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Welcome to our weekly column where we try and seek good value in some longer odds bets.
Betting Review
Some small profits this week. Agonisingly close to top Ten finishes in Abu Dhabi were my tips Henrik Stenson and Paul Casey but my third tip Martin Kaymer held his nerve to triumph in this event. We also made a small profit on Stoke beating Arsenal in the FA Cup, although we could have done with Palace holding on at Wolves to make it a tasty 17/1 shot.
2pts double Roger Federer and Serena Williams to win the Australian Open at approx 11/4
Our original tip for the men’s title, Nikolay Davydenko, manoeuvred himself into a winning position against the top seed Roger Federer with a set and a break in their quarter-final clash. The Swiss champion’s class told in the end, however, and we should have known better than to oppose Federer at a Grand Slam.
Serena Williams has breezed into the latter stages of the tournament and with only a returning Justine Henin looking like serious opposition it should be another Slam for the younger of the Williams sisters.
I back the two top seeds to add to their incredible rolls of honour at a combined 11/4.
1pt e/w Henrik Stenson to win the Qatar Masters at 11/1
I tipped Henrik Stenson to achieve a top Ten finish in last week’s Abu Dhabi championships and despite a final round 67 Stenson fell just short, tying for 21st place. He has a terrific record in Qatar, however, with a win, three runners-up finishes and a seventh place in his last five appearances.
I fully expect Stenson to be challenging for the Race to Dubai title at the end of the year and to make Colin Montgomerie’s Ryder Cup team. Even with the likes of Martin Kaymer and Charl Schwartzl in great form I think Stenson can win in Qatar, but I am going to go ‘each-way’ just in case he ends up with another narrow second-place finish.
0.25pts yankee (total 2.75 pts) Arsenal, Ajax, West Ham, Nottingham Forest at around 20/1
Four odds against football bests make up our accumulator this week.
Arsenal are a stand-out 7/5 to beat a misfiring Manchester United side at the Emirates on Sunday and leapfrog their rivals in the Premier League table. I also like the chances of West Ham who welcome a woeful Blackburn side to Upton Park and who are likely to feature ex-Rovers striker Benni McCarthy in their line up. West Ham are 11/10 to secure a vital three points in this one.
Nottingham Forest are the form team in British football. Unbeaten in the league in nineteen matches, the Reds annihilated QPR 5-0 in midweek and sit level on points with leaders Newcastle at the top of the Championship table. Billy Davies returns to former club Derby this weekend and Forest are 21/20 to keep up their tremendous recent run of results.
Finally, Ajax have a ‘must-win’ game at the de Kuip as they face Feyenoord. Martin Jol’s side sit nine points off the Eredivisie pace but can keep up the pressure on leaders PSV with a win at 11/10 in this one.
1pt e/w Steve Webster to win the Qatar Masters at 100/1 (e/w, 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5)
A consistent performer on the European Tour, Steve Webster came agonisingly close to victory in 2009 only to finish second on three occasions. He would also have secured a top Ten Finish last time out had it not been for a disappointing third round 74 in Abu Dhabi that left him tied for 21st place.
Webster has a good record in Qatar – five top Twenty Finishes – and at 100/1 I’m prepared to give the Englishman a chance to impress in this one.
Performance to date: -12 pts
