. Like the latter mentioned, she will enjoy the easier Old Course at Prestbury Park which will allow her to use her good flat speed. She will have to break all the stats, however. The last girl to win the Champion Hurdle was the brilliant Dawn Run when she was six, way back in 1984. The daughter of Danehill Dancer will have to break this stat and I can’t see her doing it.

Zarkandar was a very taking winner of last year’s Triumph Hurdle and is another I’m looking forward to seeing. This half-brother to unbeaten and outstanding 1m-1m4f performer, Zarkava, certainly has a classy enough pedigree to go far in this game, but his form last year is of great substance now. Both the second and third in the Triumph have gone on to win Grade One events with a whole host of further winners down the field. The form is strong, but I have doubts whether he’ll be a genuine two miler. The Old course at Cheltenham is also a negative. He’d probably prefer having this run on the New Course where his stamina would come into play to a higher degree. The fact he is a second season hurdler and is only five is another worry. I do like him, however. He has a real touch of class and jumps well. I just don’t see him as a genuine two mile horse. He could replace Big Bucks in the staying division in a number of years.

Rock On Ruby offers no value in what he’s achieved and Oscars Well has been a shade disappointing this year. Again, the latter doesn’t seem to be a genuine two miler either.

For me, the value in the race lies with another Willie Mullins inmate, Thousand Stars. The classy grey was fourth in last year’s Champion Hurdle behind his stable mate in what looked an unlucky run for me. Having sat behind the much speedier Hurricane Fly for a good deal of the way, he saw plenty of daylight early in the race while also racing a little wider than ideal. Hurricane Fly had the dream run throughout. Rounding the final turn he was done no favours by his own stable mate who caused him to run off the last bend slightly, forfeiting some momentum while steering a wider course. Once hitting the hill however, he ran on very nicely. His form this year has been good for a horse that generally comes to himself in the spring. Like Cheltenham of last year, he was the victim of not being made enough use of when turned over by Unaccompanied last time out. Before that, he was a cosy winner on his seasonal debut when making the running and if similar tactics are used at Cheltenham he’ll take plenty of pegging back. Also, with Ruby certain to ride Hurricane Fly, if he runs, Paul Townend will hopefully pick up the spare. No disrespect to the brilliant Katie Walsh, but Townend may be that bit stronger in the plate and can hopefully eke out some further improvement.

Improving horses makes the Champion Hurdle a tough race to assess this year. Given three of the first four in the market have yet to race, but are probably still improving, this makes it a real head scratcher. Hurricane Fly, Spirit Son and Zarkandar have all had their little problems, but I don’t think any have been of a serious nature. Some of last year’s novice hurdlers have improved significantly like Grandouet and Unaccompanied, but both are still only five and are now entering the big leagues. Rock On Ruby has come forward from his novice season very well, but still failed to beat a below par Binocular and both don’t seem to have the raw ability to challenge the three seasonal unraced market leaders. Oscars Well has been disappointing, but spring ground may spark him into better form and the return to Cheltenham, where he was so unlucky last year, may also help. I still think he has a bit too find, though.

This leaves me with Hurricane Fly, Spirit Son and Zarkandar. The latter mentioned has had a wind operation which don’t always have the desired effect. Furthermore, he is still only five and may want further in time. He’s not for me, but I’m sure he’ll run a massive race.

And so there were two. Hurricane Fly looks the likely winner to me, but at 2-1 he’s not ante-post betting material especially with the length of his previous vet bills. Therefore, Spirit Son will be the selection, but, in the ‘betting without Hurricane Fly’ market. I’m really looking forward to seeing the son of Poliglote back in action. Nicky Henderson has been very complimentary about his star six-year-old and has hinted he’s the best of his classy trio. I do realise, like Hurricane Fly, he is a risky proposition, but I’m sure this has just been caution against the wind on his trainer’s part. Hopefully this patience will pay off. I’m also going to suggest an each-way bet on the Willie Mullins grey, Thousand Stars, who won’t have the likes of Peddlers Cross and Oscar Whisky to deal with this year and may rattle the market leaders. He is also a possible runner in the World Hurdle, but Mullins has suggested he will swerve the beast that is Big Buck’s and come here – let’s hope he does.

