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Welcome to our weekly column where we try and seek good value in some longer odds bets.
Review
A frustrating week this week. Stoke did the business for us against Portsmouth before Mallorca cost us a nice profit by losing their first home match of the 2009/10 season. Stacey Slater (not Ian Beale) killed Archie in Eastenders and Ross Fisher had a terrible WGC World Matchplay, losing in the first round to Thongchai Jaidee.
1pt Ireland to beat England in the Six Nations by 6-10 points at 11/2
It’s a tough match to call at Twickenham as England try to continue their 100% Six Nations record in 2010 against a bruised Ireland team, soundly beaten in Paris last time out.
There’s nothing between the sides in the match betting. England are probably not as good as their results suggest (although they weren’t entirely convincing in Italy) whilst Ireland haven’t become a terrible side after one defeat. I think the Irish have enough to get their campaign back on track and so I back them to secure a 6-10 point win at 11/2.
1pt Madison du Berlais to win the Kempton Racing Post Chase at 10/1
There’s a strong field for this Saturday’s Racing Post Chase at Kempton with the likes of Nacarat, Henry Daly’s Grand National hope Possol and the Venetia Williams pair of Atouchbetweenacara and Something Wells.
However, I like the chances of the King George VI Chase runner-up Madison du Berlais. Even though David Pipe’s horse will concede 4lb and more to his rivals this weekend, at 10/1 I prefer Madison to rivals Miss Mitch, Fistral Beach and Trabolgan.
1pt e/w Alvaro Quiros to win the Phoenix Open at 45/1 (e/w 1/4 odds places 1,2,3,4,5)
Whilst most of the pre-tournament focus has been on the desert king and favourite Phil Mickelson, there’s also been much talk of the European’s domination of the recent WGC World Matchplay event in a Ryder Cup year.
Whilst World Matchplay winner Ian Poulter and Race to Dubai hopeful Martin Kaymer might be leading the European contingent in Arizona, I like the chances of the Spaniard Alvaro Quiros. Whilst it may be his first appearance at this course, his three top fifteen finishes in Dubai, Qatar and Abu Dhabi were impressive. Quiros is a big hitter which will be suited to the Scottsdale course and at 45/1 he has a great chance to triumph in the desert this weekend.
0.5pts singles/doubles/treble (total 3.5pts) Stoke City (4/1), Aston Villa (7/2) and Celtic (21/10) – combined 60/1 approx
A football treble this week, and I was astonished to see that Stoke City are 4/1 to beat Arsenal at the Britannia stadium on Saturday.
Tony Pulis’ side have yet to lose a match in 2010 and recent performances against Manchester City and Portsmouth have been excellent. Arsenal were comfortably beaten 3-1 at the Britannia in the FA Cup recently, and at tasty odds I fancy Stoke to further dent the Gunners’ title ambitions.
Aston Villa continue to improve under Martin O’Neill and are 7/2 to beat Manchester United within 90 minutes in the Carling Cup Final on Sunday. United are likely to take this match seriously and field a strong side, but I really think that Villa have enough talent and firepower to cause United some problems. It reminds me a lot of the 1994 League Cup Final where a rampant, successful United team were beaten 3-1 by Ron Atkinson’s talented Villa side. At 7/2, the underdogs look like great value.
Celtic can breathe some life into the Scottish Premier League title race with an unlikely win in the Old Firm derby on Sunday. Whilst their form hasn’t been terrific of late, the winter additions to Tony Mowbray’s side are all quality, and it is an absolutely ‘must-win’ game. They’ll need to perform well and have a bit of luck, but at 21/10 I think they can snatch a vital win.
Football Betting
Performance to date: -5.25pts
