Racing
Grand National 2012 Runners – A Comprehensive Look at the Field
Forty runners go to post for this year’s Grand National, but worry not; we can easily narrow down the field here to help in finding the winner. We’ll go through the pros and the cons of each individual runner. Hopefully it will help!
1. Synchronised
Positives:
Represents the same connections as 2011 winner, Don’t Push It. A dual Grade One winner with victories in the Lexus Chase and Cheltenham Gold Cup so class is not an issue. Has won a Midlands National and a Welsh Grand National in bad ground – the trip is therefore not a worry. Is as tough and genuine as they come and one not to bow out of a battle easily. All ground comes a like and is officially 6 pounds well-in.
Negatives:
Top weight in such a competitive event is a worry and the son of Sadler’s Well is not exactly the biggest to be carrying welter burdens. Has no experience over the National fences and can be a sketchy jumper at times. Can also get behind early which usually leads to the beginning of the end in this race. Had a tough race in the Gold Cup and usually takes a while to recover. Is 4 weeks long enough?
2. Ballabriggs
Positives:
Last year’s winner of this race who put-up a cracking performance after taking up the lead a long way from home. The only significant mistake came at Valentines on the second circuit, but as a whole, jumped very well. Is another horse that gives you everything and as an eleven-year-old is still lightly-raced. His comeback run was satisfactory and is now sure to be spot on for a family who knows what it takes to win the Grand National.
Negatives:
Is now 10 pounds higher after last year’s win which makes this a lot tougher. The recent rain around Merseyside will not be welcome for the son of Presenting.
3. Weird Al
Positives:
Another representative from the McCain yard who won this last year. Is a class horse on his day and showed that with a good run behind Kauto Star in the Betfair after winning the Charlie Hall. When in form jumps well and travels. Also has a top-class jockey on board who won this in 2008.
Negatives:
Comes into this race off an awful run, when fancied, in the Gold Cup. Is a notorious bleeder and is best fresh. Has no course experience and the trip is still an unknown. I’d also question his attitude in the heat of a battle and is the type to throw the toys out of the pram early.
4. Neptune Collonges
Positives:
Thrice a Grade One winner who was once rated 174 in his pomp. Mark has now tumbled down to a competitive one and is one of the likelier types to excel over this extended trip. Form has been quite good this year considering his years. Jumps well in the main. Races up with the pace which is another plus.
Negatives:
Still may be a little high in the handicap and can have days where he doesn’t want to do what he’s told. Trainer also has a shocking record in the race.
5. Calgary Bay
Positives:
Jumps well and had a good season thus far. Trainer in form.
Negatives:
Massive doubts about him seeing out this trip and is not well-handicapped to do so. No course experience either.
6. Alfa Beat
Positives:
Has experience over the fences and looks one of the more likely types to stay this trip. Has a good jockey on board and the drying of the ground will help. Eight-year-olds struggle in this race.
Negatives:
Trainer has been woefully out of form with a serious virus in his yard. Although he had experience over these fences he didn’t seem to enjoy it. Rain would also be a worry.
7. Plant Of Sound
Positives:
A classy horse in his day with a Grade One success to his name. Seems fairly treated to run well and form this year has been decent. Trainer/jockey combo went close to winning this in 2002. Flat track should also suit.
Negatives:
No course experience and another who will not stay.
8. Black Apalachi
Positives:
Seems to love it over these fences and was placed in this back in 2010 when second. A fantastic jumper who comes to life here when bold front-running tactics are employed. The one run this season was an eye catching one. Has a wonderful and under-rated jockey aboard. All ground comes a like.
Negatives:
Is now thirteen-years-old and not getting any better. On the same mark when second in this two years back which won’t help given his advancing years.
9. Deep Purple
Positives:
A classy type on his day.
Negatives:
Another horse with a history of bleeding which has to be a worry over this trip. Also, major doubts about seeing it out on pedigree alone. No experience over these fences and looks badly handicapped.
10. Junior
Positives:
This race has been the target for a long time with the trainer who won this in 2008. The trip may just see him excel. His latest run has been handsomely advertised. Has won at Royal Ascot and at the Cheltenham Festival. Is Aintree next?
