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Welcome to our weekly column where we try and seek good value in some longer odds bets.
If Henrik Stenson ever decides to shoot four consecutive good rounds this year, instead of three good ones and a real dud, then we might be in with a chance of a payout. Still, we had a 2.5 point profit on Leo’s Lucky Star being placed in the Blue Square Handicap Chase.
1pt England to beat Italy by 11-15 points in the Six Nations at 11/2
Probably the main surprise of the opening weekend of Six Nations action was England’s margin of victory over Wales at Twickenham. Martin Johnson’s side certainly looked much better than they did in the autumn internationals and their 30-17 win was a good start to their campaign.
Italy, however, looked short of ideas and shape in their defeat to Ireland who should, really, have demolished the visitors. The wooden spoon yet again beckons for Italy and even with home advantage, England can continue their improvement on Sunday. It won’t be a walk in the park, but a winning margin of 11-15 looks realistic.
1pt e/w Manuel Osborne-Paradis to win the men’s downhill at the 2010 Winter Olympics at 7/1
Whilst Manuel Osborne-Paradis can be inconsistent, as we have seen at Val Gardena and Wengen this season, on his day he can be extremely competitive.
The reason I will side with Osborne-Paradis in this event is because he benefits from home advantage. He is a member of the Whistler Ski Club and the Dave Murray Downhill is his home run. With a passionate home support, the 26 year old can beat some of the more well-known names in one of the Winter Olympics’ biggest events. With each-way odds available, a medal chance is well within his grasp and so he looks good value at 7/1.
0.5 pts singles,doubles and treble (total 3.5pts) Stoke City (6/1), Portsmouth (11/8) and Derby (11/5) to win in the FA Cup (combined odds approx 52/1 )
It’s the FA Cup Fifth Round this weekend and I am backing a couple of in-form sides to cause upsets.
Stoke City are unbeaten in 2010 and have enjoyed recent good results against Arsenal, Blackburn and Sunderland. A trip to Manchester City will be difficult, but I’m not sure City are resilient enough to cope with Stoke’s physical approach and with a Champions League spot still very much the priority I fancy Stoke to prevail at a standout 6/1.
Portsmouth can’t find any form in the Premier League but they should still have enough quality to see off League One Southampton at St Mary’s. There’s bound to be a terrific derby atmosphere and whilst the Saints might have already booked themselves into one cup final this week, even a misfiring Pompey should have enough to beat them.
The final team I am going to side with are Derby County who play Birmingham City at Pride Park. Whilst Birmingham’s recent form has been terrific, they were fortunate to overcome Nottingham Forest in the last round and were basically outplayed over the two matches. It was Derby who ended Forest’s recent 20 match unbeaten run and after they were unlucky to concede a last minute equaliser at Sheffield United, the Rams thumped Newcastle 3-0. Nigel Clough’s side have finally found some form and with home advantage and confidence high, Derby can win this one at 11/5.
0.5pts e/w Mukesh Kumar to win the Avantha Masters at 80/1
Golf returns to India this weekend for the Avantha Masters at the DLF Golf and Country Club. A strong local field is led by Jeev Milkha Singh but I prefer the claims of Mukesh Kumar at 80/1.
Few of the European Tour big guns have made the trip to India and so it is a wide open field. Kumar has racked up no fewer than eight victories over the last two season on the Indian tour and already has a 2010 win under his belt after his six shot win at the Aircel Players Championship. He has a second place finish on this course in the past and so looks great each-way value at 80/1.
Performance to date: +4.5 pts
