In winning the December Gold Cup for the second year running in 2010 Poquelin became the only horse to win the now Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup twice. Unfortunately, Poquelin won’t be back to make it three on the bounce for Paul Nicholls and race sponsor and owner, Andy Stewart. Stewart will instead rely on the classy Ghizao to try and recoup his race sponsorship.

It’s hard to believe the Open Meeting here at Cheltenham is already four weeks behind us – the season is flying – probably due to the good competitive racing we have been treated to since the start of the new jumping term. This race will be no different, being a high class competitive handicap. Hopefully we can find the winner.

If we do, the selection will join past victors in this race like the classy pair of Fondmort and the ill-fated Exotic Dancer. Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson are two trainers that target this race – both winning it twice in the last decade. Other leading stables to have tasted recent victories include Philip Hobbs, Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe and Irish based-handler, Noel Meade.

In terms of the trends aiding us in finding the winner, there are a number of reoccurring themes. One; six and seven-year-olds have held sway recently with the latter mentioned just edging it. One eight-year-old has won in eight runnings. Two; only one favourite has tasted success in the last eight years, but horses to the fore in the betting have a good record. And finally three; previous course form is intangible and highly recommended with all eight of the last eight winners having won or been placed on the course.

This year’s renewal looks as good a one as I’ve recently seen. It will be tough finding the winner, but the competitive nature means some value should be lurking in there.

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Let’s start with impressive Paddy Power winner, Great Endeavour. The David Pipe trained grey has been an absolute star for connections in recent seasons – wins at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival and the 2011 Open Meeting meaning he owes connections nothing. His Paddy Power win was as impressive a win you’ll see in a competitive handicap. Another promising run followed in the Hennessy Gold Cup when running a gallant fourth where the trip probably proved the limitations on his stamina. The drop in trip and return to Cheltenham will be hugely in his favour, but his recent good form means his handicap mark has suffered. He’ll be in the mix, but doesn’t look the winner to me.

Others to the top of the handicap that will go well include Woolcombe Folly, Medermit and Ghizao. Medermit looks like he is going to be a ‘nearly horse’. After threatening to be one of last season’s top novice chasers his form tapered off at the end of the campaign. Alan King blamed himself for the Arkle run where Medermit looked like he wanted a step up in trip. He got that at Aintree, but again was duly put in his place. More worryingly, this season has seen jumping errors creep into his game – a department he was solid in last year. The step up in trip should suit, but he just doesn’t look the same horse to me. Furthermore, softer ground would be ideal. Therefore, he’s passed over.

Ghizao is a horse I’ve always had a soft spot for, for some reason - probably because I feel he is capable of better. Like Medermit, a number of issues worry me. One; his jumping and two; the quick ground expected at Prestbury Park. One thing I’m sure of though is he is well handicapped and if getting his act together is capable of running a big race. His jumping may well improve over this sort of trip with a slower gallop giving him time to settle into a nice rhythm. The ground however is a worry and to be honest, the trip may be too. This will be as far as he has ever gone and the new course at Cheltenham is not exactly the best place to try a trip for the first time.

This leaves me with Quantitativeeasing, Divers, Sunnyhillboy and the race value Calgary Bay. As with all races the ground is a critical variable and will be no different here. While writing this piece, reports have filtered through of a ‘serious rainstorm’ at Cheltenham. While none of the above horses mentioned need rattling quick ground, rain will compromise the chances of Woolcombe Folly, Divers and Sunnyhillboy. Quantitativeeasing will appreciate a bit of cut underfoot so the current rain will be music to connections ears.
Personally I think Tony McCoy has made the wrong decision in riding Sunnyhillboy over Quantitativeeasing. Only time will tell if that statement is correct, but Sunnyhillboy doesn’t jump well enough for me. Like Ghizao I’m sure he’s ahead of the handicapper, but his jumping is a concern. The son of Old Vic is not the biggest of horses which doesn’t aid his jumping and in truth is probably the main reason for the problem. However, if this horses jumps soundly he’ll go very very close!

Quantitativeeasing was second to Great Endeavour in the Paddy Power and to be honest was comprehensively beaten by the Pipe horse. That being said I think there are a number of reasons he can turn around the form. One; he has a significant weight-pull, two; the new course at Cheltenham should suit him better than the old one in that it’s more of a stamina test. Three; the jockey. With no disrespect to Andrew Tinkler, big race jockey Barry Geraghty is a favourite of mine and he may well eek out a little more improvement. I’m confident he can confirm his previous run with Divers who will be without usual jockey Graham Lee who sadly took a heavy fall today.

Quantitativeeasing will be the selection, but the 25-1 bout Calgary Bay is mad and is probably due to his trainer, Henrietta Knight. Now I’m not a massive fan of Knight, but she’s not exactly a poor trainer. Her record speaks for itself although she’s not as fashionable as she once was. Calgary Bay was a good fourth in this last year and on that run his form ties him in with Sunnyhillboy, one of this races fancied runners. He was beaten just half-a-length in that run by J.P McManus’ gelding giving him seven lbs. He is now only giving him three lbs so theoretically he should reverse the form. Calgary Bay is three-and-a-half times Sunnyhillboy’s price and so has to be backed on a value basis. However, I do think, on merits, this horse has a solid each-way shout.

Advice: 1pt each-way Quantitativeeasing @ 6-1 & Calgary Bay @ 25-1.

The Sportingbet Tingle Creek is the highlight of the weekend’s racing. This race has produced some greats in its time with the likes of Moscow Flyer and Master Minded all triumphing in the Sandown showpiece. Irish hopes lay with the Henry De Bromhead trained Sizing Europe, the 2010 Arkle and 2011 Queen Mother Champion Chase winner.