Negatives:
Another with no course experience and the fences must be a worry given his low jumping technique. Soft ground is also a no-no.
11. Chicago Grey
Positives:
A winner at last season’s Cheltenham Festival in the four miler so class and stamina don’t seem to be an issue. Gordon Elliott won this back in 2007 so knows what’s needed to win this. The jockey has also tasted success in this event. An eye-catching run last time out.
Negatives:
No experience over these fences and can often throw in the odd howler of a jump. His running style is also a major worry in that the race might be over by the time he gets going, if he jumps round.
12. Tantenen
Next! Won’t stay!
13. Seabass
Next! Won’t stay!
14. Shakalakaboomboom
Positives:
Represents a pair that have had an unbelievable season together. Very lightly raced and has experience over the fences. Has a zest for life and his running style will be suited to this race. Should give Barry Geraghty a good spin.
Negatives:
Jumping can sometimes be a problem and being an eight-year-old is a major worry.
15. West End Rocker
Positives:
Won this season’s Becher’s Chase so the fences hold no fears. Is another who looks a good candidate to stay. Ten-year-olds have a good record in this race and the recent rain around the north is sure to be welcomed.
Negatives:
Struggling to find a whole pile, but the ground drying out would be the only major one.
16. According To Pete
Positives:
Age has been no barrier this season with two good wins in competitive heats. Another who loves to see the mud fly so the rain forecast and watering will be welcome. The trainer has been is fantastic form in recent months and the jockey, in my humble opinion, is one of the best young talents in Britain. His front running style will be suited to the demands of this race.
Negatives:
Jumping can be a worry sometimes with a blunder a round nearly expected. No experience over these fences either.
17. On His Own
Positives:
In good form recently and the pick of Ruby Walsh who has won this race before. Willie Mullins is another trainer to have tasted success I this race.
Negatives:
The fact he is only an eight-year-old is a massive doubt. Jockey also worried about him going left-handed.
[image]
18. Always Right
Positives:
Third in last year’s Scottish Grand National and this horse has a touch of class. His good attitude should also stand him in good stead and is another with whom the trip might bring out a bit of improvement. In the main, jumps well. His prominent racing game will be suited to this.
Negatives:
Soft ground seems to be ideal for this big type so drying of the Aintree ground will be a slight negative. Has no experience over these fences. Last two runs have been hugely disappointing. (Has had a breathing operation since)
19. Cappa Bleu
Positives:
Former winner of the Foxhunters Chase at Cheltenham this horse has plenty class about him to be this low down in the handicap. His stablemate has been a constant revelation in this race, but yet, Paul Moloney stumped for him. Still lightly-raced, and his form this season has been very good. Good ground will be a massive boost his chance.
Negatives:
No experience over these fences and as a whole lacks the competitive experience usually needed to win this. Has had a history of bleeding too and not always consistent.
20. Rare Bob
Positives:
For a horse this far down the handicap he has a bit more class than those around him. Represents a trainer who can ready one for this.
Negatives:
Getting the trip looks doubtful.
21. Organisedconfusion
Is only seven-years-old and cannot win on that basis alone!
22. Treacle
Positives:
Second in a Grade One last time out means, strictly, he may be well handicapped to a degree. This race has been the plan since he was a three-year-old! For his age still lightly-raced. Is versatile in terms of ground and running style and has the under-rated Andrew Lynch aboard. His from this year is progressive and good. The trip may improve him further and he’s bred to be a strong stayer.
Negatives:
No experience over these fences. Yards overfull form in recent seasons a worry.
23. The Midnight Club
Positives:
Went of favourite for this race last year and completed. Seems to be the race value at the moment at 40-1 given the circumstances of last year. Represents a stable who have won this race before and comes into the race 5 pounds lower than last year. Good ground will help – it will be better than he’s raced on this season anyway.
Negatives:
Didn’t seem to enjoy last year’s Grand National experience and his form this year has been average.
24. Mon Mome
Past winner of this race when causing a 100-1 shock. Should be retired as not enjoying his racing. Can’t have him on my mind.
25. Arbor Supreme
Next! Has yet to complete over these fences.
