The RSA Chase - Day Two, Cheltenham
• 31 of the last 34 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out.
• 12 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 or 8.
• 3 winning favorites since 1992, but 9 of last 14 winners started between 2nd-4th fav.
• Traditional NH bred horses won 15 from 17
• Last 17 Reynoldstown chase winners to run have been beaten.
• All 15 Feltham Chase winners also beaten (Long Run)
• Prominent racers do well.
Before winning the Albert Bartlett last year, Weapons’s Amnesty went for a spin at Leopardstown. He dropped back in trip to 2m4f, which shouldn’t have suited the horse, but ran with credit to finish 2nd to Roberto Goldback, well clear of the remainder of runners.
This year we see the same prep by Byrnes - Weapon’s Amnesty ran last time out at Leopardstown over 2m5f in a very decent Grade 1 chase, finishing 2nd with a good run behind Citizen Vic and was 3 lengths ahead of Roberto Goldback this time around. He was running on well at the end, and that shows the horse will relish a step back up in trip and he could very well be a decent bet in the RSA.
The horses form over 3 mile races is 21115, and the 5th was over national fences in a Grade 1 novice hurdle at Aintree. He can jump, stays well and is in form so not a bad bet for this race. His chase form is only 1 win from 5, but if you actually look into the races over the distance of 3 mile he is 1 win and 1 place (beaten a short head).
I am counting out Long Run based on his Feltham win, and do they really know what this horses best trip is?
Some would say the Arkle. I just don’t know, and am not backing at the price to find out here. The horse is clearly very good but I think if the trainer knew he had the winner why run both against each other here, will they both get around?
Does Diamond Harry jump too low, and will he get away with it in the RSA? He ruined his chance last year by jumping left and making a hash of the last couple of jumps, hit the second last fence where it matters and made a mistake at the last, just what you don’t need to happen at Cheltenham.
He is a classy sort and can run well, but I’ve a slight worry about the jumping left, and also does he really need a battle at the end of 3 mile here.
Punchestowns is the 3/1 favorite and looks very good. He has raced twice over the trip of 3 mile at Cheltenham and only found one too good on both occasions, that being Big Bucks. Punchestowns is not far off that horse, but in an open looking race is the price value, there will be plenty of backers, but the only winning race he has at Cheltenham is a class 3 handicap hurdle over 2m5f, and at the end of the day backers are betting on his runs behind Big Bucks and in the hope that he runs the exact same race here under different conditions.
Pandorama is not certain to go to the festival but would have been very interesting on softer going.
Weird Al is fancied by connections and they want Paddy Brennan to jock which is a plus in my books. The horse has run twice at Cheltenham and won on both occasions, so for sure he has as chance as good as any in the race.
Burton Port won’t be far away at the finish either and could be a nice each-way bet at a price.
Recommended Bet: 2 pts win and 1pt place - Weapons Amnesty @ 12/1