Not a race to try and get clever with as class horses have continually come to the fore over the last decade in this race. The who’s who of two-mile chasers have won the Tingle Creek adding plenty of bulk to the previous statement.

The ones to concentrate on are Kauto Stone, Sizing Europe and Wishful Thinking. Tataniano would certainly have been in the mix, but sad news has just filtered through – he’s out for the season.

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Kauto Stone will probably live in the shadow of his big brother for the rest of his career, but he is no back number. Although he’ll hardly scale the heights of his brother he will certainly pay his own way. He made his debut for Paul Nicholls last time out at Down Royal, winning the Ladbrokes.com Chase. It was a very impressive display in this part of Europe, on debut. He travelled beautifully, looked professional and beat a decent animal convincingly. A very good performance for a young horse, but I have one major issue, his jumping. This is going to sound very counterintuitive, my next statement. He jumped perfectly round Down Royal this day - quick, economically and safe. My trouble with this is his jumping technique. While he bascules lovely he is very low at his fences. The stiff Railway jumps at Sandown will test his jumping properly – the Down Royal fences are not so taxing.

This leaves me with the big two, Sizing Europe and Wishful Thinking. Strictly on ratings Sizing Europe should come out on top, but that’s a dangerous way to weigh-up this race.

Wishful Thinking is a horse I like, so much so I stuck him into my season’s ten-to-follow. He is high class, jumps well, travels well and is as tough as teak. He managed to hit the frame at all three major national hunt festivals, Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown – winning at the latter two meetings. At Cheltenham, he was second to the high-class Noble Prince, up in Liverpool he slammed Medermit and in Ireland he gave the subsequent Galway Plate winner, Blazing Tempo, two stone. He is a very good horse, but over two-miles he looks vulnerable even with his bold front running style. Two miles is a specialist trip and for this reason I’m sticking up Sizing Europe.

Sizing Europe is a horse I’ve never warmed to for some reason – I don’t know why because he is obviously high-class. He’s an Arkle winner and a Queen Mother Champion Chase winner. As well as those two festival wins he is the winner of six other graded races including a Grade One over hurdles. He is a very straight forward horse who’s jumping is exemplary – a characteristic that will be needed round Sandown Park. Fitness won’t be an issue and Henry De Bromhead, midweek, reported all his horses travelled over well. Quite simply he is the class horse and I can’t see anything beating him bar mishaps.

Advice:
2pts win Sizing Europe @ 6/4

Tingle Creek Betting

Past winners include greats like Mill House, Arkle, One Man, State Of Play and Denman – the latter pair mentioned still racing to a high level today. No Denman this year, which will please many entered. Had the Gold Cup winner and two times Hennessy victor lined-up, many would have been out of the handicap. The top weight honour this time goes to another Nicholls inmate, Neptune Colognes.

With big handicaps like this it often pays to take heed of the trends available. Ones to note for this year’s renewal include following horses that ran in last season’s RSA Chase at Cheltenham, did well over hurdles and to the fore in the betting. It also pays to side with young and improving horses, namely six and seven-year-olds.

Your two market leaders include Aiteenthirtythree and Great Endeavour, who is looking to win another big handicap after claiming the Paddy Gold Cup last time out. Those to the fore in the market have good records in this race, but serious questions loom over this pair. For me, the trip will stretch Great Endeavour and the big field may just find out the Nicholls runner.

Those just behind them in the market that do catch my eye include Wymott and Wayward Prince. Both ran in last year’s RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival where Wymott was pulled-up and Wayward Prince ran well to be third. Wymott was found to be injured post-race, a feasible excuse for his poor run. Wayward Prince was under pressure early, but ran on nicely to finish third. Slightly slower ground at Newbury should be perfect for him.

Two that take my eye at nice each-way prices include Beshabar and Sarando. The giant Beshabar won last year’s Scottish Grand National after finishing second in the National Hunt Chase behind Chicago Grey. He is one who won’t be stopping, but something classier may just have a smarter turn of foot. Sarando was a shock second at the Aintree Festival when just being touched off by the classy Quito De La Roque. Many felt that was a fluke performance, but he followed up in nice style at Carlisle last time out. This is a step-up, but connections are quietly confident of a good run.

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Two left field horses to note are Muirhead, the Irish raider and Carruthers, the Cheltenham Gold Cup fourth in 2010. Of the two, preference is just for Carruthers who may just be sneaking under the radar coming in here.
With Wymott probably wanting to get his toe in a bit more and not having sufficient experience in big fields, I can pass him over. Stepped in to this type of company, I think Sarando may just find a few too good. Beshabar may just get taped for toe over this trip and given his size should come on for the run. I don’t think connections would want to win a big handicap like this with their Grand National aspirations either.

This leaves me with two, at opposite ends of the market. At the prices, I think I’ll be playing both.

Wayward Prince comes from the inform Ian Williams yard who are currently operating at an eighteen percent strike rate. Last year’s third in the RSA comes into the race as a second season chaser – fitting the trends profile nicely. His age is another positive to take from trend spotting.

More importantly however, he is a very good horse with the necessary attributes to win a Hennessy. This Grade One winning hurdler jumps well, stays nicely and has a touch of class. He is still lightly-raced and enjoys decent ground. Dougie Costello is a jockey I like and no man deserves a big race win than Ian Williams. Wayward Prince ticks plenty boxes and should go nicely.

At bigger prices I like Carruthers. Hard to believe he is just eight-years-old as he seems to have been around for an age. I was impressed with his comeback run at Cheltenham in a good staying event where he looked really enthusiastic about his job. He jumped beautifully throughout and should find it easier to make the running around Newbury. Furthermore, he was sixth in this race last year off a ten lbs. higher mark. This year’s renewal is a little weaker than last year’s. He has a nice record in second races after a break too. He could be the forgotten horse and is a nice price. Softer ground would be ideal however.

