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Playing the Odds
Welcome to our weekly column where we try and seek good value in some longer odds bets.
Review
So, the Community Shield failed to go to penalties for once, Stuart Appleby followed up his record breaking 59 with a 74 in Akron and New Zealand failed to thump the Aussies as predicted.
3pts Nottinghamshire to win the Friends Provident T20 at 21/10
The T20 tournament reaches its conclusion on Saturday at the Rose Bowl in Hampshire, and the bookies believe that the winner of the Cup will come from the second semi-final between Nottinghamshire and Somerset.
Somerset are the form team in the tournament with Marcus Trescothick’s side having won 10 of their last 12 matches and they boast some great batsmen including the former England opener, Keiron Pollard, Zander de Bruyn and Peter Trego. However, I fancy a talented Outlaws side including Dirk Nannes, David Hussey, Stuart Broad and Graeme Swann to win this one, and then get past Hampshire or Essex in the final.
Back Notts to win at 21/10.
0.5pts yankee Arsenal (2/1), Blackpool (7/2) and Manchester City (2/1) at approx 85/1
So, the Premier League kicks off this weekend and I fancy three away winners to start our campaign with a bang.
Arsenal have been quiet in the transfer market this summer with striker Marouane Chamakh and defender Laurent Koscielny the only significant arrivals. And, Arsene Wenger’s side have a baptism of fire as they travel to Anfield to face Liverpool on Sunday.
Roy Hodgson is the man entrusted with restoring Liverpool to the top four, and he has had to shop in the bargain bins this summer, re-signing Fabio Aurelio and picking up Joe Cole and Milan Jovanovic on free transfers.
I actually think that Arsenal could well win this one, and the 2/1 looks like great value.
Similarly, I expect Manchester City to gain revenge for their finish below Spurs last season. City are also 2/1 to win at White Hart Lane and with more quality recruitments, Roberto Mancini’s side will surely comfortably outperform Spurs this season.
Newbies Blackpool can take the points against a struggling Wigan side
Finally, I like the look of Blackpool to beat Wigan at 7/2. Promoted sides often get off to a good start in the Premier League (although they can often get found out and end up struggling). Hull famously got off to a flyer in 2008, and Burnley accounted for Manchester United amongst others at the beginning of last season.
I expect Wigan to really struggle this time around, and Ian Holloway’s side can get off to the best of starts at the DW stadium.
0.5pts e/w Martin Kaymer to win the US PGA at 40/1 (e/w 1/4 places 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pts e/w Hunter Mahan to win the US PGA at 35/1 (e/w 1/4 places 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Picking the winners of the major golf tournaments over the last year or two has been a tricky business. YE Yang was the winner of last year’s US PGA, Graeme McDowall won the US Open and South African Louis Oosthuizen romped home in the Open.
So, I am going to stick with two men that I have been following all year that I believe have the game to win their first Major championship.
Martin Kaymer would certainly have won last year’s Race to Dubai had it noe been for a freak injury. The German hasn’t enjoyed quite the same success in 2010, but there have been signs over recent weeks that his A-game is back, and I really fancy him to win a big one sooner or later.
I’ve backed Hunter Mahan each way several times this year and the Californian has rarely let me down. Mahan has been a winner twice on the PGA Tour this season, including last week at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational. Eleven of the last twelve US PGA winners have recorded a win earlier in the year and so I’m going to stick with the 28 year old to land a major title.