Advice:
1pt win Spirit Son @ 9-2 (without Hurricane Fly)
& 1pt each-way Thousand Stars @ 20-1

Cheltenham Betting

Football

While the FA Cup may have lost some of its magic over recent years, the third round weekend remains one of the most romantic sets of fixtures in the football calendar.

The ties kick off on Friday night as Liverpool welcome Oldham and the Latics are 20/1 to register a shock win at Anfield. There’s a Fylde Coast derby on Saturday as Fleetwood Town welcome Blackpool with the non-league team available at 7/2. Crawley are just 6/4 to beat Championship Bristol City while Cheltenham are 22/1 to beat Spurs at White Hart Lane.

Sunday’s big match sees Manchester City play Manchester United and Roberto Mancini’s side are excellent value at 6/5 to win. Chelsea are 1/6 to beat Portsmouth while Sheffield Wednesday can beat West Ham at 15/8. Sunderland have been in good form since Martin O’Neill took over and can beat Peterborough on Sunday at evens.

FA Cup Matches

Football Betting



Golf

Just 25 days after Luke Donald claimed the 2011 Race to Dubai title, the long slog to be crowned Europe’s top golfer starts again this weekend.

There’s a strong local contingent at the Africa Open with reigning champion Louis Oosthuizen the 5/1 favourite to retain the title he won in 2011. Retief Goosen is an 11/1 chance with Thomas Aiken and George Coetzee available at 14/1.

The PGA Tour also gets underway this week with the Hyundai Tournament of Champions – an event restricted to PGA Tour winners from last year.

Nick Watney, Steve Stricker and Webb Simpson are the 8/1 favourites with Bubba Watson available at 16/1.

Golf Betting

Cricket

After an excellent series, the third Test between South Africa and Sri Lanka climaxes this weekend in Cape Town. The tourists secured an excellent victory in the second Test to level the series although are already up against it with the home side having racked up almost 350 runs on the first day.

Cricket Betting

Tennis

It only seems like a few days since the 2011 season ended at the ATP finals in London but most of the big names are back in action this week.

Roger Federer is the reigning Qatar Open champion and is looking to retain his title in Doha. Rafael Nadal, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gael Monfils are also in action in the Middle East.

Andy Murray’s preparations for the Australian Open begin in Queensland where the Scotsman is the favourite to win the Brisbane International tournament on his debut at the event. Gilles Simon, Alexandr Dolgopolov and Tommy Haas are Murray’s closest challengers in the Australian city.

The WTA tour is also in Brisbane this week and Serena Williams is the 2/1 favourite to win 2012’s opening event. Kim Clijsters is available at 11/4 with home hopeful Samantha Stosur a 11/2 chance.

Tennis Betting

Rugby Union

There’s a mouth watering tie to open this weekend’s Aviva Premiership fixtures. League leaders Harlequins travel to Franklin’s Gardens to face Northampton on Friday night and it promises to be a close game. It could go either way but backing the away side with a 6 point head start at 10/11 looks to be the call.

Leicester are improving week by week and are now up to fourth in the table. The Tigers host Wasps on Saturday and should win at a canter. Saracens should beat Bath on Sunday while London Irish can beat Sale by more than 6 points at 10/11.

Leinster remain top of the RaboDirect Pro12 after the festive matches although the leaders face a tricky trip to Cardiff Blues this Saturday. Ospreys are on a good run and can win at local rivals the Dragons while Glasgow are up to third in the table and travel to the Scarlets.

Munster can bounce back from their defeat to Ulster last time out with a comfortable home win over Treviso.

Rugby Betting

Horse Racing

Weather permitting, racing this Saturday comes from Newcastle, Sandown Park, Lingfield Park and Wincanton.

Racing Betting

Football

As ever, there’s a busy football programme over the Christmas weekend. A west London derby kicks off the Boxing Day action in the Premier League as Chelsea host Fulham with the visitors available at a whopping 9/1.

Manchester City are 1/2 to win at West Bromwich Albion while neighbours and title challengers Manchester United have a straightforward looking fixture at home to Wigan Athletic. Stoke City are good value at 10/11 to beat Aston Villa at the Britannia Stadium while I also fancy Sunderland to bet Everton at 7/5.