Advice:
1pt win Wayward Prince @ 7/1 and 1pt each-way Carruthers @ 14/1

Racing Betting

Five look set to go to post for the 2011 renewal of the Fighting Fifth Hurdle, a Grade One event. Run over two miles at Newcastle, it’s the courses flagship race and usually attracts horses with Champion Hurdle aspirations. Past winners include the controversial Harchibald, former Supreme Hurdle winner, Go Native and last year’s Champion Hurdle runner-up Peddlers Cross.

The trends would suggest to follow a young, up-and-coming horse. Over the last decade five and six-year-olds hold sway, with the former mentioned claiming six victories. Unfortunately, there is only one five-year-old running and he is set to go off the outsider of the field, and in truth has no realistic chance. The remaining four runners are all seven so an age trend is not an angle we can follow to help with our selection.

One trend we can trust though is the starting price development over the decade. There have been two shock winners in this race over the last ten years, but in general, short-priced, fancied runners go well. With that to help the three to concentrate on are Binocular, Overturn and Celestial Halo, but you don’t need to be a racing guru to make that call!

This year’s renewal will prove tough to call with only five lbs. separating the above mentioned in the handicap. Binocular is the highest rated animal and just comes out on top at the weights. He is rated one lbs. clear of Overturn and five clear of Celestial Halo.

Overturn is being turned out quickly after last week’s fortunate Ascot Hurdle victory. Although he was in the middle of running a solid race, Oscar Whisky looked to just about have his measure before the Henderson horse departed at the last. He only has one lbs. to find with Binocular on ratings and has already had a run – so should strip fitter than most. However, he has always been brushed aside at the top level and it may be the same on Saturday. His style of racing means he rarely has an easy race and his run seven days ago may just have left its mark. Newcastle in softish ground will not play to his strengths either as well as trying to turn around last year’s Christmas Hurdle beating by Binocular.

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Binocular is still only seven, but appears to have been around for a decade. The ex-Champion Hurdle winner is certainly the best horse in the race, but he has very much been hit-and-miss since his Cheltenham Festival win in 2010. His class and slick, quick jumping will see him go close in the bigger races later in the season, but coming off a lengthy break leaves him vulnerable. We have to go back nearly two years to the day when he last won after a sixty day break – and that given day, he was a 1/9 shot. On the plus side connections report him to be in good health – “leaner and meaner than ever” the quote read. I just see him needing to pull out all the stops to win on Saturday and at 5/6, I’m willing to take him on.

This leaves me with Celestial Halo who cannot be a confident pick. The main reason for the selection is based on value. That being said, he is no back number and has a willing attitude. Some will say this is a silly choice considering most times he has faced Binocular, he has duly been put in his place – the score standing at three one. When the pair have met though, it has always been on Binoculars’ ‘terms’, i.e. with Binocular already having a run. If he is ever going to beat the Henderson horse, it will be today. His recent win, which like Overturn, was fortunate with another Henderson inmate, Grandouet, crashing out at the second last when holding every chance. That day he was giving Grandouet ten lbs, which is a significant amount of weight and looked set to go toe-to-toe with him until the Seven Barrows horse departed. Grandouet has since gone on to hack-up and now holds a rating of 164, a lbs. less than Binocular and the same as Overturn. Theoretically, this gives Celestial Halo every chance and with Paul Nicholls still in good form, I’m hoping the selection can do the business.

With questions looming on Overturns ability to back-up and his style of racing leaving him a sitting duck, I’m willing to take him on. Binocular will prove to be the best of these this season, but is exposed first time out. With Celestial Halo already having a good run under his belt I think Saturday just may be his day. Paul Nicholls and the excellent Daryl Jacob team-up and can hopefully fire in Celestial Halo.

Advice:
1pt win Celestial Halo @ 10/3

Racing Betting

3.05 – Haydock (Grade One)

We have a top class renewal for this year’s Betfair Chase. Two Cheltenham Gold Cup winners, dual King George VI heroes, a Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup victor and a whole host of other top races won among the six strong field.

Kauto Star will bid for an astonishing fourth win in this race after taking the 2006, 2007 and 2009 renewals. The double Gold Cup winner will have to be at the top of his game to etch his name back on to the Betfair Chase trophy. The young pretenders, Long Run, Diamond Harry, Time For Rupert and Weird Al will all be snapping at his hooves.

Unsurprisingly, with Kauto winning this race on numerous occasions, the average price of the winner is quite low – a stat further hardened by another short price winner, Imperial Commander.

Long Run looks set to go off a short-priced favourite. Last year’s King George and Gold Cup winner has looked a high-class recruit to these shores and at the tender age of six has achieved quite a lot. His jumping has often come under the watchful eye of leading experts, but in fairness to the horse, he has improved in that department. A bigger concern may be that this will be his first start since winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup. He was beaten in a handicap on reappearance last year, but jumped with no fluency over an inadequate trip. Better can be expected this year, but 5/6 is too short of a price to get involved with.

Take Long Run out of this race and it is wide open with Kauto Star, Diamond Harry, Time For Rupert and Weird Al all seeming to hold similar chances.

Kauto Star has been one of the greatest steeplechasers of the modern era, if not the greatest, but he is on the brink of turning twelve – a veteran age for the equine. He was one of the greats, but is sadly in decline. Not a sharp decline however, so a big run can be expected, but you would fancy one of the younger brigade to have the legs of him in a finish. Let’s hope he comes back safe and sound.
These young pretenders to Kauto and to the crown of Long Run include Diamond Harry, Time For Rupert and Weird Al.

