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Welcome to our weekly column where we try and seek good value in some longer odds bets.
Review
We had a small profit last week after backing Cape Blanco to win the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Whilst Harbinger might have won in style, the 6/1 each way that we took on Aiden O’Brien’s star pupil ended in a profit.
1pt e/w Palace Moon to win the Stewards Cup at 8/1 (e/w 1/4 places 1,2,3,4)
With a big field, the Stewards Cup promises to be a competitive but difficult to predict race. There are lots of high quality runners and I could make a decent case for half a dozen runners including Genki and Sir Michael Stoute’s Enact.
In recent years, the fancied horses have generally gone on to win the race, with Conquest’s victory in 2008 at 40/1 being the one exception. Local trainer William Knight has already had a week to remember following the victory of Illustrious Blue in the Goodwood Cup, and his mount Palace Moon, who may well have Kieron Fallon on board, has been placed in two big handicaps so far this season. He is talented enough to win a big one and can do so on Saturday at 8/1.
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1pt e/w Felipe Massa to win the Hungarian GP at 9/1 (e/w 1/5 odds places 1,2,3)
If we needed a little controversy to spice up this season’s Formula One World Championship, we certainly got it last time out with Ferrari fined $100,000 for breaking the ‘no team orders’ rule. Felipe Massa was denied a race win after the team ordered him to cede to teammate Fernando Alonso but I believe the Brazilian can bounce back on style at the Hungaroring this weekend.
Massa generally goes well at the Hungarian circuit (a freak qualifying accident that nearly killed the driver in 2008 apart) and the sympathy towards the talented driver from all corners of the pit lane will be at an all time high after last week’s events. He needs no motivation, and with the Ferrari looking clearly the fastest car on the track right now, it might only be Alonso that he has to beat this weekend. At 9/1, he looks superb value.
0.5pts e/w Johan Edfors to win the Irish Open at 20/1 (e/w 1/4 places 1,2,3,4)
The Irish Open has been an intriguing tournament already with some low scores and the disqualification of Robert Rock hitting the headlines. Ross Fisher has made the early running, but there are some strong names near the top of the leaderboard including Darren Clarke, Rory McIlroy and Padraig Harrington.
However, I like the look of the well-placed Swede, Johan Edfors, at 20/1. Edfors shot an excellent 67 in the first round at the Killarney Golf and Fishing Club and whilst the 34 year old has had a mixed season, he has placed well in several European Tour competitions.
Edfors finished in the top Ten in Malaysia and China and had an excellent T8 finish in Loch Lomond a couple of weeks ago. It has been four years since the Swede won a European Tour event but he was second in 2009 and with a consistent weekend he could help us to a profit at long odds.