Swansea are excellent value at 6/5 to get the better of QPR on Tuesday while there’s a tempting price of 7/2 on Norwich to beat Tottenham at Carrow Road.

Premier League Matches

There’s also an attractive looking match between two famous old clubs on Tuesday with Sheffield United 8/11 to beat Notts County.
Wednesday sees the Old Firm derby with Celtic 11/10 to beat Rangers. The SPL leaders are 5/2 to extend their lead at the top of the table.

Celtic v Rangers

Football Betting

Cricket

While we may be settling down after our Christmas dinner, there are a couple of festive Test matches this weekend.

Australia have warned former captain Ricky Ponting that he will need to improve his scoring if he is to retain his place and the 36 year old gets his chance as his side take on India in the first Test at the MCG. The match starts on Christmas Day.

The second Test between South Africa and Sri Lanka kicks off in Durban on Boxing Day. South Africa won the first Test by a crushing innings and 81 runs and are 4/11 to go 2-0 up in the series.

Cricket Betting

Rugby Union

Domestic rugby returns over the Christmas weekend with some terrific matches in prospect.

The match of the weekend is on Tuesday as Harlequins take on Saracens. The Aviva Premiership leaders have won ten out of ten matches this season but may find it harder against the team in second place. Third play fourth on the same day as surprise package Exeter travel to London Irish.

Northampton should beat Bath on Christmas Eve while Sale will hope to beat rock bottom Newcastle on Boxing Day.

In the RaboDirect Pro12, leaders Leinster can consolidate their position at the top of the table with a win over Ulster on Boxing Day while Munster should beat struggling Connacht. There’s a Scottish derby as fourth place Glasgow travel to Edinburgh and a Welsh derby as Scarlets welcome second place Ospreys.

There are also a couple of fixtures on Christmas Eve as bottom club Aironi play Treviso while Cardiff Blues face the Newport-Gwent Dragons.

Rugby Union Betting

Horse Racing

The big race on Boxing Day is the King George VI Chase over three miles at Kempton Park. The legendary Kauto Star is bidding to win this race for a record fifth time although the 3/1 chance will have to beat last year’s winner and 11/8 favourite Long Run.
Master Minded is 5/1 while Captain Chris can be backed at 8/1.

Big Zeb is the 8/11 favourite to win the Paddy Power Dial-a-Bet Chase at Leopardstown for the third time in four years on Tuesday with Golden Silver and Noble Prince the best of the challengers.

Elsewhere there is racing on Boxing Day from Wetherby, Huntingdon, Ffos Las, Market Rasen, Fontwell, Towcester, Wincanton and Wolverhampton.

Racing Betting

Darts

The second round of the PDC World Darts Championship continues through Christmas.

After some early shocks – the elimination of former champion Raymond van Barneveld, seeds Mark Dudbridge and Jamie Caven and the well fancied Mark Webster there is plenty to play for.

Phil Taylor remains the 4/5 favourite to win his 14th world title with last year’s winner Adrian Lewis available at 6/1. James Wade is an 8/1 chance.

Darts Betting

The Ladbroke Hurdle is not one of the most prestigious races to win in the calendar year, but with a guaranteed prize fund of £150,000 it’s certainly a nice prize to take a pop at. There is decent prize money down as far as the fourth placed runner meaning all horses will be trying to win which certainly aids our intended punt. I’ve always said these are the best events to get involved in for those reasons.

Due to atrocious weather conditions this race has been called off for the past two years so let’s hope for third time lucky. Ascot is due to get some severe weather late Thursday night, but I don’t envisage any problems in the meeting not going ahead. The ground currently rides good to soft. A night’s rain may turn that to soft, however.

The 2010 and 2009 runnings didn’t go to post but previously, Nicky Henderson and the Pipe yard dominated – winning six of the last eight renewals with three each. David Pipe hasn’t declared any runner this year, but Nicky Henderson’s pair want serious consideration.

Other trends worth noting include the ages of past winners. In the last eight runnings it’s quite clear four-year-olds have a terrible record, not winning one. There are a number of fancied four-year-olds touted to go well, but if one was to win this trend will need to be bucked. Favourites have a poor record winning just one renewal in recent seasons, but fancied runners go well too. Two shock results have also been seen though, with 25/1 and 33/1 winners going in.