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Diamond Harry is obviously another high-class horse. The winner of last year’s Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup, he disappointed after when pulling-up in the Gold Cup. He makes his belated debut after missing his first intended engagement, the Charlie Hall Chase. He is a class horse, but I still have reservations about Nick Williams’ stable star. He’s coming back from injury, faces a lengthy lay-off to overcome and may well have preferred softer ground. His record says he is very good when fresh, but at the prices, one or two more look better options. The flat track will suit too.

Time For Rupert was upset in the Charlie Hall by Weird Al and the pair look set to clash again. Weird Al was given a super ride by Timmy Murphy that day holding his mount up off a strong end to end gallop. Time For Rupert helped set that pace and was probably made too much use of by William Kennedy. The Paul Webber horse still ran very well and jumped nicely throughout, but was just picked up close home by Donald McCain’s Weird Al.

Reports that day suggested Time For Rupert would come on for the run so a better performance can be expected. However, similar comments apply to Weird Al who should also come on for the run. There won’t be a whole lot between them, but on a flat track like Haydock, it will probably suit Timmy Murphy’s mount better who has “plenty gears”. Returning to a left-handed course is another positive. Weird Al also meets the above rival on three lbs. better terms which is another plus. He has plenty going for him.

Take Long Run out of this event and it is a wide open race. He is the class animal and I expect him to win, but at odds-on I can’t back him. Kauto Star returns in a strong race. Time is not on his side so let’s hope he comes back safely. Diamond Harry is a very good horse, but there is something not quite right about him, for me. There shouldn’t be a whole pile between Time For Rupert and Weird Al again. On three lbs. better terms, on a flat track I feel Weird Al can up-hold the form.
It’s going to be a cracking race.

Advice:
1pt win Weird Al @ 13/2 & 2pt win W/O Long Run

Betfair Chase Betting

Horse Racing Betting

Football

The Premier League returns this weekend with a couple of interesting matches that pit promoted sides against the title hopefuls.
Norwich City have acquitted themselves well since their return to the top flight and Paul Lambert’s side welcome Arsenal in Saturday’s early kick-off. Arsene Wenger’s team are on a good run of form although many will be tempted by the Canaries at 4/1.

Norwich v Arsenal

Swansea also look comfortable amongst the Premier League big boys and they welcome Manchester United to the Liberty Stadium. Again, the 13/2 available on the home side looks tempting against a United side who have looked ragged of late.

Swansea v Man United

Manchester City are 1/3 to end Newcastle United’s unbeaten start to the season while Chelsea are excellent value at 4/5 to see off Liverpool at Stamford Bridge on Sunday.

Man City v Newcastle

Chelsea v Liverpool

Premier League Matches

There’s a great looking match in La Liga on Saturday evening and Valencia should be backed at 11/2 to beat Real Madrid at the Mestalla. If Mourinho’s men do lose this game, we’ll refund all losing first/last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast singles!

Valencia v Real Madrid

Football Betting

Tennis

The season ending ATP World Tour Finals heads to London again this weekend as the top eight players in man’s tennis go head to head for the final prize of the year.

The in-form Roger Federer is the man to beat this year with the former world number one having won five of the last eight World Tour finals. The Swiss player opens his campaign against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on Sunday and is available at 7/4 to win the tournament. Last year’s runner-up Rafael Nadal plays Mardy Fish in Sunday’s second match.

Novak Djokovic’s season isn’t ending as strongly as it began, but the 2008 winner looks good value at 4/1 considering his group includes Andy Murray, Thomas Berdych and David Ferrer.

Tennis Betting

Golf

The European Tour is in South Africa this week for the Alfred Dunhill Championship.

Pablo Martin is looking to join an elite group of players who have won a European Tour event in three consecutive years and the Spaniard is 28/1 to retain the trophy he won in 2009 and 2010. Thomas Aiken is the 12/1 favourite at Leopard’s Creek.

The Presidents Cup sees the best golfers from the USA and the Rest of the World (minus Europe) go head to head in a Ryder Cup format. Two strong teams will be in Melbourne this weekend and the two sides can’t be separated in the betting.

The US team boasts nine of the world’s top 20 golfers including Steve Stricker, Dustin Johnson, the in-form Webb Simpson and Phil Mickelson and so I’d be tempted to back the ‘away’ team at 10/11.

Golf Betting

Cricket

It’s not very often we get to snigger at the exploits of Australia in Test cricket, but their second innings total of 47 against South Africa in their eight wicket defeat would have raised a smile amongst many international cricket fans.

The fact that John Daly scored more on one hole of the Australian Open golf than any Australian batsman managed in the second innings tells its own story, and Michael Clarke’s side have the chance to make amends in the second Test which concludes this weekend.

South Africa v Australia

Elsewhere, it’s 1-1 in the one day series between Pakistan and Sri Lanka heading into two further internationals on Friday and Sunday.

Cricket Betting

Rugby League

England’s excellent 28-6 win over world champions New Zealand last weekend means that they will face the mighty Australia in this Saturday’s Four Nations final.

Australia won the fixture between the two sides by 16 points a fortnight ago, but England should be closer this time after some encouraging performances. It promises to be a great match at Elland Road and I’d back the home side with a 12 point start at 10/11.

England v Australia

Rugby League Betting

Rugby Union

After an intriguing first set of fixtures, the 17th Heineken Cup continues this weekend.

Jonathan Sexton’s last minute penalty rescued a draw for Leinster at Montpellier last weekend and the reigning champions should kick-start their campaign with a win over Glasgow. However, I fancy the Scottish side on the handicaps with a 17 point start at 10/11.

Leinster v Glasgow

Munster travel to Castres while Ulster have a tricky away tie at Welford Road as they face Leicester Tigers.
I fancy Biarritz to overcome their three point handicap to beat Saracens while the Ospreys can win by more than nine points in Treviso at 10/11. Northampton should prove too strong for the Scarlets while the Cardiff Blues can make it two wins out of two with victory over London Irish on Friday night.

