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Whilst this year may be the first ATP World Tour Finals, the tournament has actually been existence in various guises since Stan Smith won the Masters Grand Prix event back in 1970. The event became the Tennis Masters Cup in 2000 where it first appeared in its current format and from 2009 it moves to the O2 Arena London and will combine both the ATP singles and doubles events.
Qualification for the event this year went down to the final tournament in Paris with the Spaniard Fernando Verdasco claiming the final spot at the expense of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. He joins Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Juan Martin del Potro, Novak Djokovic and Nikolay Davydenko at the showpiece event. A late addition to the tournament was Swede Robin Soderling who was called up after world number six Andy Roddick was forced to withdraw with a knee injury.
Unsurprisingly, the Swiss champion has been installed as 5/2 favourite for the title. Federer has won the end of season event in four of the last six years but went out in the group stages in 2008 when a combination of injury and defeats to Gilles Simon and Andy Murray eliminated the former champion.
The former Masters champion has had a good 2009 reaching each of the four Grand Slam finals. Defeats to Nadal in Australia and del Potro in the US were compensated by a first victory at Roland Garros and a sixth Wimbledon title. A surprise early defeat to Julien Benneteau in Paris wasn’t the perfect preparation for this event although he has probably the slightly easier of the two groups. He meets Murray, Verdasco and del Potro in the group stages.
Djokovic is on a rich run of form and comes to London as the reigning Masters champion and second favourite. His win in Paris in a terrific final means confidence is high and he should be able to see of the challenges of Nikolay Davydenko and Robin Soderling in Group B. He also beat Nadal in Paris last week and so should have nothing to fear from facing the former world number One. I like the 6/5 available on Djokovic reaching the final.
Nadal is a 13/2 shot for the title and the Spaniard can also retain the world number One spot with a good performance at the O2. However, he’s still returning from injury and even though he saved five set points in a gutsy performance against Nicolas Almagro in Paris he went out to Djokovic in the semi-finals and I can’t help feeling that the Spaniard would have to be in peak condition to win in London.
So what of the chances of a ‘home’ winner? Andy Murray is 4/1 for the title and with Federer, del Potro and Verdasco in his group he has every chance of reaching the semi-finals. As with Nadal, Murray has recently been forced to sit out several tournaments through injury but the Scotsman did make a winning return when he beat Verdasco and Mikhail Youzhny on the way to the Valencia Open title.
Despite a hard fought victory over James Blake in Paris, a tired Murray went out in the third round to Radek Stepanek, although the Scotsman was not too upset with the defeat. He told the BBC “I won the tournament last week and played a couple of matches here too, so the preparation for London has been perfect, it’s been exactly what I needed, and I’m not going to dwell on the loss of that match.”
Murray showed he is a tough competitor and his win in Valencia proved he is free of the wrist injury that has dogged him over recent months. He looked fatigued in Paris, however, and I think the lack of recent tournaments might rule the Scotsman out of this one.
Of the ‘outsiders’ Verdasco is 33/1 and Soderling are 25/1. I can’t see Verdasco getting past both Murray and Federer whereas a fit, in-form Soderling might have a chance in Group B if he can beat Davydenko and come up against a not 100% fit Nadal. Del Potro is also going to have to repeat his US Open heroics to qualify from Group B although I wouldn’t be tempted by the 5/4 on the Argentine progressing from the group stage.
Whilst the form player entering the tournament might be the Serbian Novak Djokovic, I can’t look past Roger Federer to win his fifth Masters title. The Wimbledon champion has been terrifically consistent this year reaching all four Grand Slam finals and with a great record in this competition he can see off all comers to become only the second player after Ivan Lendl to hold, lose and then regain the ATP World Tour Champion title.