Paul Nicholls hasn’t won the Ladbroke as of yet, but holds sound claims this year with top-weight Brampour and fancied Supreme Novice Hurdle runner, Prospect Wells. The latter mentioned is currently your 7/2 favourite while Brampour is also prominent in the market at 9/1. Both have solid chances and shall be discussed shortly – I’m still weighing both up at the moment.

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Now that the norm of an intro has been covered, I’ve sat down to look at the race properly and it must be said, it’s a very competitive renewal and it’s not going to be easy to get the winner. There are plenty of good improving horses running and a number of old foes, again set to lock horns, but this time on different terms. Opening thoughts though do render one point; Prospect Wells offers no value at a price of 7/2 in such a competitive race. No doubting he is potentially a high-class horse, but he may well find it tougher than expected today. He has a good chance, but I think we’ll find value against him.

In a tough handicap I actually give twelve out of the seventeen runners a squeak – some have better prospects than others obviously. With the four-year-old trend discussed early quite strong I’m not keen on putting up one, but the ones that do catch my eye include Brampour, Marsh Warbler and Sailors Warn.

Theoretically Brampour is a handicap good thing. His run last weekend at Cheltenham saw him finish a good third behind Champion Hurdle second favourite, Grandouet, meaning he should be running from a nine lbs. higher mark. With Harry Derham claiming a further seven lbs, this means, technically, he’ll be sixteen lbs well-in and that is very hard to get away from!

Sailors Warn is much easier to get away given the fact he is not well-in at the weights. The soft ground will aid his cause, but I don’t think the great Tony McCoy can even work his magic here. Like Sailors Warn, Marsh Warbler will love the recent rain falling around Berkshire. Good enough to run in last year’s Supreme Novice Hurdle; the good ground would have destroyed any genuine hopes connections had of a good run. His recent comeback run, like Brampour, being against Grandouet, was encouraging. He was never going to beat the Henderson horse on a flat track like Haydock on decent ground, but ran a promising and gritty race. He’s another with a live chance especially with a capable seven lbs. claimer aiding his cause.

Via Galilei is a horse I’ve got great time for – he’s as genuine and tough as they come and has a stylish way of racing. The recent rain around won’t aid his cause however and he is now starting to creep up the handicap.
The winner for me will come from Brampour, Marsh Warbler, Prospect Wells, Gibb River, Desert Cry and Viva Colonia. Brampour is very hard to get away from given his handicap mark, but the ground and a recent run means I’m reluctantly passing him over. Prospect Wells has a solid chance, but is no price for me. He’s also running a third race in quickish time for me and is another who may be better on better ground.

This leaves me with Marsh Warbler, Gibb River, Desert Cry and Viva Colonia. The first named has already been discussed and has a live chance so we move on to the remaining three.

Gibb River was another considered good enough to run in last year’s Supreme, but didn’t run his race unfortunately. Before that he went unbeaten over hurdles and looked a nice type. His comeback run was very promising behind a good horse from a small yard meaning his latest effort may be under estimated. Nicky Henderson reports him to be a stuffy horse so he should come on for the run. Better ground would suit, but I think he’ll go on it.

Desert Cry put up a super performance last time out and won with more in hand than the winning margin suggests. He’s a horse who travels well and should be suited by Ascot and I can see him running well. Similar comments can be applied to Viva Colonia who ran an eye-catching race behind Brampour in the Greatwood Hurdle. He takes on his old foe again, but on much better terms and can go well.

I’m torn between a number of horses in this race and it’s not a nice feeling because picking the wrong one would be heart-breaking. In the end I’ve gone with class in the hope it will see us through.

Advice:
1pt each-way Gibb River @ 8/1 and
1pt each-way Marsh Warbler @ 12/1

Horse Racing Betting

Football

Manchester City were finally beaten in the Premier League on Monday and Roberto Mancini’s side face another tricky game on Sunday afternoon. They host Arsenal who are on a good run of form although at home City should have enough. The 9/2 on Arsenal will tempt many, though.