Heineken Cup Matches

Rugby Union Betting

Horse Racing

The highlight of Saturday’s racing comes from Haydock Park where there are some well-known runners in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase over three miles. Long Run is the clear 5/6 favourite while 2006, 2007 and 2009 winner Kauto Star is available at 7/1.

Ascot hosts the Coral Hurdle on Saturday and the Nicky Henderson trained six year old Oscar Whisky is the 6/4 favourite. Paul Nicholls’ 2008 Triumph Hurdle winner Celestial Halo is available at 5/1.

Elsewhere there is racing on Saturday from Huntingdon, Lingfield Park and Wolverhampton.

Racing Betting

Football

The Premier League takes a break this weekend as eight nations fight for four berths at next season’s Euro 2012 Championships.
Ireland are 13/10 to win in Estonia on Friday evening, although the value there lies with a talented home side at 11/5.

Estonia v Ireland

Turkey can beat Croatia at 13/10 while Bosnia can nick a first leg win against Portugal at 21/10. Czech Republic host Montenegro in the final play-off tie.

Euro 2012 Playoffs

England welcome the world and European champions Spain to Wembley on Saturday for a friendly and, having named a strong squad, there will be plenty of money on the visitors at 5/6.

England v Spain

Wales can continue their recent run of good results with a win over Norway.

International Matches

The FA Cup reaches the first round stage this weekend with plenty of non-league sides looking to advance. Nantwich Town are 11/1 to win at the MK Dons while Maidenhead United are 10/3 to see off Aldershot.

AFC Wimbledon can cause a shock by beating Scunthorpe at 9/5 while Oxford United are good value at 9/2 to beat Sheffield United.

FA Cup Matches

Football Betting

Tennis

It’s the last regular season event of the ATP tour this week ahead of the Tour Finals later this month. There’s a very strong field in France for the BNP Paribas Masters and with three spots still up for grabs at the lucrative end of season event it promises to be a great week of tennis.

Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and last week’s Swiss Indoors champion Roger Federer head the betting but much of the focus will be on the seven players with a chance to make the Tour finals in London.

Tomas Berdych, Mardy Fish and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will take the three places if they all qualify for the quarter finals while complicated permutations could also see Janko Tipsarevic, Nicolas Almagro, Gael Monfils and Gilles Simon also qualify.

Tennis Betting

Golf

The European Tour is in Singapore this week for a co-sanctioned event between the European Tour and Asian Tour. The Singapore Open takes place over two courses - the Serapong and Tanjong - at the Sentosa Golf Club and after his excellent third place showing in Shanghai last week, Graeme McDowell is the 16/1 favourite.

Phil Mickelson is good value at 18/1 as is Simon Dyson at 28/1 while Ernie Els has twice been a runner-up at Sentosa and is available at 33/1.
Tiger Woods continues to try and get his career back on track down under this weekend and is 10/1 second favourite for the Australian Open. In-form Adam Scott is the man to beat at 8/1 while Dustin Johnson is available at 16/1.

Golf Betting

Cricket

After Pakistan sealed their Test series win over Sri Lanka last weekend, the two teams meet on Friday in Dubai in the first of their one day international series.

The weekend also sees the conclusion of the first Test between South Africa and Australia in Cape Town.

Cricket Betting

Rugby League

England’s four tries were still not enough to beat the mighty Australians last weekend but the home side can end their Four Nations campaign with a win over the reigning World Champions this weekend. They play New Zealand and I like England’s chances at 5/6 with a four point start.

England v New Zealand

The other match sees Australia take on Wales. Wales failed to score a point as they lost to New Zealand last weekend and this could be a heavy defeat. Back Australia to win by over 50 points sat 10/11.

Wales v Australia

Rugby League Betting

Rugby Union

The 17th Heineken Cup kicks off this weekend with some intriguing fixtures to look forward to.

Reigning champions Leinster start their defence in Montpellier while last season’s beaten finalists Northampton face a tricky start as they travel to Munster – a team that have only lost two home matches in European competition.

I fancy Leicester Tigers to overcome the 14 point handicap to win at Aironi at 10/11 while 9/2 tournament favourites Toulouse should have no problem winning their home tie against Gloucester.

Arguably the match of the weekend is on Saturday as two of the most consistent teams over recent years meet. The Ospreys have reached the quarter final stage in three consecutive seasons and play host to Biarritz, the 2010 runners-up. Biarritz can be backed at 10/11 with a six point start.

Heineken Cup Matches and Previews

Rugby Betting

Horse Racing

It’s Paddy Power Gold Cup day at Cheltenham on Saturday – the day when the jumps racing season gets into top gear. Mon Parrain has been backed in to the 4/1 favourite with Wishfull Thinking and Noble Prince the next two in the betting.

The Greatwood Hurdle sees the up and coming stars of the hurdling world take centre stage on Sunday and there’s been plenty of money for Moon Dice in the run-up to the race.

Elsewhere there is racing on Saturday from Wetherby, Lingfield Park, Uttoxeter and Wolverhampton.

Racing Betting

Unfortunately the final Group One of the British season is upon us, the Racing Post Trophy.

Run over one mile at Doncaster, it’s usually a strong pointer to the following season in terms of the Classics – especially the Epsom Derby. Three of the last ten winners of this race have gone on to win the Derby - High Chaparral, Motivator and Authorized. Punters feel this year’s favourite, Camelot, has the class and stamina to go on and emulate the aforementioned. Since the betting opened at the start of the week for this year’s renewal, all punters have wanted is Camelot - both for this race and the Derby. The son of Montjeu is obviously showing plenty at home, but he will have to step up on his previous effort.