26. Sunnyhillboy
Positives:
A horse I’ve felt could go well in a National for a little while now. Getting the trip looks likely although an unknown and comes here in good form. Again, another Jackdaws horse to note. Well-in on figures after his Cheltenham win.
Negatives:
Struggles to put good back-to-back runs together. No experience over these fences and his not the most fluent of jumpers. Is also a smallish horse which won’t help.
27. Killyglen
Positives:
Was in the process of running a cracker in last year’s National before departing four out. Now rounds from a five pounds lower mark. Grade Two Chase winner here earlier in career. Comes into this year’s race in better form than 2011. Also, has the assistance of A Grand National winning jockey.
Negatives:
I am struggling to find any.
28. Quiscover Fontaine
Positives:
Mark has obviously been kept with this race in mind. Another Mullins horse.
Negatives:
Stamina must be a big worry and French breeds have a poor record in this race.
29. Tharawaat
Next!
30. Becauseicouldntsee
Positives:
Was fancied for this last year and now 2 pounds lower. Lightly-raced type and has been in good form this season. Staying events bring out the best in him.
Negatives:
Jumping is a worry. Has fallen three times in his chase career including here last season.
31. State Of Play
Positives:
Knows this track like the back of his hand having been placed in the last two Nationals. If you had to put your life on one competing it would be this lad. Now two pounds lower than last year’s fourth.
Negatives:
Is now twelve-years-old and is not going any younger or better so the handicapper could have been kinder. Lacks mid-race tactical pace which has seen him get behind form good positions before. Stable jockey has deserted him.
32. Swing Bill
Next!
33. Postmaster
Next!
34. Giles Cross
Positives:
Very lightly-raced mudlark who is a fantastic jumper. Excels in heavy ground around Chepstow, but proved flat tracks are to his liking with a good win at Haydock last time out. Has been in cracking form this year and his jumping is his trump card.
Negatives:
No course experience and the drying of the ground won’t help.
35. Midnight Haze
Next!
36. Vic Venturi
Next!
37. In Compliance
Next! Won’t stay the trip!
38. Viking Blond
Next! Novices have a terrible record in this race.
39. Hello Bud
Next! Is now fourteen-years-old.
40. Neptune Equester
Positives:
Looks like he will excel over this sort of trip.
Negatives:
No course experience and has been badly out of form and inconsistent.
Final Thoughts
Variables like age, weight, stamina, jumping, course experience, the trainer/jockey combination and class have helped in narrowing down the forty runner field.
Positive stats:
Having a run over these fences before is crucial and those that are coming back from the previous year’s race are interesting. Runners in last season’s Irish Grand National also fair well as do those in the first eight in the betting. The Irish have a good record in this race and should be noted while racing up with the pace is a major positive.
Negative stats:
Horses carrying over 11 stone 5 pounds have a poor record as do those who have yet to win over the trip of three miles. Seven-year-olds don’t do well here along with twelve-year-olds. Stay away from confirmed hold-up horses and those not run in the New Year.
Selections
Of those over the 11 stone 5 pounds mark Synchronised, Ballabriggs and Neptune Collonges are interesting. Black Apalachi remains stimulating even though he is now 13 with State Of Play falling into the same bracket. West End Rocker is high on my list given his winning experience over these fences. The same can be said about The Midnight Club and Killyglen although; this trio have yet to win over the birch. Finally, Giles Cross is interesting from the foot of the handicap. Of those who have yet to run over the fences Neptune Collonges, Cappa Bleu, Treacle, Sunnhyhillboy and Giles Cross are worth a second look.
With Synchronised not sure to put in another good effort and being a touch on the small size he is passed over. Ballabriggs remains high on my list even though he is 10 pounds higher than last year. With Neptune Collonges being a little high in the weights with no course experience he is passed over. Black Apalachi is sure to run well, but is surely too old to win – these sentiments also echoed about State Of Play. West End Rocker is another high on the list given his winning form over the fences. Killyglen was running a cracker in last year’s race before falling four out and is now 5 pounds lower in the handicap. Treacle, Sunnyhillboy and Cappa Bleu are best of those with no course experience.
1. Killyglen
2. Ballabriggs
3. West End Rocker
4. Cappa Bleu
5. The Midnight Club