Man City v Arsenal

Manchester United are a skinny 1/2 to beat QPR at Loftus Road although I wouldn’t back United at those odds considering they might struggle to get a team out. Darren Fletcher has joined an increasingly long absentee list this week and the 6/1 available on the home side looks way too long.

QPR v Man United

Liverpool are good value at 21/20 to see off Aston Villa on Sunday while I also fancy Stoke to beat struggling Wolves on Saturday at 9/5. Chelsea should beat Wigan at the DW Stadium although the 2/5 doesn’t represent much value.

Premier League Matches

There’s a South coast derby in the Championship on Sunday with Southampton 11/10 to win at Portsmouth. I fancy Ipswich to beat Derby at 11/10 while the league’s form team, Barnsley, are a huge price at 5/1 to win at West Ham.

Football Betting

Golf

While the Race to Dubai may be over, Luke Donald is in action again this weekend. Having become the first golfer to top the money lists in both the USA and Europe in the same season, Donald is the 4/1 favourite to win the JBWere Australian Masters.
Geoff Ogilvy leads the home challenge and can be backed at 9/1 while Ian Poulter is 14/1 and Italian wonderkid Matteo Manassero can be backed at 25/1.

There’s also a strong field at the Thailand Gold Championships this weekend. Lee Westwood is the 9/2 favourite from the in-form Sergio Garcia and Masters champion Charl Schwartzl.

Golf Betting

Cricket

After New Zealand’s thrilling seven run win over Australia in the second Test last weekend there are a couple of Tests to look forward to this weekend.

South Africa are 4/9 to beat Sri Lanka at Centurion while Pakistan are 1/6 to see off Bangladesh in Dhaka. If you fancy the home side to cause an upset you can back them at a tempting 16/1.

Cricket Betting

Rugby Union

The Heineken Cup continues this weekend with several clubs in dire need of a good result.

The Ospreys have reached the knockout stages in the last three years but currently stand second in Pool 5. However, the Welsh team can take control of their pool if they can beat Saracens on Friday night. I fancy the Ospreys to overcome the 3 point handicap and win at 20/11.

Aviva Premiership leaders Harlequins’ unbeaten run came to an end last week and it promises to be another tough match as they travel to 2010 champions Toulouse. Leicester Tigers also desperately need a win over my tournament tip Clermont Auvergne at Welford Road.

The top two meet in Pool B and Gavin Henson could make his Cardiff Blues debut as they travel to Edinburgh. Munster can all but seal their quarter final berth with a won over the Scarlets while I expect Leinster to comfortably see off Bath.

Rugby Union Betting

Horse Racing

The highlight of Saturday’s racing comes from Ascot with the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle. There’s only one winner according to the bookies who have the magnificent Big Buck’s as the 2/7 favourite to make it a hat-trick of wins in this race. Dynaste is available at 6/1 with Celestial Halo a 10/1 chance.

Prospect Wells is the 7/1 ante-post for the Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle from Brampour and Gibb River.

Elsewhere there is racing on Saturday from Haydock Park, Lingfield Park and Newcastle.

Racing Betting

In winning the December Gold Cup for the second year running in 2010 Poquelin became the only horse to win the now Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup twice. Unfortunately, Poquelin won’t be back to make it three on the bounce for Paul Nicholls and race sponsor and owner, Andy Stewart. Stewart will instead rely on the classy Ghizao to try and recoup his race sponsorship.

It’s hard to believe the Open Meeting here at Cheltenham is already four weeks behind us – the season is flying – probably due to the good competitive racing we have been treated to since the start of the new jumping term. This race will be no different, being a high class competitive handicap. Hopefully we can find the winner.

If we do, the selection will join past victors in this race like the classy pair of Fondmort and the ill-fated Exotic Dancer. Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson are two trainers that target this race – both winning it twice in the last decade. Other leading stables to have tasted recent victories include Philip Hobbs, Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe and Irish based-handler, Noel Meade.

In terms of the trends aiding us in finding the winner, there are a number of reoccurring themes. One; six and seven-year-olds have held sway recently with the latter mentioned just edging it. One eight-year-old has won in eight runnings. Two; only one favourite has tasted success in the last eight years, but horses to the fore in the betting have a good record. And finally three; previous course form is intangible and highly recommended with all eight of the last eight winners having won or been placed on the course.