Camelot, a son of middle distance great Montjeu, has just had the one racetrack start, way back in mid-July. In the end he won very nicely after travelling very easily throughout. Once given an inch of rein he strode out purposefully in what seemed no more than a light piece of work. Visually it was a very nice debut run – jumping economically from the stalls, travelling well, forfeiting ground around the outside before quickening up nicely. Another positive can be taken from Joseph O’Brien’s post-race comments; the Classic winning jockey saying; “He´s one of the nicer types and there´ll be plenty of improvement in him”.

Ballydoyle have a good record in this race winning five of the last fourteen runnings with a number of placed horses to boot. However, there’re negatives and strong ones at that. The horses in behind that day have hardly boosted the form, the second is now rated 76, the third 78 and the fourth 80 – hardly Group One winning form. A break of one hundred days must also be overcome – has he had a setback? Also, softer ground conditions and a different track configuration must be battled, although these should not hold great fears for a horse of his quality, if the market is right. All in all there are plenty of strong negatives, most notably the form and for that reason, ‘I’m out’.

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A horse with solid credentials is Fencing, hailing from the John Gosden yard. Looking clueless from the start on debut he ran very well from an undesirable draw. The son of Street Cry won ‘his race’ only to find two others too good on the opposite side of the track. The winner is now officially rated 107, the second 95 and the fourth 89. A number of horses in behind now also hold ratings in the eighties. His maiden form looks rock solid. The two-year-old chestnut was to go one better on his next start, though. His maiden win came in Listed company at Newbury and in nice fashion. After travelling well, if a shade keenly, he picked up well to score, after seeing plenty daylight throughout, by a convincing two-and-a-half lengths. A further two lengths was put back to the third horse, a Mark Johnston inmate, now rated 95. After just two runs, further improvement in guaranteed. Gosden stated post-race that he is “really progressive” and if improving ten lbs (which I feel he is capable of) he will take plenty of beating in a race lacking true present class. He looks a lovely prospect; I just hope his seventy day break won’t affect his race sharpness. A step up in trip must also be negotiated, but his pedigree and running style suggest this shouldn’t be a problem and it may well improve him.

Godolphin have just the one runner and will be represented by Encke. The two-year-old son of Kingmambo has just had the two starts – filling the runner-up berth on debut before going on to win well in a Newmarket maiden. In the former of those runs Encke went into many notebooks after just being touched off by the potentially high class Perennial. After jumping on terms Encke saw plenty of daylight early before being tucked in behind by Frankie Dettori. He travelled very kindly and made his race winning move three out, still on the bridle, only to be mowed down late by the winner. Perennial has since gone on to run well in a decent Group Three at headquarters giving Encke’s form a boost. Encke broke his maiden at Newmarket in what was probably a below par maiden for the track. That being said he won very easily and Mahmood Al Zarooni’s post-race comments very encouraging; “Encke is an improving sort and would be one of my best two-year-old colts along with Mighty Ambition.We will look at the Racing Post Trophy”. A fair statement you will agree, but Zarooni is not massively strong in the two-year-old colt department at the moment. All in all he looks a high class prospect and will run well under Frankie Dettori.

Learn will be the Ballydoyle ‘second string’ but, will be no back number. In fact, it would not surprise me in the slightest would he to finish in front of his much more fancied stable mate. The son of Galileo has form tying in with one of this season’s top juveniles, Power. A well bred colt from the family of In The Wings and Virgina Waters, for me, he represents the race value. Ballydolye second strings also have a better than average record in this race which is worth noting.

Zip Top has been supplemented by his shrewd connections and must be monitored on that basis only. However, this may be a bridge too far and others will probably be staying on better come the business end of the race.

Many feel this year’s renewal is ‘poor’ and ‘lacks class’, but I’m of a different opinion. While present top class form is limited here many will progress into genuine group performers next year. It’s very much a race full of potential. Ballydoyle obviously hold strong claims with two entrants – the fancied Camelot and Learn. At the prices I would much rather side with the latter mentioned. While Camelot could well spread-eagle this field, I’m content to let that happen at a price of 11/8. And for what it’s worth, I don’t think he will. Be warned though, I’ve been wrong before! Encke is a horse of great quality and is sure to run well, but Fencing gets the call. John Gosden’s runner has the most potential for me in this line-up and his form is the strongest on offer. He gets the vote with a smaller saver on Learn also advised.

Advice:
2pts win Fencing @ 5/2
0.25pts win Learn @ 14/1

Racing Post Trophy Betting

Horse Racing Betting

Tomorrow Ascot will host the richest ever flat meeting staged in English history – in total 3million pounds is up for grabs. Two Group Ones will be run – the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and the English Champion Stakes. Qipco have kindly sponsored the card which has drawn a whole host of top class equines. The undoubted star of the show will be Frankel who returns to the track looking for a fourth consecutive Group One race.

1.50 – Champions Long Distance Cup

Run over two miles, the days longest race requires stamina to be at a premium. There is no doubting the races class horse, Fame And Glory. The Ballydoyle runner will win this if running to his current official mark, but he is on a recovery mission after the Irish St.Leger where he was turned over at odds of 8/13f. Supposedly, the colt had been suffering from sore shins. At 9/4 he doesn’t offer great value.

The same can be said of your current favourite, Opinion Poll, who at the moment is trading at 2/1. I certainly feel the Godolphin charge is one to get after – a long season and quick ground should conspire against him. John Dunlop is a trainer with a good record in this race having won the 2004 and 2009 runnings. The west Sussex trainer looks to have an improving horse in Times Up who has been a model of consistency throughout his career. The quick ground won’t bother him. In fact, he’ll love it. If the two market leaders don’t run well, this lad will certainly pick up the pieces.