This year’s renewal looks as good a one as I’ve recently seen. It will be tough finding the winner, but the competitive nature means some value should be lurking in there.

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Let’s start with impressive Paddy Power winner, Great Endeavour. The David Pipe trained grey has been an absolute star for connections in recent seasons – wins at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival and the 2011 Open Meeting meaning he owes connections nothing. His Paddy Power win was as impressive a win you’ll see in a competitive handicap. Another promising run followed in the Hennessy Gold Cup when running a gallant fourth where the trip probably proved the limitations on his stamina. The drop in trip and return to Cheltenham will be hugely in his favour, but his recent good form means his handicap mark has suffered. He’ll be in the mix, but doesn’t look the winner to me.

Others to the top of the handicap that will go well include Woolcombe Folly, Medermit and Ghizao. Medermit looks like he is going to be a ‘nearly horse’. After threatening to be one of last season’s top novice chasers his form tapered off at the end of the campaign. Alan King blamed himself for the Arkle run where Medermit looked like he wanted a step up in trip. He got that at Aintree, but again was duly put in his place. More worryingly, this season has seen jumping errors creep into his game – a department he was solid in last year. The step up in trip should suit, but he just doesn’t look the same horse to me. Furthermore, softer ground would be ideal. Therefore, he’s passed over.

Ghizao is a horse I’ve always had a soft spot for, for some reason - probably because I feel he is capable of better. Like Medermit, a number of issues worry me. One; his jumping and two; the quick ground expected at Prestbury Park. One thing I’m sure of though is he is well handicapped and if getting his act together is capable of running a big race. His jumping may well improve over this sort of trip with a slower gallop giving him time to settle into a nice rhythm. The ground however is a worry and to be honest, the trip may be too. This will be as far as he has ever gone and the new course at Cheltenham is not exactly the best place to try a trip for the first time.

This leaves me with Quantitativeeasing, Divers, Sunnyhillboy and the race value Calgary Bay. As with all races the ground is a critical variable and will be no different here. While writing this piece, reports have filtered through of a ‘serious rainstorm’ at Cheltenham. While none of the above horses mentioned need rattling quick ground, rain will compromise the chances of Woolcombe Folly, Divers and Sunnyhillboy. Quantitativeeasing will appreciate a bit of cut underfoot so the current rain will be music to connections ears.
Personally I think Tony McCoy has made the wrong decision in riding Sunnyhillboy over Quantitativeeasing. Only time will tell if that statement is correct, but Sunnyhillboy doesn’t jump well enough for me. Like Ghizao I’m sure he’s ahead of the handicapper, but his jumping is a concern. The son of Old Vic is not the biggest of horses which doesn’t aid his jumping and in truth is probably the main reason for the problem. However, if this horses jumps soundly he’ll go very very close!

Quantitativeeasing was second to Great Endeavour in the Paddy Power and to be honest was comprehensively beaten by the Pipe horse. That being said I think there are a number of reasons he can turn around the form. One; he has a significant weight-pull, two; the new course at Cheltenham should suit him better than the old one in that it’s more of a stamina test. Three; the jockey. With no disrespect to Andrew Tinkler, big race jockey Barry Geraghty is a favourite of mine and he may well eek out a little more improvement. I’m confident he can confirm his previous run with Divers who will be without usual jockey Graham Lee who sadly took a heavy fall today.

Quantitativeeasing will be the selection, but the 25-1 bout Calgary Bay is mad and is probably due to his trainer, Henrietta Knight. Now I’m not a massive fan of Knight, but she’s not exactly a poor trainer. Her record speaks for itself although she’s not as fashionable as she once was. Calgary Bay was a good fourth in this last year and on that run his form ties him in with Sunnyhillboy, one of this races fancied runners. He was beaten just half-a-length in that run by J.P McManus’ gelding giving him seven lbs. He is now only giving him three lbs so theoretically he should reverse the form. Calgary Bay is three-and-a-half times Sunnyhillboy’s price and so has to be backed on a value basis. However, I do think, on merits, this horse has a solid each-way shout.

Advice: 1pt each-way Quantitativeeasing @ 6-1 & Calgary Bay @ 25-1.