Of the rest, I can’t see many others causing an upset in a race where traditionally, favourites and those to the fore in the market hold sway. That being said, for me, the Mark Johnston runner, Colour Vision, is grossly overpriced in a ten runner race. In a race where three-year-olds have a terrific record, three wins in the last ten years and six places, he is overpriced. He is a horse who is improving and if last Saturday’s race hasn’t taken the edge off him, he’ll go very well at a nice price. A strong stayer, the three front running horses should set the race up for him. Further strengthening his cause is the form of the stable and stable jockey, Silvestre De Sousa.

Advice:
1.5pts each-way Colour Vision @ 16/1

2.25 – Champions Sprint Stakes

A field of ten look set to go to post for the days sprint feature. Another race in which three-year-olds have a good record, it would be silly to dismiss any of their chances – even the bigger priced runners.

James Fanshawe has a fantastic record at Ascot and the Newmarket trainer is double handed here with Deacon Blues and Society Rock. The former is one of the biggest improving sprinters in training while the latter is a Group One winner with a formidable course record. Both look sure to go well, although Deacon Blues’ chances would be hindered by quick ground (personally I think he’ll be ok), but I really like the chances of the French raider, Moonlight Cloud. Fitting the profile of a Classic generation runner, she also has the class to boot.

Sent off favourite for this year’s 1000 Guineas, where she got an average ride at best, she is now making up for lost time. She dismantled a strong field last time out in the Prix Maurice where Society Rock was a full four lengths behind her. The ground was soft on that occasion and she will encounter different conditions tomorrow. Many top judges fear the worst given the ground but to me, her pedigree suggests she may even improve further on the ground.

With plenty in her favour, I think she’ll go close. I just hope her extended break doesn’t affect her race sharpness. For each-way backers I think Genki will outrun his odds of 16/1. A real strong pace could see the son of Shinko Forest finishing faster than most.

Advice:
2pts win Moonlight Cloud @ 10/3
0.25pts each-way Genki @ 16/1

3.00 – British Champions Fillies’ And Mares’ Stakes

This is a race in which I don’t think I’ll be getting too heavily involved in. Female horses, just like humans, can be highly unpredictable and leave you red faced and empty pocketed. It’s been a recurring theme in this piece, but three-year-olds really hold sway over their elders at this time of year. With two of the market rivals preferring cut in the ground, value may be found.

Crystal Capella is a horse who prefers some juice and even given the fact she’s going for three wins in four years in this race, I’m willing to take her on. Your current favourite, Vita Nova, is another who performs best in rain softened ground so I’m willing to take her on too. Bible Belt is a horse coming into this race fresher than most and given she already obtains an official rating of 111, just three lbs behind Banimpire and five lbs behind Dancing Rain, she rates a live danger. Quick ground will really aid her cause and improve the daughter of Big Bad Bob. The step up to twelve furlongs may also eke out further improvement – her pedigree says it will. The top class Fran Berry takes the ride and hopefully he’ll unleash this horse’s turn of foot late, to swoop to glory. A horse that is overpriced and offers real value.

Advice:
1pt each-way Bible Belt @ 16/1

3.35 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

Frankel will bid to emulate the late George Washington in doing the 2000 Guineas/Queen Elizabeth II Stakes double and also join the likes of Falbrav, Raven’s Pass and Rip Van Winkle who each won this race over the last decade. There is no doubting Frankel has already scaled the lofty heights set before him - his performances have been simply breath-taking, a joy to watch.

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Nearly eleven months to the day Frankel opened his account, simply brushing aside subsequent King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner, Nathaniel. His exuberant style of racing, turn of foot, stamina and sheer class has seen him stay unbeaten – winning four Group Ones and accounting for eleven individual Group One winners directly. Indirectly, his form ties him in with the best of the best, it’s quite unbelievable. The three-year-old colt seems to have very little flaws. Already twice a course and distance winner, on varying grounds, the track holds no fears. His stable, that of Sir Henry Cecil’s, are still firing out winners with one in every three horses winning. A good even pace looks guaranteed with Frankel’s two stable companions, Bullet Train, his three parts brother, and Cityscape set to run. Frankel really should win barring accidents as he has directly accounted for three of his rivals already this season while indirectly, through form lines, he has the beating of four others. Lets hope for another master class.

The only filly in the race, Immortal Verse, looks set to take her chance. The French raider is certainly a high class equine - lowering the colours of supermare, Goldikova, solidifying the previous statement. The daughter of Pivotal is unbeaten in three starts, two of those at the highest level, with one coming at the Royal Ascot meeting. Her victory in the Coronation Stakes showed her devastating turn of foot but, also her liking for soft ground. She is very much untested on a sound surface and given her pedigree, prevailing conditions are a big worry. Her course and distance form can still see her into a place, however.

Of those opposing Frankel his old foe Excelebration looks set to fill the runner-up spot. Having been turned over by Frankel in the Greenham Stakes and the St James’s Palace Stakes earlier in the season the son of Exceed And Excel has gone on to record two high profile victories – the Group Two German 2000 Guineas and the Group One Prix Du Moulin. Italian trainer, Marco Botti, has since reported his stable star to be in fine fettle and “stronger”.
Positive reports I do agree but, the chances of turning over Frankel rest on the selection failing to fire.The rest of the field is all much the same but, Poet’s Voice, can run well at a nice price. Given Frankel is a 1/3 shot a bet without the hotpot favourite is advised.

Advice:
2pts Excelebration @ 13/8 (Betting Without Frankel)

4.10 – Champions Stakes

Questions loom over ex-Australian import, So You Think. A much hyped animal this season one would have to be concerned with connections taking on this secondary engagement after a failed mission in his primary target, the Arc. A horror draw cost So You Think the race and he could only finish a never nearer fourth to the surprise, but classy winner, Danedream. One could argue he didn’t have the hardest of races there but, at the prices I’m willing to take him on.

Twice Over will bid to become only the second horse ever to win three English Champion Stakes after Tristan completed the feat back in 1882-1884. Henry Cecil’s charge has been a model of consistency throughout his career winning four races at the highest level with a host of Group Twos and Threes to boot. The Khalid Abdullah owned six-year-old has made hay over ten furlongs in recent seasons, his specialist trip. Although not a course and distance winner, the son of Observatory has plenty of top class form around the Berkshire track. Runs behind the likes of Henrythenavigator, Vision D’Etat and Byword, all Group One winners, demonstrate his liking for the track, as well as his class. Nowadays, cut in the ground sees Twice Over produce his best so current going conditions at Ascot are a concern. He handles quick ground but, is much better with some give.

Another I’m willing to take on is Nathaniel, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner. The current going will not be ideal for the soft ground loving son of Galileo. Given the going, the drop to ten furlongs from tweleve will not suit either. The John Gosden runner is a high class prospect but, conditions simply won’t suit at Ascot – he may not even run. Quick ground will not concern Dubai Prince, the beautifully actioned colt of Godolphin’s. A high class recruit from the Dermot Weld yard in Ireland injury has limited his race track appearances. A once Derby hopefully he was sold with a hefty price tag attached but, is now ready to truly test his ability. The son of Shamardal made a pleasing return to the track when comfortably accounting for older horse, Jet Away.

Jet Away has since gone to spread-eagle a decent field by nine lengths giving Dubai Prince a timely form boost. There is no doubting Dubai Princes’ potential, but his lack of experience may find him out. That being said, he does look the value in a race where many have question marks hanging over them. Henry Cecil also looks set to run his high class mare, Midday. The daughter of Oasis Dream loves to hear her hoofs rattle and the quicker the ground the better. She was just touched off by her stable companion, Twice Over, in the Juddmonte International where softish ground just found her out close home. Back on a quicker surface I fancy her to turn the tables.

That being said the horse I fancy to win the race is Snow Fairy. Ed Dunlop’s four-year-old mare has steadily improved throughout the season after a couple of lacklustre displays in her first two starts. Her third start she ran So You Think to half a length in the Irish Champion Stakes before going on to finish third in the Arc. So You Think is still the horse to beat but, with a good draw I’m hoping the French maestro, Oliver Pesiler, can get the best out of her.

Advice:
1pts each-way Snow Fairy @ 8/1

Horse Racing Betting

The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is one Europe’s premier flat races of the season. Popularly referred to as the “Arc”, it is the most prestigious horse race in Europe. Champion middle distance horses crowned as the best of the best from each generation usually meet. Unforgettable names in racing have theirs etched in history. Mill Reef, Alleged, Rainbow Quest, Dancing Brave, Urban Sea, Peintre Celebre, Montjeu, Dylan Thomas, Zarkava and Sea The Stars are just a select few to note. Andre Fabre has a superb record in this race, winning it seven times. His horses should always be noted.

Unfortunately, this year’s race looks to be a below par renewal. There is no stand out animal, but at least last year’s winner, Workforce, looks set to defend his title. The race’s most hyped horse is certainly the Irish runner, So You Think. The giant son of High Chaparral was bought by Coolmore for massive money. Already the winner of three Group Ones this season, I feel he still has a little bit to prove. All in all it’s a very open race.

The bookmakers think Sarafina, So You Think, Workforce and Galikova, a half sister to top class mare Goldikova, are the big contenders and, I’d have to agree. Sarafina currently leads the market at 7/2, further strengthening the comments of an open race.

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Although heading the current market, Sarafina still has a number of questions to answer. No doubt she is a high class mare but, her ability to handle very quick ground has to be taken on trust. The recent dry spell around the UK and France means she is opposable. Furthermore, four-year-old mares have a terrible record in the race. Similar concerns are attached to Workforce. The heavy topped son of Kings Best is more efficient in ground with cut and will do well to retain his crown in a better renewal. The return to twelve furlongs will suit, however.

Of the other two market leaders, So You Think and Galikova should enjoy the forecast quick ground. The former comes into the race with a big reputation after a much hyped season. He will need to improve, but I’m convinced the step up to twelve furlongs will eek out the necessary improvement. That being said, I’m not so sure the course will suit So You Think’s strong physique. Of Galikova, the ground should also be in her favour. The daughter of Galileo has been improving in all starts this term, but three-year-old fillies do find it tough against the boys.

With question marks to answer about the market leaders and none of them offering particular value, a value approach will be adopted. The three to note are Hiruno D’Amour, St Nicholas Abbey and Masked Marvel. All three have one thing in common - their love for quick ground. If the forecast is correct, I expect all three to run big races and out run their inflated odds. With three-year-old colts having such a fantastic record in the race, Masked Marvel looks overpriced. John Gosden’s inmate was a very convincing winner of the English Leger. A drop in trip maybe a slight concern, but the way he travelled in his last outing gives good hope. Connections obviously feel he can go well, forking out a pricey supplementation fee.

The Japanese raider, Hiruno D’Amour, looks a touch over priced seen as his form ties in with the current favourite. He was only just touched off by Sarafina last time out but, quicker conditions mean he will prove much tougher to pass.

Of the three, the Aidan O’Brien trained St Nicholas Abbey looks massively overpriced at 33/1. He is another horse closely matched with Sarafina and again, quicker ground should see him in a much better light. The son of former Arc hero, Montjeu, sweated up quite badly in his latest start but still managed to finish in close proximity to the winner, Sarafina. I will be hoping for low draws at Longchamp, which will make life much easier.

Advice:
1pt each-way Masked Marvel @ 14/1
0.5pts win Hiruno D’Amour @ 16/1
0.25pts each-way St Nicholas Abbey @ 33/1

Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe Betting

Horse Racing Betting